Monthly Archives: November 2013

COP19 – Now The Fifth Successive UNFCCC Failure Is Complete

This is a reblog of Tory Aardvark’s welcome analysis of what is going on at COP19. My site recently posted on the problems facing the COP19 and how unwelcome it would be if they were successful. Tory’s posting allays many of my fears.

Tory Aardvark

That’s 5 UNFCCC COP failures in a row, an unprecedented record of failure, each Conference of the Parties has disintegrated faster than the COP that preceded it, with COP19 holding the current record.

There was never any doubt, from the outset that COP19 was going to be the biggest failure since records began, what has been surprising is the speed of that collapse, COP19 was effectively dead before it had begun.

It has just taken 5 days for COP19 to realize it was dead and hit the floor.

The make or break issue for COP19 was “loss and damage“, wealth redistribution to us regular folks and that great Green Socialist Barack Obama made sure that loss and damage was deader than Osama Bin Laden, before COP19 even started.

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President Obama Is Prevaricating Again

The President in his weekly address did it again. He  said things that are demonstrably untrue and in other cases terribly misleading.  This comes after the debacle resulting from his lying when he made assurances about keeping your medical policy under Obamacare, period!!!!  Why is he doing it again?  Because he knows, with the compliance of the Main Stream Media (MSM),  he can mislead the low information voters.  And he is happy to be doing that. See the video of the address by clicking here.

He takes credit for the increase in oil production in the US.  He has had nothing to do with it.  And he knows that.   The oil boom comes from private landowners operating on non-federal land.(See chart below.)  He cannot prevent exploitation of those reserves.


Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration based on DrillingInfo and LCI Energy Insight

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Haiyan was a massive storm and it caused tremendous  loss of life and property.  Never-the-less, exaggeration of the storm’s strength does not serve science.
This is a reblog of a posting by:


Was Haiyan the Strongest Storm Ever? No

Was Haiyan the Strongest Storm Ever?By Cris LaranoWSJ.COM 11/14/13–MANILA—When supertyphoon Haiyan, locally known as Yolanda, made landfall last Friday on Guiuan, a coastal town on the central Philippine island of Samar around 410 miles south of Manila, it was described by some as the strongest storm to make landfall in the world this year, maybe ever.

So is it?Data from the national weather bureau, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, or PAGASA, showed that Typhoon Haiyan’s intensity – measured by the wind strength at its center and the speed of gusts at landfall – Haiyan ranks at number 7 among the strongest storms ever to have hit the Philippines.It could eventually prove to be the deadliest, with the death toll currently at more than 2,300 and mounting. But among the so-called supertyphoons— those with center winds in excess of 134 miles an hour — the title goes to Joan.Known locally as Sening, that storm made landfall in Virac, Catanduanes province, north of the current devastation and around 236 miles south of Manila. When it hit, Joan had center winds of 171 miles per hour and gusts of 193 miles per hour, compared to Haiyan’s 147 mph.

Solar Cycle24 Mid-November Update

Solar Cycle 24 at November mid-month still is showing relatively high activity. The Sunspots are up and the F10.7cm solar flux is as well.  The Solen Chart below was updated on 15 November.  (Click on Chart to enlarge.)

sunspotsmidnov13solarThe green line is not the official smoothed 6 month lagging number that is used to describe the Cycles.  But it currently is showing that the increase in solar activity in the month of October is still underway in November.  Even so, this activity is well below its recent predecessors.


2020 UN Treaty: US And Europe’s Energy Use To Match The Philippines?

The target of 1 trillion tonnes of CO2 is part of the discussion underway in Poland at COP 19.  The delegates want to get a treaty in place by 2020 which all nations will sign when the Kyoto Treaty expires.  The new treaty will demand two things.  Reparations for the developing nations for the “damage” resulting from global warming that the developed nations are responsible for and an agreement by which CO2 emissions are dramatically reduced. (Click on charts to enlarge.)

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The developed nations had agreed to supply $30 billion in the period of 2010-2012.  Five nations–US, Germany, Norway, UK and Japan—gave a total of $27 billion. The desired treaty will include vast sums of money to be transferred between developed and less developed countries.  There was a study done of how much money would be needed to accomplish the objective of never letting the atmospheric CO2 exceed 1 trillion tonnes and the number was $5.7 trillion.  Not all of this is transfer money.  Much of it would go for changes to the global energy structure.

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Skeptics Are At A Huge Disadvantage Regarding Funding.

It is misinformation, largely based upon purposeful lies, that a giant conspiracy funded by Big Oil is making people skeptical of the theory of man-made global warming.  Accordingly, this supposed campaign has been so good that the majority of people do not think that global warming is a significant issue.  Surely that must be the explanation, they say.  How else could such an insignificant number of people (skeptics) be so persuasive?

Lets assume that the premise that enough money can buy opinion is factual.  If so, who is getting the money?  The skeptics or the warmers?

In summary the Warmers get more than $25 billion per year.  I am guessing here, but I “swag*” that the Skeptics pull in something in the range of $25 and $50 million at a maximum.

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Let’s Nominate National Geographic For The Hugo Award

The Hugo Awards are presented annually to the best science fiction. Science fiction is defined by Wiki as: a genre of fiction dealing with imaginative content such as futuristic settings, futuristic science and technology, space travel, time travel, parallel universes and extraterrestrial life. Their September 2013 issue featuring “Rising Seas” would probably qualify for the Hugo.


The NG cover illustration of the Statue of Liberty waist deep in water resulting from sea level rise was a major, imaginative exaggeration. The statue’s waist is more than 200 feet above sea level at present. Using the actual rate of sea level rise at Battery, NY since 1850 to calculate how long it would take to match the waist water level, resulted in a figure of about 23,500 years or so. (See the calculation by clicking here.)

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Global Temperature Data Shows No Rise For 17 Years—Meets Warmist’s Criteria For Proof Of No Man-Made Forcing

A guest posting on WUWT by Werner Brozek says that global temperature has not risen for 17 years.  The 17 years are significant in anyway you think about it, but Brozek makes the point that the warmists are on record as saying that it is sufficient time to determine if there is man-made forcing of global temperatures.  Looking at the satellite global temperature measurements by the Remote Sensing System(RSS) after 204 months (17 years) the slope of temperature anomaly is zero.   Look at this chart from the WoodForTrees org. below:

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Solar Cycle 24 October Update

The 30 day smoothed International Sunspot number for October 2013 was 78.9.  The Sun was more active as indicated by Sunspots and F10.7cm radio flux in October than any time since the middle of July this year.  The chart, by Solen, below shows this activity. (Click on chart to enlarge.)


The chart shows that the NOAA Sunspot number and the F10.7 cm flux are trending downward at month-end, indicating the likelihood that the 30-day smoothed Sunspot number will begin dropping.  A bit of prospective is that while the October solar activity was up, Cycle 24 is still much having much lower activity relative to the 3 preceding Solar Cycles.