There are a number of grids servicing the US. The Pennsylvania, New Jersey Maryland grid (PJM) is well managed. It is the largest grid in the US. It services 13 States and the District of Columbia. It is the grid that provides my electricity and it has managed to avoid brownouts and blackouts. The reason is that the ratio of fossil fuel (thermal) energy generation to wind and solar generation is 20 to 1. If Nuclear is included the ratio is 26 to1.
The chart shows the PJM Existing Installed Capacity.
The issue PJM is facing is how to make their way through the EPA and States forcing an energy transition. The following explains their fear of losing enough spare capacity to continue to make their Grid reliable:
“Maintaining an adequate level of generation resources, with the right operational and physical characteristics , is essential for PJM’s ability to serve electrical demand through the energy transition. Our research highlights four trends below that we believe, in combination, present increasing reliability risks during the transition, due to a potential timing mismatch between resource retirements, load growth and the pace of new generation entry under a possible “low new entry” scenario: · The growth rate of electricity demand is likely to continue to increase from electrification coupled with the proliferation of high-demand data centers in the region. · Thermal generators are retiring at a rapid pace due to government and private sector policies as well as economics. · Retirements are at risk of outpacing the construction of new resources, due to a combination of industry forces, including siting and supply chain, whose long-term impacts are not fully known. · PJM’s interconnection queue is composed primarily of intermittent and limited-duration resources. Given the operating characteristics of these resources, we need multiple megawatts of these resources to replace 1 MW of thermal generation.” (My highlighting added).
According to PJM this is what it will look like if the State and Feds current plans are not adjusted.
Completely unworkable. Solar, the major electrical source, only available in the day.
The “Storage” at 55,037 watts, is at present, nonexistent. Even if it were charged by excess solar wattage, it, along with the other electrical generators, would not be enough to satisfy peak demands.
PJM management wants everyone to note that the States, not PJM, have the responsibility to maintain resource adequacy on their electric systems.
The EPA has several regulations that will cause a loss of significant reliable capacity of coal based and Natural gas (Thermal Plants) plants. The following are from the PJM’s study:
EPA REGULATIONS
Effluent Limitation Guidelines: will force closing 3,400 MW thermal based capacity.
Coal Combusting Residuals: Will force closing 2,700 MW thermal-based capacity.
Good Neighbor Rule: Will force closing 4,400 MW thermal-based capacity.
STATE ORDINACES
Forcing retirement of the following thermal based capacity.
Illinois: 5,800 MW thermal-based capacity.
New Jersey: 3,100 MW thermal-base capacity.
Virginia-North Carolina: 1,533 MW of thermal-based capacity.
Indiana: 1,318 MW of thermal-based capacity.
Maryland: 305 MW thermal-based capacity.
PJM has avoided system blackouts because they maintain a 22% reserve but the 2030 projected reserve based upon their study will only be 3% .
There two organizations that are commissioned to make the Grids reliable.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC, is an independent agency that regulates the interstate transmission of electricity, natural gas, and oil.
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) is a nonprofit corporation that ensures the reliability of the bulk power system in North America, including the continental United States and Canada.
FERC and NERC have launched a joint review of the performance of the bulk power system during recent winter storms that brought Arctic air across much of North America. The review will look at winter preparation activities and gather information to help guide future winter storm preparations and operations. .The review will look at progress made since FERC and NERC completed joint inquiries into two recent winter storms, Uri in 2021 and Elliott in 2022. The team plans to deliver the results of the review no later than June 2024.
FERC, in my readings, appears to know that renewables are not reliable.
It is obvious that the transition from thermal based electricity to renewable based electricity is not under control. The PJM grid may be the most reliable large grid in the nation. And if corrections are not made, it’s reserve will be only 3% in six years, and that will spell blackouts
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