.
On November 30, 2020 Roger Pielke, jr posted “The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science”. It was subtited : “Much of climate research is focused on implausible scenarios of the future, but implementing a course correction will be difficult”.
It is almost a year and a half since posting but the problem still exists.
Posted in AGW, Climate Models, CO2, fossil fuels, IPCC, Uncategorized
When Solar Cycle 25 activity is view versus the forecasted path and comparison to that of SC 24’s actual path seems to provide somewhat different conclusions.
The comparison of SC 24 and SC 25 when viewed at the same amount of time after the cycles started make them look like they are on the same track. Look at about 30 to 31 months after cycle start, the green line (SC 25) and the brown line (SC24) essentially at the same place. Graph curtsey of Solen.com
NOAAs Spaceweather has this to say about SC25’s activity.
“ SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 9-YEAR HIGH: In a continued sign of strength for Solar Cycle 25, sunspot counts just hit a 9-year high. This plot from NOAA shows how the monthly sunspot number skyrocketed in January 2023.”
Spaceweather‘s take is versus the official forecast chart, so that doesn’t mean much at any point in time except for the end point. The first chart shows only the smoothed sunspot number.
The Spaceweather chart goes beyond the smoothed sunspot numbers with the December and January raw numbers going up rapidly. SC last roughly 11 years. On the Spaceweather chart, it shows SC 24 sunspots jumped in 2012 which is 11 years ago.
We will have to wait to see if the numbers in the coming months continue the upward trend.
cbdakota
Posted in Solar Cycle 24, Solar Cycle 25, Sun, Sunspots, Uncategorized
This has to be terrible news for Al Gore, John Kerry , Leo Dicaprio, etc.
They have been saying that their use of jet fuel and diesel fuel for ocean cruisers was alright because they have been buying offsets. What will be their excuse now?
The following posting by the Guardian titled “Revealed: more than 90% of rainforest carbon offsets by biggest provider are worthless, analysis shows |” should really shake up the global warming alarmists.
The forest carbon offsets approved by the world’s leading provider and used by Disney, Shell, Gucci and other big corporations are largely worthless and could make global heating worse, according to a new investigation.
The research into Verra, the world’s leading carbon standard for the rapidly growing $2bn (£1.6bn) voluntary offsets market, has found that, based on analysis of a significant percentage of the projects, more than 90% of their rainforest offset credits – among the most commonly used by companies – are likely to be “phantom credits” and do not represent genuine carbon reductions.
The analysis raises questions over the credits bought by a number of internationally renowned companies – some of them have labelled their products “carbon neutral”, or have told their consumers they can fly, buy new clothes or eat certain foods without making the climate crisis worse.
But doubts have been raised repeatedly over whether they are really effective.
The nine-month investigation has been undertaken by the Guardian, the German weekly Die Zeit and SourceMaterial, a non-profit investigative journalism organisation. It is based on new analysis of scientific studies of Verra’s rainforest schemes.
It has also drawn on dozens of interviews and on-the-ground reporting with scientists, industry insiders and Indigenous communities. The findings – which have been strongly disputed by Verra – are likely to pose serious questions for companies that are depending on offsets as part of their net zero strategies. https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2023/01/carbon_credits/giv-6562QtneEGS9p8ZT/ Verra, which is based in Washington DC, operates a number of leading environmental standards for climate action and sustainable development, including its verified carbon standard (VCS) that has issued more than 1bn carbon credits. It approves three-quarters of all voluntary offsets. Its rainforest protection programme makes up 40% of the credits it approves and was launched before the Paris agreement with the aim of generating revenue for protecting ecosystems.
Verra argues that the conclusions reached by the studies are incorrect, and questions their methodology. And they point out that their work since 2009 has allowed billions of dollars to be channelled to the vital work of preserving forests.
The investigation found that:
I recommend that you visit the Guardians full report. You can do that by clicking on the link at the beginning of this posting.
cbdakota
Posted in Uncategorized
The man-made global warming alarmists are trying to prevent the poor nations from getting fossil fuels to build their nations wealth. Loans to provide money to build electrification facilities powered by fossil fuels are denied. But these nations will not be denied. They will not be tricked into building unreliable wind or solar farms. China for example installs, each year, more new coal based plants than the rest of the world combined. Annual coal consumption is setting new records. And the hypocrisy of particularly of the EU Nations that have turned to coal to power their nations when their wind, and solar are unable to make up for the lost natural gas supplies from Russia. Just one more reason for the poorer nations to turn to fossil fuels.
The Oxford Union conducted a debate ” This House Believes Woke Culture Has Gone Too Far”. The last speaker was Konstantin Kisin. The attached video, his speech, can be watched by clicking here. https://twitter.com/i/status/1613830456243273730
I am not sure that those viewers of this blog that are not linked to Twitter, will be able to see this video. Please sign up with Twitter, now that it has new ownership. It’s worth it for this video.
cbdakota.
Posted in Uncategorized
(Revised Nov 13, 2022)
The following is a guest posting by Richard Cronin. He provides a well-documented discussion of how Tidal Pumping drives weather and Climate.
By Richard Cronin
There is no “climate crisis”. The internal heat of the Earth delivered to the ocean floor is grossly misunderstood.
An entirely unappreciated energy input onto the surface of our planet is Tidal Pumping. Not pumping water. Shifting our tectonic plates due to the Earth’s gyrations (Precession, Obliquity, Perihelion, and Orbital Eccentricity) in addition to our varying distance from the planetary gravity fields everywhere from the Sun out to Jupiter.
Milankovitch cycles have nothing to do with solar radiation. They have everything to do with tidal pumping. This information has been coming forward over the last decade by geologists, geophysicists, and astrophysicists. Unfortunately, these disciplines have been overlooked in the discussion about climate.
Tidal pumping by the Sun, Precession of the Equinoxes, Obliquity, Perihelion, Orbital Eccentricity, as well as planetary alignments (particularly Sun, Venus, & Jupiter) move Earth’s tectonic plates. Therefore, all of Earth’s internal heat is delivered to the surface, notably into the waters at the two (2) terminal points of the Pacific’s Ring of Fire. The seismic heat injection is Enormous. Per NASA, this energy input is approx. 99.5 % of all solar radiation but the flawed paradigm is that the internal heat of the Earth is dissipated in Mantle Convection. Mantle Convection and Subduction do not exist.
Per NASA’s very calculations: “The interior of the earth contributes more than 99.5 percent of the total heating of the surface compared with the sun!
This answer, of course is quite wrong because it assumes that 100% of the internal energy is radiated to the surface. In fact, the internal heat source drives powerful convective currents in the mantle so that nearly all of this thermal energy is lost.”
https://image.gsfc.nasa.gov/poetry/ask/a11779.html
The energy statement is true, but the dissipation of the internal heat into Mantle Convection is wrong. There is no Mantle Convection. The internal heat is delivered to the surface, specifically the ocean floor of our planet and greatly exceeds any causation from minuscule trace gases in our atmosphere.
At the Winter Solstice, the incrementally closer distance between the Sun and Southern Hemisphere induces greater plate movement across the Southern Hemisphere and greater seismicity in the Peru-Chile Trench to drive the El Niño. Alternately, these tidal stresses can find relief and induce greater seismicity in the Tonga-Kermadec Trenches to drive the La Niña. Elevated surface water temperatures near Papua-New Guinea are due to a heat plume emitted from the Tonga Trench, but the heating of these surface waters is also affected by the multi-plate, seismically active regions to the east of Papua-New Guinea, including the New Hebrides and New Britain Trenches. Ergo, sea surface temperatures are highest in these regions east of Papua New Guinea.
Current sea surface temperatures showing cooler waters in the central Pacific and elevated temperatures east of Papua New Guinea. Entirely typical of a strong La Niña:
In “Plate Climatology”, James Edward Kamis describes a single “Source Point” for the La Niña and El Niño as centered on the multi-plate, seismically active regions to the east of Papua-New Guinea. It seems doubtful to me that this region could drive the El Niño off the coast of Peru. I hold that the ENSO is a binodal condition, at either end of the Ring of Fire.
Via bathyscaphic ocean floor mapping, Hillier and Watt (2007) provided an estimate of 1.0 to 3.5 million oceanic seamounts which by definition are formed by submarine volcanoes. This estimate excludes estimates above latitudes 60 degrees North and South. See “Global distribution of seamounts from ship-track bathymetry data” in references.
The Dust Bowl years of the 1930s were caused by a strong, sustained La Niña. Drought across the plains states in summer months , punctuated by springtime flooding conditions further north.
The La Niña brings flooding monsoons across Bangladesh, while the Northern Hemisphere suffers extreme drought in the summer months. Extreme low water conditions across rivers of America’s interior as well as Europe. Yet earlier this spring the Yellowstone River flooded over its banks.
The geochemical reactions throughout the Upper and Lower Mantle are all exothermic (give off heat). Activation Energy is supplied by planetary Decompression. Fischer-Tropsch and Sabatier reactions produce methane and petroleum in unimaginable quantities. (See link). Most is diffused from the ocean floor. Land-based sources are minuscule.
Hydrothermal vents and plain old ocean floor seepage is immeasurable and these acidic discharges react with alkaline ocean waters to release the Heat of Neutralization and the Heat of Dilution.
We have been under pronounced La Niña conditions since autumn of 2020. Last year we went thru the alphabet in hurricane names. Entirely typical of La Niña.
An estimated 50 million tons of water vapor spewed from the Tonga Trench volcano on Jan. 15, 2022. This largest submarine volcano ever observed will produce a warm, wet planet for years. A Richter 7.3 submarine earthquake struck off Tonga on Nov. 11, 2022.
Areas of drought are also caused by an increase in katabatic winds. Moisture condenses on the southern face of the Himalayas, producing monsoons and floods across northern India and Bangladesh. Dry, hot winds flowing down from the Himalayas cause continuous dry conditions for Central Asia.
Significant tidal pumping stresses coincided with the Precession of the planet on Dec. 21, 2021 to tear open the Tonga Trench. Another stress-inducing event is the Perhelion, the closest approach between Earth and Sun, associated with the Earth’s elliptical orbit. The Perihelion occurs two (2) weeks after the Solstices. On April 30, 2022, there was a planetary alignment of Venus-Earth-Mars-Jupiter. On Sept. 26, Jupiter made its closest approach to Earth in 59 years. Tremendous tidal pumping stresses. Tremendous seismic energy release. Totally ignored.
References listed by date. Most of this information was issued in the last half decade. Copy and paste the titles into any web browser.
“Institute for Celestial Geodynamics” ( D. Zbikowski, et al )
“Continental Drift Theory – Unresolved Issues “
“Plate Climatology” by James Edward Kamis. Book published 2019.
“Topological inconsistency of continental drift on the present-sized Earth”
R Meservey. Science. 1969.
“Problem of Convection in the Earth’s Mantle”
E. N. Lyustikh, published in Geophysical Research Letters: 01 January 1969
“Pump-like Tidal Driving of Tectonic Plates – Plates 1” George W. Moore, AAPG Bulletin, GeoScience World, June 1, 1975
“The earth tides”
Judah Levine, December 1982 (NIST)
“Earth tides and the degassing of the Earth”
Khitarov, N. I. ; Voitov, G. I. , March 1982 (NIST)
“Global distribution of seamounts from ship-track bathymetry data”
J.K. Hillier, A.B. Watts, Geophysical Research Letters, July, 2007
—> By definition seamounts are formed by volcanic activity. Hillier and Watt estimate 1 to 3.5 million seamounts and this excludes allowance for regions higher than Latitude 60 degrees. Conservatively, active submarine volcanoes are in the tens of thousands.
“Can Earth’s rotation and tidal despinning drive plate tectonics?”
F. Riguzzi, et al, 2009
“Researchers discover new force driving Earth’s tectonic plates”
Cande & Stegman, Univ. of S. California, July 7, 2011
“On Ohmic heating in the Earth’s core II: Poloidal magnetic fields obeying Taylor’s constraint”. Jackson, Livermore & Ierley, Aug., 2011
“Earth Expansion Evidence: a Challenge for Geology, Geophysics and Astronomy”
G. Scalera, S. Cwojdzinski, National Institute of Geophysics & Vulcanology (Italy), 4-Oct-2011
“Spin-driven tidal pumping: Tidally driven changes in planetary spin coupled with secular interactions between planets.” R. Greenburg et al, Feb. 2013
“Tidal strain and tidal stress in the Earth’s interior” W. Kia, et al, Chinese Journal of Geophysics, November, 2013
“Tidal Stresses – How Gravity Heats Things Up”, Tim James, Dec. 2, 2013 ( author of ‘Astronomical: From Quarks to Quasars, the Science of Space at its Strangest’)
“Secular Increase in the Earth’s LOD (Length of Day) Strongly Implies that the Earth Might Be Expanding Radially on a Global Scale” G.G. Nyambuya ,
4-March-2014
“Asian monsoons in a late Eocene greenhouse world”
A. Licht, G. Dupont-Nivet, et al, Nature, 4-August 2014
—> “But monsoons are still poorly understood, and today’s climate models disagree about how increased carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere will alter them.”
—> “Asian monsoon began ….. recently several independent teams to around 40 million years ago.” (same duration as Central Asian drought)
“Jupiter’s effect on Earth’s climate”
O. G. Sorokhtin, et al Nov., 2014
“Stanford geologists refute coal development theory” Boyce, Nelson at Stanford 2-Feb. 2016
—> Coal, oil, and gas are NOT produced from squished trees. Fischer-Tropsch (F/T) and Sabatier reactions produce oil and gas on all planets. The only true “fossil fuel” is lignite (brown coal, soft coal, thermal coal) derived from peat bogs of the Tertiary Period. It has only 25 to 35% Carbon value.
—> Heavy crudes, petroleum tars, sub-bituminous coal, bituminous coal vent off volatiles to yield Anthracite (black coal, hard coal) which is 95% Carbon. These carbonaceous fuels all derive from F/T and Sabatier reactions.
“One Paradox of Plate Tectonics”
Laszlo Attila Horvath, July-2016
“Resilience of the Asian atmospheric circulation shown by Paleocene dust provenance”
A. Light, G. DuPont-Nivet et al
Nature Communications 4-August-2016
—> “Our results show that dust sources and near-surface atmospheric circulation have changed little since at least 42 Myr.” (same duration as India-Bangladesh monsoons)
—> “Neither Tibetan uplift nor the decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration since the Eocene seem to have changed the atmospheric pattern in central Asia,” Licht said. “Wind patterns are influenced by CHANGES IN THE EARTH’S ORBIT over tens or hundreds of thousands of years, but over millions of years these wind patterns are very resilient.”
“Pervasive upper mantle melting beneath the western US”
S. Hier-Majumber, B. Tauzin, et al Earth and Planetary Science Letters. April-2017
—> Just above Transition Region there are Carbonate melts, source of CO and CO2 by acidic attack from sulfur compounds (SO2, etc) produced in the Lower Mantle. CO and CO2 are reagents for Fischer-Tropsch and Sabatier reactions to produce methane and water. Just in the Western U.S. ALONE, centered on Yellowstone, this carbonate melt zone measures approx. 1.8 million sq. km with a thickness ranging from 25 to 70 km. Decomposing just 1 % of this Yellowstone carbonate layer would be equivalent to burning 2.3 trillion barrels of oil.
“The Very Deep Origin of the World’s Biggest Diamonds”
Gemological Institute of America, Winter 2017
—> “Culligan-like diamonds contain …. iron-rich metallic inclusions surrounded by a fluid jacket composed of methane and hydrogen.” This is a Fischer-Tropsch reaction. Iron is the catalyst.
—> Fischer-Tropsch reactions proceed as follows: CO + 3H2, under Reducing Conditions (O2 deficient) and in the presence of an Iron or Cobalt catalyst and starting at 350C, yields methane and water. Further dwell time in a geological “trap” will produce petroleum — in unimaginable quantities. Sabatier reactions perform in much the same way with with CO2 instead of CO catalysts of Vanadium and Silica. CO2 methanation.
“Spectral, spatial-statistical, and graphical evidence that gravitational interaction with the Moon assists in driving Earth’s tectonic plates Part 1”D.Zbikowski, Institute for Celestial Geodynamics, January 2018
“A global forecast for great earthquakes and large volcanic eruptions in the next decade” D. Zbikowski, Institute for Celestial Geodynamics, Sept. 2018
—> “Movement of Earth’s rotational axis with respect to the globe generates motion of the north and south rotational poles upon the surface. Motion of the north rotational pole with respect to the net surface consists of roughly circular wobbles with a quasi-annual period. The wobbles of polar motion are formed primarily from two components-the free Chandler wobble (433 days) and the forced annual wobble (seasonal, 365 days).”
“Empirical evidence for stability of the 405 kiloyear Jupiter-Venus eccentricity cycle over hundred of millions of years.
D.V. Kent, P.E. Olsen, C. Rasmussen, et al, Rutgers University , May 7, 2018
—> “Every 405,000 years, gravitational tugs from Jupiter and Venus slightly elongate Earth’s orbit, an amazingly consistent pattern that has influenced our planet’s climate for at least 215 million years and allows scientists to more precisely date geological events like the spread of dinosaurs, according to a Rutgers-led study.”
“The Ability of Significant Tidal Stress to Initiate Plate Tectonics” by Zanazzi & Triaud, Jan. 2019
“Seismic monitoring reveals tidal stresses in the Earth’s crust”, C. Sens-Schönfelder, et al, Physics World, 15-April-2019
“The phenomenon of subduction is incompatible with Earth’s surface geometry and geomorphology” Lazlo Attila Horvath, July 2019
“Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles and Their Role in Earth’s Climate”
Alan Buis, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, February 27, 2020
“Tidal modulation of plate motions”
D. Zaccagnino, C. Doglioni, Earth-Science Reviews, June 2020
—> “While mantle convection is fundamental ingredient of geodynamics the driving mechanism of plate tectonics remains elusive. ….. GPS measurements are now accurate enough that, on long baselines, both secular plate motions and periodic tidal displacements are visible.”
—> “Tidal oscillations also correlate with the seismic release.”
“Solar system planetary alignment triggers tides and earthquakes”
S. Awadh, 2021
“Beyond Plate Tectonics”by James Maxlow. Book published 1-Dec.-2021
“Links of planetary energetics to moon size, orbit, and planet spin: A new mechanism for plate tectonics”
A. Hofmeister, Univ. of Washington (St. Louis), January 2022
—> “Tug of sun, moon could be driving plate motions on ‘imbalanced’ Earth”
“The hot zones of global Mw ≥ 5 earthquakes and their decadal migration during 1989–2019”
Jin Chen & Hong Tang, Journal of Geosciences, March 2022
“Precession helped drive glacial cycles in the Pleistocene.”
S. Barker, A. Starr, Geophysical Research Letters. 26-May-2022
GLOBAL-SCALE TIDAL FORCING AND PLATE TECTONICS HAVE BOTH SHAPED THE TECTONIC EVOLUTION OF EUROPA. C. E. Detelich, et al, 53rd Lunar and Planetary Science Conference (2022)
Richard F. Cronin – BChE, MBA, P.E. (retired)
Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, Drought, ENSO, Geothermal Energy, Uncategorized
At a book signing event on 2 November, Greta Thunberg, joined the major global warming alarmists when she acknowledges that global warming is merely a cover for their real objective—destroying capitalism. The Telegraph,com. posted “Greta Thunberg: It’s time to transform the West’s oppressive and racist capitalist system”. The telegraph made the following comment:
“The 19-year-old Swedish activist has announced that as well as tackling her usual area of climate action and awareness-spreading, she has now thrown her weight behind defeating the West’s “oppressive” capitalist system.
Calling for a “system-wide transformation” at her book launch in London, she claimed that the world’s current “normal” – dictated by the people in power – has caused the climate breakdown.
She said: “We are never going back to normal again because ‘normal’ was already a crisis. What we refer to as normal is an extreme system built on the exploitation of people and the planet.
“It is a system defined by colonialism, imperialism, oppression and genocide by the so-called global North to accumulate wealth that still shapes our current world order.”
Wow, her family is middle to upper class. She is living in a capitalist nation that is nothing like her description of capitalism. One wonders where, in her youth, she has formed such opinions.
Michael Shellenberger made this comment:“Media Must Take Responsibility For Greta Climate Panic” He is right. Think of the young people that have been taken in about global warming only to learn that it is capitalism that is her real enemy.
cbdakota
The UK Daily Expressed published this blog “Putin poised to spark energy horror in UK as Russia plots to sabotage Norway gas pipelines”.
The posting begins:
“Senior intelligence officials have warned that Britain could face an energy nightmare this winter, as Russia is plotting an attack on a key gas pipeline between the UK and Norway. Following the suspected sabotage of the Russian-built Nord Stream 2 pipeline in September, experts previously told Express.co.uk that Russian President Vladimir Putin could be sending Europe a chilling message, and could strike gas pipelines and electricity cables between the UK and the rest of Europe. With Britain playing a major role in supporting Ukraine’s fight against the invading Russian forces, experts fear that the Kremlin will be looking to retaliate by plunging Britons into darkness. “
This is worrisome, because it would set in motion a major loss of life in the UK. How would the UK or NATO respond? I am hoping that it is just alarmist’s conspiracy BS.
The DailyExpress posting can be reached by clicking here
cbdakota
For more Climate Change Sanity posting enter cb-dakota.com
Posted in Uncategorized, United Nations
The forecast global temperatures are the basis of the catastrophic global warming theory. The alarmists use temperature as the goal post when they tell us that the global temperature since 1890 must not rise more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. They say if the temperature exceeds that number, it could mean Armageddon. Surely you have heard them tell us that we have about 10 more years to live if we don’t act now. And telling our young people learning in schools that their life span is going to be very short.
So shouldn’t everyone be versed in how the forecasts of global temperatures are derived by the alarmists.
The alarmists have a bunch of computers with various settings that proport to be able to capture the vast number of variables that produce the Earth’s temperature. In fact, almost none of them provide a comparable forecast into the future. When plotted out the projections by the many computers looks like bed of spaghetti.
All the squiggly lines are individual computer forecasts. The Red line is the average global warming temperatures predicted by the computers. The lower Green straight line is the mean of the actual measured temperature for this same period. Note that as the years go by, the computer forecast gets further away from the actual measured temperature.
As aside observation, can you imagine what each line would look like if not mixed in with all the others. Can you imagine how much confidence you would have for a computer that predicted temperatures that would rise and drop so precipitously over very short times. Real temperatures don’t do that.
In science, it is said that if you have a theory and you make predictions from it and it does not match actual results, your theory is WRONG, So the alarmist’s temperature forecasts are wrong and should NOT be used to make public policy.
I have worked at this topic a number of times. Pretty much the same narrative. Secrets That Global Warming Alarmists Don’t Want You To Know https://wordpress.com/post/cb-dakota.com/108-Part 3 Biased Computers is a posting that shows how the computer programmers can make the temperature forecast hotter.
Cbdakota
The chart was made by Dr. John Christy. On many occasions he has given testimony before Congress.
From CNBC Squawk Box Tweet:.
“Economist Jeff Currie of Goldman Sachs (Global Head of Commodities Research in the Global Investment Research Division): “Here’s a stat for you, as of January of this year. At the end of last year, overall, fossil fuels represented 81 percent of overall energy consumption. Ten years ago, they were at 82. So though, all of that investment in renewables, you’re talking about 3.8 trillion, let me repeat that $3.8 trillion of investment in renewables moved fossil fuel consumption from 82 to 81 percent, of the overall energy consumption. But you know, given the recent events and what’s happened with the loss of gas and replacing it with coal, that number is likely above 82.” … The net of it is clearly we haven’t made any progress.”
It is hard to get your head around the fact that $3.8 trillion has been spent with so little results. A lot of that money has been going to Crony Capitalists through subsidies and tax forgiveness.
That they have not made any progress replacing fossil fuels is understandable and that it is unlikely that wind and solar ever will. Their lack of dispatchability will forever prevent wind and solar from being the main source of power. Long term, nuclear power will have to be the main source of power with wind and solar playing second fiddle.
cbdakota
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Developed Nations will Not Fulfill Their Promises of Money to Underdeveloped Nations to combat Global Warming. Big battle to ensue at COP27.
This is not new, news. The energy crisis is crippling The EU economies. They have never fulfilled their promise to annually put big money in to the $100Billion fund for undeveloped nations to use to combat Global Warming. . And they won’t do it this year. The COP 27 will meet in Egypt and the sparks will fly.
Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, Uncategorized
Climate Change Sanity 
