Monthly Archives: August 2015

What If America Can’t Stop Climate Change?

Dr Judith Curry is a top-notch researcher who is considered a lukewarmer by 140px-Curry_2006_200dpiAnthony Watts, owner of the WattsUpWithThat blog. Meaning she is not a hard-core believer in either the church of global warming or having a level of deep skepticism.   She was once believed that man was the cause of the global warming but more research convinced her that there are too many uncertainties in forecasting future climate. Whether she is a lukewarmer or a skeptic is an open question.  Her blog, Climate Etc. is reported to get about 12,000 hits per day, demonstrating that she is very influential.

Curry recently posted “Carly Fiorina hits the ‘sweet spot’ on Climate, Etc”. From that posting she says:

“In the political battles over climate change, there are three distinct and relevant questions:

  • First, does mankind have a material effect on the Earth’s climate?
  • Second, if mankind does impact the climate, is that impact harmful?
  • And third, if we assume that mankind is harming the environment, will any given American policy or collection of policies have a meaningful beneficial impact?

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Flashback To ABC 2009 Special On Climate Change–See Their 2015 Predictions.

gwpredictions_cartoonThanks to the Daily Caller we can enter into the minds of the radical warmers and their surrogates, the national media. The Daily Caller posted “Flashback: ABC News Envisioned Apocalyptic 2015 Triggered By Climate Change”. Using the “best” minds on the planet to graphically display the terror that climate change will cause, ABC ran a special in 2009 called “Earth 2100 “. The special follows a baby girl born in 2009 through her life span with stops along the way to describe how the planet was suffering through the effects of climate change.   The first stop was 2015. You may wonder how you are missing all of these tragic happenings that the warmer scientist say would happen in 2015. But it is more likely that being a rational human, you will realize, once again, how far from the truth the great prognosticators are. These people have not changed since 2009. They just keep restarting their “end of the earth” smoke and mirrors” narratives, ignoring the need to apologize for how bad their last prediction was.

The Daily Caller quotes from the special:

“ABC News correspondent Bob Woodruff says the show “puts participants in the future and asks them to report back about what it is like to live in this future world. The first stop is the year 2015.”  A Harvard University professor says, “We’re going to see more floods, more droughts, more wildfires.”  Other voices can be heard saying that “Flames cover hundreds of square mile” and “We expect more intense hurricanes.” Another voice says, “Well, how warm is it going to get? How much will sea level rise? We don’t know really know where the end is.”


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The Hood Robin Syndrome

I am reblogging this WUWT posting by Willis Eschenbach. I could not have defined this better than he does in his posting “The Hood Robin Syndrome”. I have long argued that the science is really not primary issue. Rather it is politics where “follow the money” is an excellent guideline. These people like to tax and regulate. And of course there are those that founded this movement that want badly to replace capitalism by socialism (or in many cases—communism).

Ps I am back from vacation, visiting relatives and catching up on honey-dos. Hope to be much more active with my blogging as these and other issues are resolved.

Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

There’s a new study out, under the imprimatur of the Energy Institute of the Haas School of Business in Berkeley, California, entitled The Distributional Effects of U.S. Clean Energy Tax Credits.  As the title implies, it looks at who actually profited from the various “green energy” tax credits across the United States. SPOILER ALERT! It wasn’t the poor folks.

How much money are we talking about? Well, the paper says that from 2006 to 2012, the taxpayers have been on the hook for $18 BILLION DOLLARS to fund these subsidies, money that would have otherwise gone into the General Fund.

And just how much money is eighteen billion dollars? Here’s one way to think about eighteen gigabucks, regarding safe, clean drinking water.

Water Wells for Africa reports from their ongoing projects that on average it has cost them about $3.50 per person ($7,000 per well…

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Global Temperature Pause Now At 18 Years, 7 Months.

A special posting at Climate Depot by Christopher Monckton titled “The Pause draws blood–A new record Pause length: no warming for 18 years 7 months”  theunisonoursideshows that the “pause” in global temperatures continues.

Monckton opens up with:

” For 223 months, since January 1997, there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). This month’s RSS temperature shows the Pause setting a new record at 18 years 7 months.

It is becoming ever more likely that the temperature increase that usually accompanies an el Niño will begin to shorten the Pause somewhat, just in time for the Paris climate summit, though a subsequent La Niña would be likely to bring about a resumption and perhaps even a lengthening of the Pause.”

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Au Revoir, Adios, Auf Wiedersehen, Goodbye OPEC

OPEC faces serious challenges. Bank of America is quoted as saying that OPEC is frackingamericansimages“effectively dissolved”. And the author of the Telegraph posting “Saudi Arabia may go broke before the US oil industry buckles” reports “The cartel might as well shut down its offices in Vienna to save money.”

OPEC Cartel

Well, is the OPEC collapse imminent?   Probably not, but the major nation in OPEC, Saudi Arabia, appears to be in trouble and quoting from the Telegraph posting:

It is too late for OPEC to stop the shale revolution. The cartel faces the prospect of surging US output whenever oil prices rise. If the oil futures market is correct, Saudi Arabia will start running into trouble within two years. It will be in existential crisis by the end of the decade.

The contract price of US crude oil for delivery in December 2020 is currently $62.05, implying a drastic change in the economic landscape for the Middle East and the petro-rentier** states.

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Has OPEC Been Successful In Closing Down The US Shale Oil Business?

In the fall of 2014, Saudi Arabia began increasing the amount of crude oil they put up for sale. The objective is often thought to be an attempt to drive US oil fracking out of business. The price was expected to drop below the point where it was profitable to put in new wells and perhaps even close off many of those already in production. The oil rig count in October of last year was 1608 and it now stands at 747 Telegraph has posted : “Oil slump may deepen as US shale fights Opec to a standstill” gives a current status in this battle. And it seems to be going pretty well for the US and not so good for Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC members. From the Telegraph posting:

“There was a strong expectation that the US system would crash. It hasn’t,” said Atul Arya, from IHS. “The freight train of North American tight oil has just kept on coming. This is a classic price discovery exercise,” said Rex Tillerson, head of Exxon Mobil, the big brother of the Western oil industry. Mr. Tillerson said shale producers are more agile than critics expected, which means that the price war will go on. “This is going to last for a while,” he said, warning that any rallies are likely to prove false dawns.

The US “rig count” – suddenly the most-watched indicator in global energy – has fallen from 1,608 in October to 747 last week. Yet output has to continued to rise, stabilizing only over the past five weeks.”

usrigcountandcrudeproduction by bloomberg etc

Others are noting that innovation is cutting costs of new wells:

“We’ve really only begun to scratch the surface. Shale can keep growing by 500,000 to 700,000 b/d easily,” said Harold Hamm, founder of Continental Resources. His company has cut costs by 20pc to 25pc over the past four months.

US shale will “roll over” to some degree as producers exhaust their one-year hedges and face the full shock of lower prices. But it is hazardous to bet too heavily on this assumption.

IHS said an astonishing thing is happening as frackers keep discovering cleverer ways to extract oil, and switch tactically to better wells. Costs may plummet by 45pc this year, and by 60pc to 70pc before the end of 2016. “Break-even prices are going down across the board,” said the group’s Raoul LeBlanc.

Shale bosses have been lining up at this year’s “Energy Davos” to proclaim the fracking Gospel. “We have just drilled an 18,000 ft well in 16 days in the Permian Basis. Last year it took 30 days,” said Scott Sheffield, head of Pioneer Natural Resources.”

We’ve cut spud-to-spud time to 19 days,” said Hess Corporation’s John Hess, referring to the turnaround time between drilling. This is half the level in 2012. “We’ve driven down drilling costs by 50pc, and we can see another 30pc ahead,” he said.”

Large scale frackng has precipitated a number of geopolitical issues such as the stability of Middle East nations and on some nations that rely on crude oil sales to balance their budgets.  My next posting will look at some of these problems.

One thing though noted in the Independent posting is that:

“The market is primed for a sudden spike in prices if anything goes wrong. It is more than ever at the mercy of geopolitical events. One thing is for sure. If and when prices rebound, US shale is ready to sweep in with lightning speed to snatch yet more market share. Opec has met its match.”

Thanks to the US oil industry ingenuity, OPEC seems to be losing the fight. cbdakota




Global Temperature Only Lowered By 0.01C. Is It Worth All The Pain?

President Obama unveiled the “Clean Power Plan” prepared by the EPA. It claims much but testimony EPA Administrator, Gina McCarthy, gave at a Congressional hearing make those claims very questionable. She does not dispute that global temperature will only be lowered by 0.01degree C., — we goreandhairdryermust set the example for the rest of the world, she says. But 8 months ago, Obama agreed to China increasing their CO2 until 2030 at which time it will be three times greater than our emissions. What kind of example is that? The health improvements are touted but many are based on “secret science” that she wont let anyone see outside the agency. And some is based upon hypothetical set ups; hence, make-believe science. She was quoted as saying she “doesn’t actually need raw data in order to develop science. That’s not how it is done?” Since when, other than on Planet EPA?

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