A dramatic global temperature rise has been forecasts by the alarmists for decades. Sea level is forecast to reach record heights as the globe’s ice melts. At every opportunity they tell us that any major storm or weather disruption is due to rising temperature. We are told that this rise in temperature must be stopped. A little more than degree C has the potential to be existential. How do they know this? Their climate computers tell them. These computers tell them that the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from the burning of fossil fuel will wreak this havoc.
The good news is that these computer forecasts of dramatic temperature rise are disproven by actual measurements of global temperature.
One of the recent examinations of the latest batch of climate computers (CMIP-6) was conducted by McKitrick and Christy.
The above is a screen capture is from a Zoom lecture given by John Christy. The upper straight line is the mean temperature forecast of the CMIP-6 and historical forecasts made by earlier computer models. The lower Green straight line is the mean of the actual measured temperature for this same period. The two lines , computer and observed global temperature trends, intersecting at zero in 1979 and based on 1979 to 2019 only.
The actual temperature measurements are a blend of satellite and radiosondes (weather balloons) . They confirm one another.
These are the predictions from which generate their alarming pronouncements. They are not reality.
Science News, for 2/29/20 carries an article titled “Earth’s hot future” and subtitled “As climate models improve, worst-case scenarios are hard to pin down.” The subtitle does not inspire confidence is the predictions. Then the article talks about how good these models are but they are missing an important piece of knowledge, that being the impact of clouds on climate.
Note the jumble the computer ensemble produce. The individual computers shoot up and then drive downward with a vengeance. If you could see it clearly, you would reject its output. Real temperatures do not swing that wildly. So they put all the computer’s output together to average out a mean. The one consistent feature of these computers is that they all show rising temperatures. Is that a “man-made” program bias having little to do with the science? (If the climate computers worked, they would only need one model, not dozens.)
Another way of visualizing this is the following chart:
The forecast from the computers is for warming to rise at +0.40C per decade. The observed (actual) warming has been +0.17C per decade.
Christy says about the performance of the Climate Models used by the warmers:
”You know in any other science, if you have a period of time you’re testing and you go through the first period and you’re already off by a factor of two and a half, on the rate of warming.
You say I better stop i’m going to go back and see if I can fix something that isn’t the way and climate moms they let it go, because the scary story is the one that seems to get the most attention.”
The charts are from an ICSF Zoom Meeting featuring John Christy as the main speaker. The link is ICSF Zoom Meeting – Zoom. You will need a password and it is S+R$j6N%.
The Christy and McKitrick format for the tests of the CMIP-6 can be found on this website Pervasive Warming Bias in CMIP6 Tropospheric Layers (wiley.com).
The computers +0.40C per decade imply that the global temperature would increase by 1.2C by 2050’s. The alarmists target is to achieve net zero CO2 by that date.
Dr Roy Spencer’s recent posting reviews sea surface temperature versus climate computer prediction. He shows a chart that demonstrates that “Global Ocean Temperatures are Warming at Only ~50% the Rate of Climate Model Projections”. It is another good gauge showing how the alarmists are not playing it straight. He wraps up his posting with the following :
“Seldom is the public ever informed of these glaring discrepancies between basic science and what politicians and pop-scientists tell us.
Why does it matter?
It matters because there is no Climate Crisis. There is no Climate Emergency.
Yes, irregular warming is occurring. Yes, it is at least partly due to human greenhouse gas emissions. But seldom are the benefits of a somewhat warmer climate system mentioned, or the benefits of more CO2 in the atmosphere (which is required for life on Earth to exist).
But if we waste trillions of dollars (that’s just here in the U.S. — meanwhile, China will always do what is in the best interests of China) then that is trillions of dollars not available for the real necessities of life.
Prosperity will suffer, and for no good reason.”
The climate predicting computers overstate the global temperatures by a wide margin as can be seen when compared to actual temperature measurements. Alarmists use them to put fear in to the pubic. Their predictions should never be used for making policy.
OK, now show this to your kids.