Most Revealing Chart Part 1 Computer Forecasts versus Actual Temperature Measurements.

The graph below is probably the most revealing of all the graphs used when discussing man-made global warming.  John Christy presented it to a US Congressional hearing in 2017.  The graph’s X axis shows years and the Y axis is global atmospheric temperature  anomalys in  degrees Centigrade.   (“Anomaly” degrees, is the measurement of the change in temperature rather that the actual temperature.  The actual temperature is somewhere  around 15C.  The exact temperature can be contentious.  So the anomaly is usually charted.)

The red line is the “average of 102 IPCC CMIP-5 climate model runs.  The man-made global warming theory doesn’t have one model.   They had 102 models all churning out forecasts of the future global temperature. All with different assumptions of what will the future look like.  All of them show rising temperature based  primarily the  amount of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere.  The forecast spread is all over the place based upon a number of other assumed forces.  Christy averaged the forecasts and that is  source of the red line.

Then Christy added the atmospheric  temperatures that were  MEASURED,  by satellites and weather balloons.

So, stating the obvious, we have actual measured temperatures versus forecast temperatures. One can note that over the time, the separation between actual and forecast has gotten greater and appears that trend will continue



These forecast high temperatures are what propels the catastrophic man-made global forecasts of sky high sea levels, melting glaciers, mass migrations,  mass extinction of species, terrifying  severe weather, and deadly heat.  The media revels in these forecast disasters and gives them top billing.  But why would you believe this will be the Earth’s future?   Surely if everyone knew this or have just learned it, why would they be persuaded to foist these irrational conclusions upon us?

You may be thinking that only one model would be necessary if they really could forecast average global temperatures.



2 responses to “Most Revealing Chart Part 1 Computer Forecasts versus Actual Temperature Measurements.

  1. Hi Chuck,
    You wrote: “The graph below is probably the most revealing of all the graphs used when discussing man-made global warming.” But you did not directly state what it revealed.

    “Temperature (Surface to 50k ft)” It seems no one but one wants to consider the one temperature which at least Arrhenius considered important in a consideration of a radiation balance of the earth-atmosphere-sun system. But we do not consider the greenhouse effect which is clearly is about earth-atmosphere-sun radiation balance. This temperature is the temperature of the earth surface whether it be land or sea. And when seas and lakes freeze over they become solid (land).

    No, we discuss global warming and climate change without trying to understand the much simpler radiation balance system. Which, this simpler system, must include a consideration of the surface temperature because it is localized differences of surface temperatures, hence a difference in localized air temperatures which are in contact with these different surfaces, that starts the vertical convection which lifts parcels of warm air until the air of the parcel cools and a condensation of the water vapor in it begins, if the ‘cloudless’ rises high enough to cool enough for any condensation to begin.

    If one does not start at the beginning, anything that follows must be nonsense.

    It well be interesting to read what your response might be.

    Have a good day, Jerry

    • Jerry you are overthinking the issue. The warmers are focusing on average global temperature as the detonator that sets off the massive changes in sea level, destructive weather, etc. Average global temperature is their way of telling us how bad things are or are going to be.
      Technically one can argue about the validity of “average global temperature”, but at the current time, the non-scientists, which are the major audience, don’t know that it is flawed and may not ever care
      But pointing out that the warmers temperature forecasts are way high and not in step with reality, should get their attention. And if you think that it is nonsense to point that out to the readers, so be it..

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