The forecast global temperatures are the basis of the catastrophic global warming theory. The alarmists use temperature as the goal post when they tell us that the global temperature since 1890 must not rise more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. They say if the temperature exceeds that number, it could mean Armageddon. Surely you have heard them tell us that we have about 10 more years to live if we don’t act now. And telling our young people learning in schools that their life span is going to be very short.
So shouldn’t everyone be versed in how the forecasts of global temperatures are derived by the alarmists.
The alarmists have a bunch of computers with various settings that proport to be able to capture the vast number of variables that produce the Earth’s temperature. In fact, almost none of them provide a comparable forecast into the future. When plotted out the projections by the many computers looks like bed of spaghetti.
All the squiggly lines are individual computer forecasts. The Red line is the average global warming temperatures predicted by the computers. The lower Green straight line is the mean of the actual measured temperature for this same period. Note that as the years go by, the computer forecast gets further away from the actual measured temperature.
As aside observation, can you imagine what each line would look like if not mixed in with all the others. Can you imagine how much confidence you would have for a computer that predicted temperatures that would rise and drop so precipitously over very short times. Real temperatures don’t do that.
In science, it is said that if you have a theory and you make predictions from it and it does not match actual results, your theory is WRONG, So the alarmist’s temperature forecasts are wrong and should NOT be used to make public policy.
I have worked at this topic a number of times. Pretty much the same narrative. Secrets That Global Warming Alarmists Don’t Want You To Know https://wordpress.com/post/cb-dakota.com/108-Part 3 Biased Computers is a posting that shows how the computer programmers can make the temperature forecast hotter.
The chart was made by Dr. John Christy. On many occasions he has given testimony before Congress.