Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) predictions based upon the output of their climate models have a poor record for accuracy. Examples of zombies would be those that say Arctic sea ice will melt away completely by such and such date. The date came, it didn’t happen. But like a zombie, it comes back to life when another expert tells us the Arctic sea ice will melt away completely by some new date.
This posting will high light a few of the failed predictions.
Posted in AGW, Al Gore, Climate Alarmism, ClimateGate, CO2, Drought, Environment, Famine, glaciers, Global Temperatures, Ice Melt, IPCC, Sea Ice, Sea Level
Solar Cycle 24 activity is relatively low as the month of February comes to a close. On February 27, only three visible Sunspot clusters could be seen. Solar Cycle 24 International Sunspot smoothed number for February 2015 looks like it will be about 65.
Posted in AGW, Astronomy, NASA/GISS, Solar Activity, Solar Cycle 24, Sun, Sunspots
Dan Kahan, Yale law professor and communications researcher, posted a paper in June, 2014, that reported on his work to try to remove bias when testing a subject’s knowledge. That paper can be reviewed by clicking here.
From reports on Fox News, Kahan submitted the paper and it will be published by Advances in Political Psychology. The paper’s intention was to determine what the general population thinks they know about anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Kahan used a quiz containing 9 questions. Something in the range of 2000 people were randomly chosen to take the quiz. The numbers of skeptic and warmers were about equal in number. He computed each testee’s answers. He then compared the skeptics and warmers answers for each of the nine questions. The results according to a report found that the skeptics answered more questions correctly than did the warmers. The difference was small, with the skeptics average scoring 4.5 correct versus the warmers that got “about 4” correct.
If you are comfortable with eliminating private property; if you are comfortable with eliminating Free Enterprise; if you are comfortable with dumping our form of government for socialism or communism; if you are comfortable with having the UN rule the world; then you are comfortable with people that want to use the man-made global warming theory as the instrument to achieve all of the above. And the kicker is they do not care if the theory of man-made global warming is wrong.
As most of you are not in accord with those objectives, it’s likely that you are not aware that the founders of the global warming movement have those things in mind.
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First the Keystone XL pipeline (KXL) was not authorized by President Obama because he and the Governor of Nebraska were worried about pipeline failure. I wonder if they considered how many pipelines are in operation today and how few problems they have caused. Over 2.4 millions of miles of underground pipelines in the U.S. carry natural gas and liquid petroleum. The majority of those miles are carrying natural gas; however, over 180,000 miles of pipeline move liquid petroleum. Below are two maps showing the major routes of these pipelines:
Petroleum Pipelines
A study was published in 2012, “Sudden transitions and grand variations in the solar dynamo, past and future” by Cornelis DeJager and Silvia Duhan . The authors attempt to predict whether Solar Cycle 25 will transition to a “Grand Minimum” or “Regular “ Episode. They believe the Sun is transitioning from a “Grand Maximum” to one or the other aforementioned Episodes. This study is being used because their prediction was based upon knowing the Solar Cycle 24’s maximum Sunspot number which we now have.
First a look at the “Episodes” that the authors have placed the Solar Cycles from 1620 to the present.
The diagram shows the sunspot numbers plotted against time. The three Grand Episodes are marked by their different colors. They are separated by vertical black lines.
Solar Cycle 24 surprised everyone with a second peak. Now the maximum appears to have occurred, as mentioned in last months posting. The Cycle is still active and will continue to be for years to come; however, the monthly average of Sunspot numbers are in decline. The Solen Info Chart “Solar Cycle 24 Progress is shown below. The South Polar Field (Rsouth) has been the source of most of the Sunspots since mid-year 2012. Its activity is declining. Solen Info projects that the smoothed International Sunspot number will continue its down-tend. As a reminder, the smoothed number is a 12 month average six months behind the most recent reading. The number (Ri smoothed) that Solen forecasts for January 2015 is 66.5.
Posted in AGW, Solar Activity, Solar Cycle 24, Sun, sun and climate, Sunspots
All engineers and scientist should be skeptics. Most engineers are because if they build a bridge or an automobile, or what ever, it better work right away. Some scientists are making a lot of predictions about events to come 25, 50 or 100 years into the future. Well that’s their privilege, but it probably would be well to take a skeptical view on any prediction years into the future.
The Pacific Research Institute has produced several videos that are meant to challenge “appeals to authority’ like all scientist believe in …….
Ehrlich’s solutions were for the government to take charge. Impose taxes, new regulations etc. Doesn’t that seem very much like what is now underway to “stop catastrophic global warming” some day out in the distant future. Remember that name, Paul Ehrlich. He wrote another book which was just as wrong as the “Population Bomb”. By the way, this other book was co-authored by John Holdren. Holdren, in case you don’t remember, is President Obama’s Science Czar. Aren’t we lucky.
cbdakota
Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, CO2, Domestic Energy, EPA, Famine, Government Regulations, IPCC
The warmers know that CO2 by its self is insufficient to get the predicted temperature rises that they need to scare you with future weather of catastrophic proportions. So they decided that there is a positive feedback that occurs. The theory goes like this— For every little temperature increase resulting from CO2 interrupting thermal IR headed back into space, that interruption will cause some small amount of temperature increase which in turn will force more water vapor into the atmosphere. So this increase in water vapor, the big green house gas, absorbs more thermal IR and the temperature goes up.
The following illustration (by Dr. David Evans) begins with the increase in global temperature from a doubling (say 400ppm to 800 ppm) from “established science—1.1C. Then the warmer’s inferred amplification, will increase the temperature by 3 fold resulting in a final temperature increase of 3.3C. That is what the climate models produce and that is where the warmers get their scary scenarios.
Figure 1 Amplification:
The Sun generates the energy that warms the Earth. The Sun’s extreme surface temperature (In the range of 9900 F (5500 C) results in the emission of electromagnetic radiation. (ER) The ER most obvious to us is sunlight. But in addition, gamma rays, X-rays, and Ultraviolet are emitted and reach the Earth. This ER is called short wave because the wave length (crest to crest) is in meters 0.0000007 or shorter.
The above illustration shows the range of ER. All the way from Gamma rays to Radio waves. The most energetic are those from the Sun. In one second, light can travel 299,792kms (186,000 miles). All ER travel that same distance in a second. The difference between x-rays and radio waves is the amount of energy each contains. The shorter the wave length, the more energetic it is.
Climate Change Sanity 