Category Archives: Climate Models

Secretary Kerry Says Climate Agreement Is Unenforceable


Secretary of State John Kerry hailed the Paris climate agreement as “a victory for all of the planet and for future generationsaccording to the Washington Examiner posting “Kerry says Paris agreement crafted to avoid Congress”.

How did he avoid the US Congress?  

Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday the climate agreement reached this week in Paris did not contain any enforcement provisions because Congress would not have approved them.

“It doesn’t have mandatory targets for reduction and it doesn’t have an enforcement, compliance mechanism,” Kerry said during an interview on “Fox News Sunday.”

“Binding legal requirements would have made the Paris agreement a treaty, requiring approval from two-thirds of the Senate. Because no climate change measure could close to the high bar in the chamber, the Paris deal was written to avoid it.”

Nice work Secretary Kerry. An unenforceable climate agreement is going to save the planet.  Actually being unenforceable is probably a victory for the planet, but not in the same sense that Kerry is claiming.   Unenforceable provides hope for the poor.  Fossil fuel electrical power plants may now be in their future.

The Secretary has crafted another unenforceable agreement regarding Iran’s nuclear program.   In just one year, the Secretary has crafted two unenforceable victories for the planet. Certainly this is some kind of distinction.

cbdakota

The Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect


The Urban Heat Island Effect (UHI) is an important factor in the calculation of global temperature. Big cities are the source of the UHI effect. Mostly the warmers say that they take care of it by adjustments. This is like being between the rock and the hard place because adjustments by the global temperature keepers nearly always increase the present temperature and decrease older temperatures. I don’t know how much too trust.   For an example of the UHI, lets look at the temperature records from Central Park in New York City, New York and temperature records from West Point, New York.

NewYork_westpointtempsUSA

 

 

Until about 1885 the two temperature records were closely related. After 1885 they began to separate and now New York’s temperatures measures about 2C higher than those measured at West Point. Between 1870 and 1880, the New York City population passed 1 million people. The US Census Bureau estimates the City’s 2014 population at 8.5 million.  The country-side temperatures may rise but at a much lesser amount that the temperature in the big cities

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Fireworks At Senate Subcommittee Testimony On Global Warming


Some fireworks at yesterdays hearing  of the Senate’s subcommittee on Commerce Science and Transportation.  Senator Ted Cruz is the Chairman of the subcommittee.  He invited 4 guests to demonstrate that the current theory of catastrophic man-made global (CMGW) warming is far from proven.   Cruz’s guest were Judith Curry, John Christy, William Happer and Mark Steyn.

The fireworks came about after Senator Markey made is own presentation.  Clearly Markey does not have much in the way of the science but he is able to parrot what the warmers tell him.  The Youtube that follows is very interesting:

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A Difference Of Opinions on Entering A Mauder Minimum


Forbes.com posting “Sun Flatlining Into Grand Minimum, Says Solar Physicist on JANUARY 20, 2014. Yes, the posting is nearly two years old. But the snowdriftsimagesdiscordance about the Sun’s influence in the Earth’s climate could not be more evident in the posting.

From the posting:

“My opinion is that we are heading into a Maunder Minimum,” said Mark Giampapa, a solar physicist at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson, Arizona. “I’m seeing a continuation in the decline of the sunspots’ mean magnetic field strengths and a weakening of the polar magnetic fields and subsurface flows.”

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Dr Judith Curry Is No Longer A Member Of the Warmer Tribe.


Dr Judith Curry believes that CO2 is warming the Earth. But she thinks that the forecasts of temperature rise by the IPCC and other warmers are vastly curryUnknownoverstated. Thus she is labeled a lukewarmer. Because most skeptics are in some sense lukewarmers, she is readily accepted by the Skeptics. But warmers do not tolerate those who don’t strictly follow their religious like beliefs that allow no deviation from their catastrophic views.   She says she has been tossed out of the warmer tribe of which she was once a welcome member.

Her credentials are solid gold. Wikipedia cites her publications as follows:

Curry is the co-author of Thermodynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans (1999), and co-editor of Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences (2002). Curry has published over 130 scientific peer reviewed papers. Among her awards is the Henry G. Houghton Research Award from the American Meteorological Society in 1992.

She (Curry) wrote: “I have a total of 12,000 citations of my publications (since my first publication in 1983).

The new.spectator.com.uk posted “I was tossed out of the tribe’: climate scientist Judith Curry interviewed”. This is how it happened:

“Curry’s independence has cost her dear. She began to be reviled after the 2009 ‘Climategate’ scandal, when leaked emails revealed that some scientists were fighting to suppress sceptical views. ‘I started saying that scientists should be more accountable, and I began to engage with sceptic bloggers. I thought that would calm the waters. Instead I was tossed out of the tribe. There’s no way I would have done this if I hadn’t been a tenured professor, fairly near the end of my career. If I were seeking a new job in the US academy, I’d be pretty much unemployable. I can still publish in the peer-reviewed journals. But there’s no way I could get a government research grant to do the research I want to do. Since then, I’ve stopped judging my career by these metrics. I’m doing what I do to stand up for science and to do the right thing.’”

Curry says that the COP 21 will be driven by the warmer’s belief that global temperature rise is a direct function of the atmospheric CO2 concentration.   She says there is no such relationship:

“This debate will be conducted on the basis that there is a known, mechanistic relationship between the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and how world average temperatures will rise. Any such projection is meaningless, unless it accounts for natural variability and gives a value for ‘climate sensitivity’ —i.e., how much hotter the world will get if the level of CO2 doubles. Until 2007, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gave a ‘best estimate’ of 3°C. But in its latest, 2013 report, the IPCC abandoned this, because the uncertainties are so great. Its ‘likely’ range is now vast — 1.5°C to 4.5°C.

Curry says that reaching 2°C is likely much farther away than the warmers think because the recent research shows a climate sensitivity of around 2°C rise per doubling of the CO2 in the atmosphere versus the 3°C rise.  See Recent “Research Papers Show That IPCC Climate Sensitivity Is Too High”

 Curry also believes the warmers need to look at natural sources that cause the climate to change. She says:

“Meanwhile, the obsessive focus on CO2 as the driver of climate change means other research on natural climate variability is being neglected. For example, solar experts believe we could be heading towards a ‘grand solar minimum’ — a reduction in solar output (and, ergo, a period of global cooling) similar to that which once saw ice fairs on the Thames. ‘The work to establish the solar-climate connection is lagging.’”

Curry closes her interview by the David Rose of the New Spectator UK with this:

She remains optimistic that science will recover its equilibrium, and that the quasi-McCarthyite tide will recede: ‘I think that by 2030, temperatures will not have increased all that much. Maybe then there will be the funding to do the kind of research on natural variability that we need, to get the climate community motivated to look at things like the solar-climate connection.’ She even hopes that rational argument will find a place in the UN: ‘Maybe, too, there will be a closer interaction between the scientists, the economists and policymakers. Wouldn’t that be great?’

cbdakota

(I previously post the Spectator interview on my Facebook sans my comments.)

 

 

COP21: Dreams From My (Father?) Climate Computer Models


Data dominates the skeptic’s view of the state of the globe’s temperature and where that temperature may be heading. The climate computer models dominate the warmers view. Temperature is at the heart of the global warming issue in that just about every other indicator is a function of the temperature. For example, sea level change is the product of melting ice at the South Pole and Greenland along with the lesser masses of ice in the high elevations of the mountain ranges. Rainfall, and its shadow drought are said to be forced by changes in the temperature. Higher ocean temperatures, we are assured, breed the hurricanes and typhoons. So this posting will focus on global temperatures.

First it would be well to try to understand the past. Ice core analyses from the Antarctica were used to reconstruct global temperatures for the last 420,000 years. Figure 2 below, from climate4you.com illustrates the temperature for that period of time:

VostokTemp0-420000 BP-2

Fig.2. Reconstructed global temperature over the past 420,000 years based on the Vostok ice core from the Antarctica (Petit et al. 2001). The record spans over four glacial periods and five interglacials, including the present. The horizontal line indicates the modern temperature.

From climate4you.com comes the following discussion: “The present interglacial period (the Holocene) is seen to the right (red square). The preceding four interglacials are seen at about 125,000, 280,000, 325,000 and 415,000 years before now, with the longer glacial periods in between. All four previous interglacials are seen to be warmer (1-3°C) than the present. The typical length of a glacial period is about 100,000 years, while an interglacial period typical lasts for about 10-15,000 years. The present interglacial period has now lasted about 11,600 years.

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COP 21: All Pain, No Gain


For the upcoming Paris COP 21, every nation was asked to make known an Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) of their reduction of CO2 emissions by the year 2030. The Paris meeting is intended to begin a process that will keep the global temperature rise less than 2C. It is also intended to provide 3rd world nations reparations for the “damage” done by the industrialized nations.

As of November 5, most of the nations having a significant level of CO2 emissions had submitted their INDC. The major sources of the CO2 emissions are from the US, China and the EU. Using  the forecast CO2 reduction commitments, computer runs find that the calculated global temperature reduction by 2100 as result of their INDCs will  only be 0.132C. Adding the temperature reduction from the other nations’ INDCs, the new total global temperature reduction change is 0.168C. These temperature reductions are probably too small to even be measured. And they are certainly nearly that of measurement error.

This minuscule effect on the global temperature will be accompanied by skyrocketing prices for energy, disruption of many nations economies and more hardships for the really poor peoples of this world. No gain but lots of Pain

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COP 21 Pope Francis’ Encyclical Is Of Little Help For The Poor


The UN Conference of Parties annual Climate Action Meeting Scheduled to begin on 30 November in Paris has the objective of preventing global temperature from rising as a direct result of carbon dioxide ((CO2) emissions. One would think the science supporting the contention that CO2 would be center stage, but it wont. Instead, the real drivers of this movement are politics and culture.

Perhaps Pope Francis’ recent Encyclical “Laudado Si” would be a good way to begin. While the Encyclical covered a range of topics, the part that dealt with the supposed threat of global warming drew the most attention. Despite the Pope having repeatedly said that discussion with all parties is necessary to find the proper solutions not a single skeptical scientist was allowed to participate. His advisors, with or without the Pope’s knowledge, made a conscious decision to exclude skeptical scientists. The Pope’s advisors however, did included in the discussion,  atheists, anti-capitalists, population limiting advocates, scientists with works so poor the even their fellow warmers have reputiated them and others that believe skeptics should be imprisoned.

The “books were cooked” so to speak. The conclusions, foregone.

UNpollutionbyramirez

 

 

 

 

Cartoon by Ramirez Investors.com

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Social Cost Of Carbon–The Administration’s New Way To Justify Regulations


The Obama administration has instituted new criteria for supporting their climate change regulations. It is called the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC).   The eventual cost of an increase in atmospheric CO2 is calculated for each regulation. corncropUnknownThe calculation is based upon their model’s forecasts of temperature, sea level, storms, droughts, etc. All the bad things they believe will happen if the rise of atmospheric CO2 is not stopped. You can be certain that each regulation could prevent millions, perhaps billions, of dollars damage according to their SCC calculation.

The SCC calculations use several discount rates that most rational economist would say were not germane. SSC presumes that the next generations will not have more knowledge and money to adapt to what ever actually happens. For example at the turn of the last century, do you think the forecasters would have come up with airplanes, nuclear energy, penicillin, satellites, for several example of things that have made enormous changes? And the many people that would be lifted out of poverty and provided a much-improved life?

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92% Of US Surface Temperatures Are Estimated.


Temperature readings from the various temperature-monitoring stations in the USA are sent to the data compilers at the U.S. Historical Climatological Network (USHCN). This data can be called the”raw “data. It has yet to be process through the 6 steps used to “adjust” the raw data. The adjustment process is:

  1. Survey for obvious outliers and the radically incorrect. Delete or correct as necessary.
  2. Time of observation adjustment.
  3. New measuring device adjustment .
  4. Homogenization adjustment to account for failure to record all the data from given monitoring stations and random stations movement.
  5. Lack of monitoring stations in remote areas, for example, where it is necessary to fill in calculated estimates of what the reading would be if there were devices.
  6. Adjustment for the “heat island” effect.

I have tried to summarize the process in the above. For a more detailed description of the process used by USHCN click here. The adjusted raw data is considered the US temperature.

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