I have been otherwise occupied for the past several weeks, but this is a quick note to keep you posted regarding Global Temperature. The temperature anomaly declined 0.09C in June making the global anomaly -0.01C.
Dr Roy Spencer comments on June’s anomalies as follows:
Despite the near-normal global average temperatures, the USA Lower 48 temperature anomaly of +1.44 deg. C was the warmest in the 43 year satellite record, ahead of +1.15 deg. C in 1988. In contrast, the Antarctic region (poleward of 60 S latitude) experienced its 2nd coldest June (-1.25 deg. C below the 30-year baseline), behind -1.34 deg. C in June, 2017.
The ENSO meter indicates that the la Nina has terminated.
I have been otherwise occupied for the past several weeks, but this is a quick note to keep you posted regarding Global Temperature. The temperature anomaly declined 0.09C in June making the global anomaly -0.01C.
Dr Roy Spencer comments on June’s anomalies as follows:
Despite the near-normal global average temperatures, the USA Lower 48 temperature anomaly of +1.44 deg. C was the warmest in the 43 year satellite record, ahead of +1.15 deg. C in 1988. In contrast, the Antarctic region (poleward of 60 S latitude) experienced its 2nd coldest June (-1.25 deg. C below the 30-year baseline), behind -1.34 deg. C in June, 2017.
The ENSO meter indicates that the la Nina has terminated.
I have been otherwise occupied for the past several weeks, but this is a quick note to keep you posted regarding Global Temperature. The temperature anomaly declined 0.09C in June making the global anomaly -0.01C.
Dr Roy Spencer comments on June’s anomalies as follows:
Despite the near-normal global average temperatures, the USA Lower 48 temperature anomaly of +1.44 deg. C was the warmest in the 43 year satellite record, ahead of +1.15 deg. C in 1988. In contrast, the Antarctic region (poleward of 60 S latitude) experienced its 2nd coldest June (-1.25 deg. C below the 30-year baseline), behind -1.34 deg. C in June, 2017.
The ENSO meter indicates that the la Nina has terminated.
“Doing nothing also carries huge economic risks. Climate scientists warn of increased frequency of extreme weather conditions, which can disrupt food supplies and damage buildings and infrastructure, all with a fallout on the broader economy.
This comes from some set of unnamed “Climate scientists” who somehow are ordained with having foresight 50 years into the future. These same Climate Scientists have been forecasting doom for 40 years. Their forecasts have not come true. What makes you think they will this time after you have been fooled year after year? The actual data do not support this alarm.
“The largest spending item in the latest GOP offer is $506 billion for roads, bridges and major infrastructure projects, up $91 billion from their offer last month. Other spending increases include $72 billion for water systems, $22 billion for ports and waterways, and $65 billion for broadband.
The GOP counteroffer totals $928 billion over eight years, following the president’s latest offer to Republicans of $1.7 trillion, which was $600 billion less than his original proposal.”
And what does the $1.7 trillion bill contain that the Republican bill does not, again according to the CNBC posting:
“Biden’s infrastructure proposal includes energy initiatives to combat climate change, including the creation of an “Energy Efficiency and Clean Electricity Standard,” a mandate that would require some U.S. electricity to come from zero-carbon sources such as wind and solar power.
Biden’s plan aims to retrofit millions of homes to boost energy efficiency, with efforts focused on low-income and minority communities. It would also fund research and development projects on technologies such as carbon capture and storage, hydrogen and offshore wind.”
That is the Green New Deal, not infrastructure. Why is it that the Democrats pretend this money will be spent on infrastructure when it will be for the Green New Deal? Because they know that the Green New Deal is not popular.
“How much of your own money would you be willing to personally spend each month to reduce the impact of climate change?”
“The vast majority of voters were only willing to make very minimal financial sacrifices.
About 35 percent said they wouldn’t be willing to spend anything, with another 15 percent saying they’d only sacrifice $1-$10. Another 6 percent were willing to give up $11-$20, while 5 percent said they’d sacrifice $21-$30. In all, a whopping 75 percent of respondents were not willing to pay more than $50 a month.”
There is a lot of virtue signaling and lack of information in the public in general about the climate change, but one thing they do know is its going to cost too much and they do not want to pay for it.
The Democrats know this, so they want to disguise this and pretend it is infrastructure which is very popular.
Can you just imagine how much climate change spending was in Biden’s original $2.3 trillion bill?
This priceless. An oil and gas company from Texas put in an order for 400 North Face Jackets. Asking North Face, a Colorado company, to put the Texas company’s logo on the jackets. North Face refused because oil and gas companies do not meet their brand standards. Another ignorant “woke” US corporation virtue signaling .
The oil and gas companies fired back at North Face. The Colorado Oil and Gas Association did something appropriate. This video will provide the details.
North Face should be very embarrassed. An Extraordinary Customer Award. Do you think they have learned anything? Probably not.
I suppose they could start making all their line out of linen, cotton, and may be paper. They certainly do not want to continue to use oil and gas derived products in view of those products not meeting their brand standards. But wait, don’t you have to use fossil fuel burning equipment to harvest and fabricate linen, cotton, paper, etc.?
There is no hope for them but to discontinue the business.
The UAH satellite temperatures for May warmed by 0.13C, making the anomaly +0.08C. I can hear the voice of a friend of mine saying “the change is way beyond the limits of meaningful measurement.” Ok, but the cumulative measurements have meaning in that they do mimic warming or cooling trends. So, I will continue to report these anomalies.
The comparison of Solar Cycle (SC)25 to its predecessor SC 24 currently indicates that there is little difference in activity at the same point in time after they began. Looking at the chart below, the two bottom lines, are SC 24 and 25. Several months ago, SC 25 was more active than SC 24 and that lead to the thought it would be much more active than SC24. The expert forecasts mostly said that they would be much the same. At this point, the forecasts of similarity appear to be accurate
The following chart shows the history of the recorded SCs. Sunspot numbers have only been collected for recent centuries. When a series of SCs having low numbers of sunspots occur, historically, the result is global cooling. When a series of SCs occur with high numbers of sunspots, the result seems to be warming.
Beginning in the early part of the last century, SCs were highly active, peaking with SC19. SC19 has the record for most sunspots. The SCs that followed were highly active until SC 24. This period has been called a solar maximum.
The timing of the solar maximum and the increase in atmospheric CO2 are rivals for the reason that global temperatures have risen beginning in the latter part of the last century. Perhaps they both have been complicit.
I believe that the Sun is the major factor determining global climate. The trajectory of the SC 24 and probably SC 25 would suggest a global cooling is in the offing. This should be a defining period.
My first reaction to the title question was NO. A new poll of the major issues that American citizens are concerned about, found global warming as the next to last of the list’s 12 issues. A previous poll shows almost no interest in any program to “fix” global warming that would cost the individual more than $5 per month. Considering the trillions of dollars that are estimated to do the “fix”, that hardly seems enough to get any program even started.
“At a virtual meeting earlier in June (2020) hosted by the World Economic Forum, some of the planet’s most powerful business leaders, government officials and activists announced a proposal to “reset” the global economy. Instead of traditional capitalism, the high-profile group said the world should adopt more socialistic policies, such as wealth taxes, additional regulations, and massive Green New Deal-like government programs.
“Every country, from the United States to China, must participate, and every industry, from oil and gas to tech, must be transformed,” wrote Klaus Schwab, the founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum, in an article published on WEF’s website. “In short, we need a ‘Great Reset’ of capitalism.”
“Schwab also said that “all aspects of our societies and economies” must be “revamped,” “from education to social contracts and working conditions.”
Joining Schwab at the WEF event was Prince Charles, one of the primary proponents of the Great Reset; Gina Gopinath, the chief economist at theInternational Monetary Fund; António Guterres, the secretary-general of the United Nations; and CEOs and presidents of major international corporations, such as Microsoft and BP.
Activists from groups such as Greenpeace International and a variety of academics also attended the event or have expressed their support for the Great Reset.
That and much more can be found on two additional postings on the idea that global warming was being used to bring down capitalism. As a follow up on those postings, I am expanding on that theme.
George Soros is an agenda setter and an advisor for the Great Reset
As an example of who are the leaders of the Great Reset, I offer George Soros.
He is quoted as saying in an interview by the NEWSWEEK magazine:
“NEWSWEEK: You say that the main obstacle to a stable and just world is the United States. That’s a pretty strong statement.
George Soros: Yes, but it happens to coincide with the prevailing opinion in the world. And I think that’s rather shocking for Americans to hear. The United States sets the agenda for the world. And the rest of the world has to respond to that agenda. By declaring a “war on terror” after September the 11th, we set the wrong agenda for the world.”
The Great Reset is neocommunism—an analysis
At the end of WWII, the people of Hungary were forced to live under USSR communism. Following the collapse of the USSR, Hungary became a democratic parliamentary republic in October 1989. The time under communism has embedded in the Hungarian’s memories how communism operates. The Visegrad Post, posted an article by the Hungarian daily outlet Magyar Nemzet titled “Davos-era neocommunism”: on March 1 2021. I am selecting some section of the Magyar Nemzet article. I recommend that your read the completed article.
“The Great Reset would usher in a new world order in the post-Covid era, which would mean political, ideological, and economic cohesion as well as a nationless world. Based on what Schwab and the lot have said, we can see that their big plans would introduce Marx and Engels’ great dream of global communism under some sort of a transnational, international ruling system. (This can’t exactly be called a proletarian dictatorship either, as the members of the world elite – from the Rothschild family to say, Bill Gates – can hardly be labelled proletarians; by replacing the word “proletarian” with elite and keeping “dictatorship” we start to get closer to the truth.)”
“First of all, let’s confirm the following: it is no longer a question that the global elite’s primary goal is to dismantle nations and nation-states and create a comprehensive, large-scale global government, which –according to their plans – will enable the handling and resolving of issues like social inequalities, climate change, unsustainable growth, migration and so on.”
“Therefore, the solution they see is that companies and governments “effectively communicate with each other”. I believe this means nothing more than that the global market leaders will gradually take over these “difficult tasks” from national governments”.
“If we dig just a little deeper, I’m immediately struck by the fact that these big shots want to replace democracy with complex governance, prioritize technocracy over elections and MPs, and emphasize “expertise” that the general public doesn’t understand instead of transparency”
“Schwab wrote, already in 2016, in his opus, Shaping the Fourth Industrial Revolution, that the techniques used by new tech giants allow governments to penetrate the private sphere of our minds, read our thoughts, and influence our behavior – and thus becoming part of our physical world as well. Schwab predicts that today’s external devices like laptops and virtual reality headsets, will eventually “most likely be able to be implanted in our bodies and minds”. And Schwab concludes, “By the time the Fourth Industrial Revolution is leading, it is the unification of our physical, digital, and biological identities.
As the article says it will be a corporation/government running thing, I don’t expect you would have much say on how you live if the Great Reset is adopted globally.
Covid 19 is minor and it is not even remotely an equal to WWI or WWII
The Great Reset is trying to put COVID 19 as an equal with WWI in order to make it seem urgent. Gross exaggeration that it is. WWII resulted in 60 to 85 million deaths when world population was about2.5 billion. COVID deaths might be several million with a world population of 7.8billion. Even the highly exaggerated forecast of deaths due to future global warming do not even come close to WW II.
After WWII, the nations using the current form of capitalism made an enormous recovery. Why would you think that it needs to be changed?
Other attempts at global governance have been failures.
The League of Nations was going to make World War I the last war. It failed in 19 years. It ended when the NAZI invaded Poland. There was really nothing distinguished that League of Nations did in the intervening years.
The United Nations was founded right after WWII was over. It was planned to be able to prevent future wars, and other catastrophes. Wiki says that 64 wars having 25,000 or more deaths have happened since WWII. Politically caused famines occur regularly, too. No success at all.
Is there co-operation in the UN.? Well, yes occasionally. Think of how many nations share a common objective, swearing to destroy Israel. Iran, daily chants “Death to America,” and I am certain that there are followers.
When socialist are challenged that no socialist nation has ever improved their citizens lot, and most of those nations failed to survive, they just say that is because the right people had not run any of those nations. Their presumption is that only they are so brilliant and compassionate that it will not happen on their watch. Someone said that insanity is continuing to try something that always fails over and over again and expecting a change.
It is feeble to try to say that the COVID 19 is epic when you compare it to WWI and WW II.
Two thirds of Americans rate the UN as a poor performer.
So, what are the American’s view about the UN’s job approval? Gallup may have newer polls, but I have not found any. The peoples view of the UN has probably little changed. UN approval has only been above 50% several times in the 60 years — 1957 until 2017.
We do not want a neo-UN to govern us. Remember, some of the most dangerous words are, “I’m from the government and I am here to help you.”
Look at what the promised land of the Great Reset is like.
I am not sure how the leaders are going to get people to believe what this woman , a Member of the Denmark Parliament, has to say:
She writes an essay placing herself in the year 2030. The essay describes how life will be thanks to the Great Reset. She says: “We have access to transportation, accommodation, food and all the things we need in our daily lives. One by one all these things became free, so it ended up not making sense for us to own much”. She says robots and AI have taken over most of the work.
Have you read the H G Wells novel “The Time Machine”? An inventor makes a time machine and travels into the future. He encounters the Eloi, a society of small, elegant, childlike adults. They live in small communities within large and futuristic yet slowly deteriorating buildings,. . Their food is provided. His efforts to communicate with them are hampered by their lack of curiosity or discipline, Maybe in 2030 we will be on our way to becoming Elois.
If you have read the book or seen one of the several movies based upon the book, you know about the Morlocks and their interaction with the Eloi. Beware of a new breed of Morlocks—they may be wearing suits.
“But the Great Reset is not OK. It really doesn’t matter whether you want to cast its masterplan — which remember, ultimately includes the abolition of private property — as communist or fascist or technocratic. The much more important point is that it represents a totalitarian takeover by a small, powerful, oppressive, unelected elite which will leave the rest of us impoverished, immiserated, and deprived of our liberty.”
Again, I quote Dr. Roy Spencer’s statement that there really is not a crisis that needs the great reset:
“Seldom is the public ever informed of these glaring discrepancies between basic science and what politicians and pop-scientists tell us. Why does it matter? It matters because there is no Climate Crisis. There is no Climate Emergency. Yes, irregular warming is occurring. Yes, it is at least partly due to human greenhouse gas emissions. But seldom are the benefits of a somewhat warmer climate system mentioned, or the benefits of more CO2 in the atmosphere (which is required for life on Earth to exist). But if we waste trillions of dollars (that’s just here in the U.S. — meanwhile, China will always do what is in the best interests of China) then that is trillions of dollars not available for the real necessities of life. Prosperity will suffer, and for no good reason.“
This is the sixth posting of a series listing things that the alarmists and the mainstream media do not want made public. At the top of this posting is a link to the preceding postings.
The Paris Agreement (PA) has been a flop, so far. The PA’s target is lowering CO2 emissions. Since the PA was signed in 2015 by some 180+ nations, the CO2 emissions have risen.
The chart below, from Rhodium, shows the percentage of the total global emissions of the so-called greenhouse gases made by the top 8 emitters in 2019. China is far and away the leading emitter and will be increasing the difference in the future. CO2 from fossil fuels is nominally 80+ % of the total emissions. The rest of the total is from cement manufacturing, methane, and fluorocarbons, etc. In 2020, the emissions dropped due to COVID but are forecast to be back up in 2021.
The International Energy Agency forecasts that 2021 will exceed the emissions in 2019. Their forecast is 33GtCO2 for the year 2021.
China and India as well as many nations in Africa and Asia are installing coal-based power plants at a breakneck speed. Because coal combustion produces more CO2 per Megawatt hour, than any other commonly used fossil fuel, it is the primary target of the alarmists. Bloomberg Green data reports on the primary users of coal int 2019:
COAL USER
% OF TOTAL COAL USED
CHINA
51.7
INDIA
11.8
US
7.2
REST OF THE WORLD
29.3
The US has been reducing the use of coal by using natural gas as a replacement.
The premise of the PA is to essentially eliminate all global manmade CO2 emissions to prevent the global temperature to have risen to 2C since 1900. Or else, awful things are going to happen the alarmists tell us.
If the US were able to totally reduce their emissions, would that prevent the global temperature to rise to 2C?
“Not when almost 90 percent of all of the planet’s global emissions come from outside of US borders. We could go to zero tomorrow and the problem isn’t solved,” Kerry conceded.
All the signers of the PA must submit their Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), a plan to reduce CO2 emission. Then every 5 years they are to make a new set of NDCs more robust than the preceding submittal. There are no penalties for not meeting your NDC nor are there any for not making a sufficient effort. The burden for accomplishing this objective is laid on these 42 nations that signed the PA. This group consists of the 27nations within the EU, Australia, Canada, Chile, Iceland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey, the US, and the UK. These nation are accused of creating the problem because they have used fossil fuels to discontinue the use of horses, whale oil, backbreaking labor, inadequate living conditions, child labor, while at the same time providing affordable and available electricity— just to mention a few reasons.
The first submission of NDCs were underwhelming. And since then, the story is:
President Xi and the then President Obama met. Obama was going to bring China into the PA. The deal was that China could continue increasing their emission until 2030 without disapproval of the PA organization. From China’s perspective it was a perfect opportunity to build up their manufacturing/economy while the other nations were destroying theirs.
China has disappointed in every way, especially those who thought China was really into environmental stuff. China recently announced that wind and solar are too unreliable to depend upon. An added that they were reducing support to renewables. That was followed by the fact that they were going to build more coal plants. They offered to buy the UKs steel business. Does that sound like someone who worries about the global warming theory? Their new five-year plan that was expected to be based upon using less coal, turned out to be based on more coal.
“At a time when China is so obviously saying one thing and doing another, and clearly not fulfilling its share of the world’s commitments to reducing CO2 emissions — as the world’s second-largest economy– sends all the wrong signals. What China and others see is that no matter what it does — even if it deceives the world and continues its predatory behavior — the US is willing to reduce its own competitiveness, leaving China a thick red carpet to become the world’s dominant superpower, the very role to which it aspires. “
This same Gatestone posting also reminds that the Chinese government are not people of their word:
“It is extremely unlikely that China will deliver on its climate commitments and there are enough precedents to show that the CCP’s pledges cannot be trusted. In 1984, China pledged that Hong Kong’s autonomy, including its rights and freedoms, would remain unchanged for 50 years under the principle of “one country, two systems” after the 1997 return to Chinese sovereignty. By June 2020, however, when China introduced its iron-fisted national security law in Hong Kong, China had reneged on its pledge, and the CCP continues to crush Hong Kong.
China also broke its 2015 commitment not to militarize artificial islands that Beijing has been building in the Spratly Islands chain in the South China Sea and it has never honored at least nine of the commitments it made when it joined the World Trade Organization, to name just a few instances.
The list of broken pledges does not even include the lies that China told the world about the supposed non-transmissibility of the Coronavirus, which originated in Wuhan and has so far taken more than three million lives and ravaged countless economies.”
And another pact, the Montreal Protocol on Ozone is another example of a broken pledge. Jonathan Turley’s post titled China found in massive violation of the Montreal Protocol:
“A study in Nature shows a massive violation by China in the release of ozone-depleting gases like chlorofluorocarbons. China agreed to the Montreal Protocol to stop such CFC pollution. However, it now appears that the Chinese regime is violating the Protocol. A concentration of increased CFC pollution was traced to the northeastern provinces of Shandong and Hebei.”
“We find no evidence for a significant increase in CFC-11 emissions from any other eastern Asian countries or other regions of the world where there are available data for the detection of regional emissions. “
“Several considerations suggest that the increase in CFC-11 emissions from Eastern mainland China is likely to be the result of new production and use, which is inconsistent with the Montreal Protocol agreement to phase out global chlorofluorocarbon production by 2010.”
“If China cannot comply with the Montreal Protocol to control these most dangerous pollutants (particularly with the availability of alternatives for industry) the nation undermines its already low credibility on environmental compliance.”
Look at what is already under way. This chart by IEA shows the Energy Related CO2 Emissions. The table that follows illustrates that the Advanced Economies have a diminishing role in controlling CO2 emissions.
Yellow is “Rest of the World” and rust is “Advanced Economies”.
IEA Chart
2010 2019
GtCO2
% of Total
GtCO2
% of Total
Advanced Economies
12.6
54.5
11.3
34
Rest of the World
10.5
45.5
22.0
66.0
Total
23.1
100
33.3
100
Energy Related C02 Emissions
IEA Data
In ten years, the advanced Economies reduced their energy related emissions by 1.3 GtCO2. The Rest of the World increased their emissions by 11.5 GtCO2. Neither China, nor India nor Brazil nor Russia nor the other Asian and African nations are going to stop installation of fossil fuel-based energy. Their reasons for this are many but they want their people to have electricity and other products of fossil fuels, too.
So, John Kerry nailed it, ““Not when almost 90 percent of all of the planet’s global emissions come from outside of US borders. We could go to zero tomorrow and the problem isn’t solved,”
If the West attempts to decarbonize, it will not succeed. I think that the further they get in this futile and misdirected attempt will be disastrous —not to the climate but to the viability of the West. The public will eventually wake up to the facts. Price rises for everything and sharp rises for electricity and gasoline, the new name for renewable will be unreliables, jobs will disappear as manufacturing leaves our shores for lower cost energy, and an unease about the US loss of stature and ability to protect its citizens. These things are likely to create public awareness that the government programs have had disappointing results.
If the West attempts to decarbonize, it will not succeed. I think that the further they get in this futile and misdirected attempt will be disastrous —not to the climate but to the viability of the West.
There is another party that wants to see the West fail. That is a movement titled the Great Reset. This blog will discuss the Great Reset in the next posting.
From a recent Dr. Roy Spencer blog: Seldom is the public ever informed of these glaring discrepancies between basic science and what politicians and pop-scientists tell us. Why does it matter? It matters because there is no Climate Crisis. There is no Climate Emergency. Yes, irregular warming is occurring. Yes, it is at least partly due to human greenhouse gas emissions. But seldom are the benefits of a somewhat warmer climate system mentioned, or the benefits of more CO2 in the atmosphere (which is required for life on Earth to exist). But if we waste trillions of dollars (that’s just here in the U.S. — meanwhile, China will always do what is in the best interests of China) then that is trillions of dollars not available for the real necessities of life. Prosperity will suffer, and for no good reason.“
This is the fifth posting of a series listing things that the alarmists and the mainstream media do not want made public. At the top of this posting is a link to the preceding postings.
To hear the global warming alarmists, carbon dioxide (CO2) is poison. It is on a mission to destroy the Earth. It is a pollutant that must be stopped. There are some people convinced that if fossil fuels burning was completely stopped, there would be no more CO2 anywhere. The alarmists do not want you to know how beneficial CO2 is.
“Carbon is the backbone of life on Earth. We are made of carbon, we eat carbon, and our civilizations—our economies, our homes, our means of transport—are built on carbon”. That is a quote from NASA’s posting, the Carbon Cycle.
POISON
Let us begin by disposing of the myth that CO2 is a poison. Do you know that every time you exhale, your breath contains about 40,000 parts per million (ppm) CO2. That contrasts with air you breathe that has a concentration of about 415ppm.
MAN-MADE CO2 IS A SMALL FRACTION OF THE CARBON CYCLE
The NASA chart below tells the story of the CO2 from manmade sources, and natural source. The natural sources are in white and the man-made sources are in red. The numbers are gigatons of carbon presumably because the form that carbon assumes in this chart might not always be in the form of carbon dioxide **.
According to this chart, five of the nine manmade gigatonnes of carbon are removed from the atmosphere. The “greening” of the Earth’s surface is attributable to an increase in atmospheric CO2, that would explain the “Net terrestrial uptake shown on the chart.
\
Into Atmosphere
Man Made
Fossil Fuels, Concrete etc.
9-5 GtC/Y
in
Plants
Respiration
60
in
Soil
Respir & Decomp
60
in
Ocean
Respir & Decomp
90
Out of Atmosphere
Plants
Photosynthesis &Biomass
120 + 3
out
Ocean
Photosynthesis
90+ 2
Atmosphere Net
In
214 G tC/Y
Atmosphere Net
Out
210 GtC/Y
GtC/Y is gigatonnes of carbon per year. (1 gigatonne =billion tonnes.) (1 tonne =2205 pounds)
** CO2’s molecular weight is 44 because it is made up of 12 from carbon and 32 from two oxygens. Thus, the gigatonnes of CO2 are larger than the fraction of carbon (C) numbers shown on the chart.
The most accurate number on the chart is probably the net increase in the atmosphere as it is considered well mixed. Measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentration are made frequently and in several places around the globe.
It is likely, that the fossil fuel, etc. number is the next most accurate number on this chart. Emission sources are reasonably known so a fairly good estimate can be made. The other numbers may be swags (Scientific Wild Ass Guess).
The amount of manmade CO2 relative to the amount of natural CO2 is quite small. It is about 4% of the total.
CROP PRODUCTION SETS RECORDS DUE TO INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION OF C02.
Trend in Annual Average Leaf Area 2000 to 2017
Satellite images show that plant cover has become lush all over the world. This increase in green biomass worldwide is equivalent to a new green continent twice the size of the US.
It has been long known that increasing CO2 benefits plant growth through the CO2 fertilization effect. Recognizing the benefits of this, greenhouses often increase CO2 to 1,500 ppm. Research from laboratory studies by the Center for the Study of CO2 and Global Change has documented that a 300 ppm rise in CO2 levels would increase plant biomass by 25 to 50%. This significant boost in plant productivity, along with a boost from lengthening growing seasons, means that we are better able to feed a hungry planet.
An additional significant benefit from this increasing CO2 fertilization is that the plants have smaller stomata (pores) and have lessened water needs. Less water used means that more stays in the ground and is leading to increased soil moisture across much of the planet and a “greening” of the Earth. According to NASA, up to 50% of the Earth is “greening,” in part due to higher CO2 levels. This increased soil moisture is a primary cause for the long-term decrease in forest fires and droughts worldwide.
A group of scientists from Australia, focusing on the southwestern corner of North America, Australia’s outback, the Middle East, and some parts of Africa studied satellite imagery by teasing out the influence of carbon dioxide on greening from other factors such as precipitation, air temperature, the amount of light, and land-use changes. The team’s model predicted that foliage would increase by some 5 to 10 percent given the 14 percent increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration during the study period. The satellite data agreed, showing an 11 percent increase in foliage after adjusting the data for precipitation, yielding “strong support for our hypothesis,” the team reports.
In addition to greening dry regions, the CO2 fertilization effect could switch the types of vegetation that dominate in those regions. “Trees are re-invading grass lands, and this could quite possibly be related to the CO2 effect,” Donohue said. “Long lived woody plants are deep rooted and are likely to benefit more than grasses from an increase in CO2.”
And food crops are setting new records in addition to its record forecast for global wheat production in 2021, the FAO said it’s expecting a new and higher estimate for world cereal production in 2020, now seen at 2.76 billion tonnes, a 1.9% increase from the previous year, lifted by higher-than-expected outturns reported for maize in West Africa, for rice in India, and wheat harvests in the European Union, Kazakhstan, and the Russian Federation.
“ … the global wheat out turn is seen at a record, while maize is placed at the second largest ever and barley at the highest in a decade,” the report said.
The leader in studying CO2 effects on plant growth is the CO2 Science Organization. One of their studies is as follows:
The first step in determining the monetary benefit of historical atmospheric CO2 enrichment on historic crop production begins by calculating what portion of each crop’s annual yield over the period 1961-2011 was due to each year’s increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration above the baseline value of 280 ppm that existed at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.
To summarize what they did was begin with the wheat body mass and yield that occurred in 1961 and what it would be 50 years later using the CO2 growth factor. The atmospheric CO2 concentration went up during those 50 years by 37.4 ppm. They did account for the factors such as new improvements in the wheat seed, the amount of planting of during those years for example. This was to make sure that only the CO2 enhancement part would be used to determine the money benefits. The resultant value of 4.35% indicates the degree by which the 1961 yield was enhanced above the baseline yield value corresponding to an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 280 ppm. They also used constant dollars for the study.
Table 3. The total monetary benefit of Earth’s rising atmospheric CO2 concentration on each of the forty-five crops listed in Table 1 for the 50-year period 1961-2011. Values are in constant 2004-2006 U.S. dollars.
.
As can be seen from Table 3, the financial benefit of Earth’s rising atmospheric CO2 concentration on global food production is enormous. Such benefits over the period 1961-2011 have amounted to at least $1 billion for each of the 45 crops examined; and for nine of the crops the monetary increase due to CO2 over this period is well over $100 billion. The largest of these benefits is noted for rice, wheat, and grapes, which saw increases of $579 billion, $274 billion and $270 billion, respective.
Yes, the monetary benefit of all the crops, is $3,170,050,955,544. $3+trillion.
This report also calculates what the benefit would be by 2050. That sums up to $9.765 trillion. The full report can be seen by clicking this link.
These results will be rehashed when this series discusses the Social Cost of Carbon.
The following, recent study found that the greening was playing a “beneficial role of the land carbon sinks……”
CO2-induced planetary greening leads to an enormous expansion of Earth’s carbon sink.
By 2100 this greening-sink effect will offset 17 years of equivalent human CO2 emissions.
This easily supersedes the effect of the Paris Agreement’s CO2-mitigation policies.
In a break from the deflating global news of viral infections and rising death rates, a groundbreaking new study (Haverd et al., 2020) affirms the “beneficial role of the land carbon sink in modulating future excess anthropogenic CO2 consistent with the target of the Paris Agreement” via the fertilization effect of rising CO2.
There has been a 30% rise in global greening since 1900. CO2 fertilization is the “dominant driver” of these greening trends, with an additional positive contribution from climate warming.
When CO2 levels double (to 560 ppm), this CO2-fertilization-greening effect is expected to increase to 47%.
Growth in the land’s carbon sink – absorbing excess CO2 emissions – will reach 174 PgC by the end of the century.”
This is the equivalent of eliminating 17 full years of human CO2 emissions.”
There are still some government groups and alarmists that are denigrating the crops produced by the CO2 greening effect.
“In their Summary for Policymakers issued in 2014, the UN intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change acknowledges that the planet has greened, but they say that major crops that 1C above preindustrial levels will negatively impact yields, further they say that thereafter median yields will be reduced by 0 to 2% per decade”.
We are 7 years down the road, and the greening and crop records just keep rolling in despite this forecast by the IPCC.
“We analyzed the impact of elevated CO2 concentrations on the sufficiency of dietary intake of iron, zinc and protein for the populations of 151 countries using a model of per-capita food availability stratified by age and sex, assuming constant diets and excluding other climate impacts on food production. We estimate that elevated CO2 could cause an additional 175 million people to be zinc deficient and an additional 122 million people to be protein deficient (assuming 2050 population and CO2 projections). For iron, 1.4 billion women of childbearing age and children under 5 are in countries with greater than 20% anaemia prevalence and would lose >4% of dietary iron.”
Don’t you like how these experts think they can detail the numbers of people that will be harmed. They are not good at this. Never do these IPCC types ever find anything but doom for any theory but theirs.
“And Prof Judith Curry, the former chair of Earth and atmospheric sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, added: “It is inappropriate to dismiss the arguments of the so-called contrarians, since their disagreement with the consensus reflects conflicts of values and a preference for the empirical (i.e., what has been observed) versus the hypothetical (i.e., what is projected from climate models).
“These disagreements are at the heart of the public debate on climate change, and these issues should be debated, not dismissed.”
NASA has not hidden this information, but the alarmists and the mainstream media have done their best to prevent you from seeing it.
No matter how they try to eliminate CO2 it just keeps making life more livable. It is part of the energy making process in plants and animals. without which we would all die. The mass starvation predicted by the alarmists as the world’s population ballooned, did not happen because CO2 increased the food supply.
From a recent Dr. Roy Spencer blog: Seldom is the public ever informed of these glaring discrepancies between basic science and what politicians and pop-scientists tell us. Why does it matter? It matters because there is no Climate Crisis. There is no Climate Emergency. Yes, irregular warming is occurring. Yes, it is at least partly due to human greenhouse gas emissions. But seldom are the benefits of a somewhat warmer climate system mentioned, or the benefits of more CO2 in the atmosphere (which is required for life on Earth to exist). But if we waste trillions of dollars (that’s just here in the U.S. — meanwhile, China will always do what is in the best interests of China) then that is trillions of dollars not available for the real necessities of life. Prosperity will suffer, and for no good reason.“
This is number 4 in this series about secrets that the alarmists do not want you to know. The first one dealt with the fact that the alarmist computer climate models have been forecasting global warming temperatures that are far and away from the actual measured temperatures. Number two demonstrated that the actual rate of warming is not at all alarming. Number three looked at the warming bias the alarmists are putting into the computer models that are predicting global temperatures out to the year 2100. This posting discusses the other arrow in the alarmist’s quiver. The alarmists use weather to frighten people, saying that global warming is putting the survival of life on earth in the balance. This posting will prove that to be not true.
The media feeds on “scientific” papers that report that global warming (aka climate change) causes something that wasn’t something before. Mostly the reports are based on some extreme weather event (EWE). However, many seem to find something significant based upon something insignificant. If you can handle a 38 second video, it seems to illustrate the premise: Earth’s Axis Shifting Due to Climate Change (msn.com). The reporter says climate change is moving the earth’s axis but not to worry. However, she says since 1980 till now, 41 years, the length of a day has changed by a “few milliseconds”. That seems to be profound. She did not enumerate the change, probably less than 10. But I will make a guess that leaves us with simple math –41 milliseconds. Over 41 years that is one millisecond per year. As there are 1000 milliseconds in one second, it would take 1000 years to make a one second change. Oh my, lets spend trillions and trillions of dollars to prevent that from happening. OK, let’s wait as the next glacial period happens, new glaciers will correct the Earth’s axis. Then we will have to turn our clock back.
William Briggs has posted a look at the inappropriate ways the statistics are used to “confirm” that global warming is causing something. Briggs also observes the following about these scary things that global warming can do:
“Certain current weather events are said to be attributable to ‘climate change’. These events, some say, would not have appeared or would have been markedly different if the climate was in its ‘natural’ state. Curiously, events attributed to climate change are always ‘extreme’ or harmful; they are never beneficial. Nobody bothers to check whether in changed climates there will be an increase in pleasant summer afternoons, or better crop-growing weather. Researchers look only for the bad; it is therefore only the bad that will be reported. This demonstrates an irreparable confirmation bias in attribution studies.”
“Claims made in so-called climate change event attribution studies suffer from gross over-certainties and cannot be trusted. The techniques used in these studies are in their infancy and do not warrant the trust put into them. These studies assume either (a) perfect forecasting models, or (b) known, uncertainty-free causes of climate change. Neither condition holds. Because of this, attribution claims are far too certain or are wrong. They should not be used in any policy decisions.
We can, however, guess what the climate would look like without man’s influence, but we’d never be able to independently check whether our guess is true. We can also model what the climate will look like under certain changes, but in order to trust these models they first have to demonstrate forecast skill. If they can’t, or they are inaccurate, they can’t be trusted, either. Lastly, we might pick a date and say all observations before it is ‘natural’ and all after are tainted by ‘climate change’. But this is not proof man caused the differences. It is mere assumption. So-called climate-change event attribution studies rely on all these kinds of guesses and claims. As such, they are either incorrect or are far too certain, as will be demonstrated.”
Several posting are available to disprove the alarmist’s attribution studies.
Joseph D’Aleo posted “Climate Claim Rebuttals” updated 4/18/21. D’Aleo introduces the content by saying:
Below are fact checks of the 13 most common climate claims such as those made in the recently released Fourth National Climate Assessment Report. For each claim, per the scientific method, a rebuttal is provided based on the most credible relevant empirical data. The authors of these reviews are all recognized experts in the relevant fields.
His first of the “common climate claims” is Warmest Ever Month or Year:
“The globe has experienced the warmest ever month or year – these claims are totally unsupported by any credible analysis of raw global surface temperature data and its availability. Such claims are politically driven fictions. etc,”
He follows up with Heat Waves; Hurricanes; Tornados; Drought and Floods; Wildfires; Snow Falls; Sea level; Arctic, Antarctic, and Greenland Ice; Ocean Acidification; Carbon as Health Hazzard; Climate Change Endangering Food Supply; and the 97% Consensus.
This a detailed debunking of attribution studies. Goklany’s examination is unique in that it covers extreme weather events (EWE) but also looks at the human impact attributions. Goklany has summarized the attributions in tabular format near the end of the document, so you do not have to read it all, although I think you should. The summary follows:
Goklany has debunked almost all the attributions. He has also shown why CO2 from fossil fuels has make life on this planet now better than it ever has been. Not worse, but better.
The following is a lift from a recent blog by Dr. Roy Spencer. He says:
“Yes, more CO2 must produce some warming. But the amount of warming makes all the difference to global energy policies.
Seldom is the public ever informed of these glaring discrepancies between basic science and what politicians and pop-scientists tell us.
Why does it matter?
It matters because there is no Climate Crisis. There is no Climate Emergency.
Yes, irregular warming is occurring. Yes, it is at least partly due to human greenhouse gas emissions. But seldom are the benefits of a somewhat warmer climate system mentioned, or the benefits of more CO2 in the atmosphere (which is required for life on Earth to exist).
But if we waste trillions of dollars (that’s just here in the U.S. — meanwhile, China will always do what is in the best interests of China) then that is trillions of dollars not available for the real necessities of life.
Prosperity will suffer, and for no good reason.“
Now take this and have your children read it.
cbdakota
PS–sorry, used a new system and ended up with some large dead spaces between paragraphs. Will try not to use it again.
Climate Change Sanity 