Category Archives: IPCC

Global Temperature Declines Since 2005

Posted on June 14, 2013 | Leave a comment

Christopher Monckton adds a guest posting at WattsUpWithThat which takes on Dr Santer’s requirement of a period of 17 years with no significant global warming to disprove the man-made global warming theory.  Using the HadCru monthly mean surface temperature anomalies, Monckton’s first chart shows that a period of 17 years and 4 months has been realized with no statistically significant global warming. (Click on charts to get better view.)

17+yearsofnoglobalwarmingclip_image002_thumb2

Dr. Santer, as you probably know is strong supporter of the man-made global warming theory.   Skeptics anticipate that the warmers will move the goal posts  again.  Perhaps the new “proof years” will be revised to 20 or more. What ever it takes to keep their dream alive (sarc).

Monckton also provided a chart that shows that over the last 100 months the global anomaly is negative.    His chart includes the climate model predicted temperature anomaly.  Monckton says: “The variance between prediction and observation over the 100 months from January 2005 to April 2013 is thus equivalent to 3.2 Cº/century.”

globaltempdeclines-100monthsclip_image004_thumb3

He knows that this period is too short to draw any real conclusions but it is interesting that HadCru data indicates a decline in global temperatures.

cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, CO2, Global Temperatures, IPCC

Chinese Academy Of Science Adopt Heartland’s “Climate Change Reconsidered”

Posted on June 13, 2013 | Leave a comment

The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) books, Climate Change Reconsidered and Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report published by the Heartland Institute has been translated from English to Chinese by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS).  These books “..present a sweeping rebuttal of the findings of the United Nations’ controversial Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose reports were widely cited as the basis for taking action to stop or slow the advance of climate change”.

According to the Heartland Institute:

“The Chinese Academy of Sciences is the world’s largest academy of sciences, employing some 50,000 people and hosting more than 350 international conferences a year. Membership in the Academy represents the highest level of national honor for Chinese scientists. The Nature Publishing Index in May ranked the Chinese Academy of Sciences No. 12 on its list of the “Global Top 100” scientific institutions – ahead of the University of Oxford (No. 14), Yale University (No. 16), and the California Institute of Technology (No. 25).

The first 856-page volume of Climate Change Reconsidered, published in 2009, and its follow-up, the 430-page Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report,were produced by a team of scientists originally convened by Dr. S. Fred Singer under the name of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC).

chinaccrcoverclimatechangereconsidered

                  Climate Change Reconsidered is translated into Chinese

 

Jim Lakely, director of communications at the Heartland Institute told Breitbart  News:

“Translating and publishing nearly 1,300 pages of peer-reviewed scientific literature from English to Chinese is no small task, and indicative of how important CAS considers Climate Change Reconsidered to the global climate change debate. That CAS has invited the authors and editors of Climate Change Reconsidered to a conference this Saturday in Beijing to introduce the studies is yet another indicator of how important it is to get this information out to a wider audience.”

Heartland Institute President Joseph Bast added:

“A December 2012 UN meeting designed to provide climate change regulations ended in failure after China refused to sign a global climate change treaty. China was joined by the United States, as well as Canada, India, Japan, Russia, and Brazil. “Opposition to a new climate treaty is justified based upon the real science presented in Climate Change Reconsidered.”

Hopefully,  the mainstream media will take note.

cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, cap and trade, carbon tax, China, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, CO2, Environment, IPCC, Kyoto, Renewable Energy, Sea Ice, Sea Level

Climate Models Epic Fail

Posted on June 11, 2013 | 2 comments

Dr. Roy Spencer posted ‘EPIC FAIL: 73 Climate Models vs. Observations for Tropical Tropospheric Temperature” on his website.  The posting used,  “Courtesy of John Christy, a comparison between 73 CMIP5 models (archived at the KNMI Climate Explorer website) and observations for the tropical bulk tropospheric temperature (aka “MT”) since 1979.” That chart is shown below:     (Click chart for better view.)

christy1stchartCMIP5-73-models-vs-obs-20N-20S-MT

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Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, CO2, Environment, fossil fuels, Global Temperatures, IPCC, UAH Satellite Temps, United Nations

Time To Talk Temperature—May 2013 Global and Sea Surface Update

Posted on June 10, 2013 | Leave a comment

The source for this posting comes from work done by Dr Roy Spencer.  His web site can be accessed by clicking here.

Satellite Measured Atmospheric Temperature Anomalies.

First the University of Alabama –Huntsville (UAH) satellite global temperature anomaly.  The May anomaly dropped to +0.074 C from April’s anomaly of +0.103.  The global temperature anomaly in January 2013 was +0.504 which was the highest temperature since early 2010. This chart below covers the time period that the satellite system has been in existence.  By contrast with the ground based temperature measuring systems, the satellite system is essentially global in that it is measuring lower atmospheric temperature of the ¾ of the globe represented by the oceans as well as the ground.  It is the gold standard of global temperature measurements in my opinion. (Click on Charts to Enlarge.)

May13UAH_LT_1979_thru_May_2013_v5.5

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Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, Environment, Global Temperatures, IPCC, NASA/GISS

The Obama Administration Targets Congressional Skeptics

Posted on May 28, 2013 | Leave a comment

President Obama is not content with just targeting the news reporters, whistle blowers  and conservative groups such as the Tea Parties, he is now singling out Congressional skeptic by name in hopes he can get them voted out of office.

He is practicing Chicago Politics at the national level.  Chicago politics operates on the basis of denigrating your opponent.  This style of politics lacks logic, good ideas, etc.  so they result to insult and innuendo.

The President’s website lists those Senators and Representatives that do not agree with his plans to artificially reduce availability of fossil fuels and to force taxes on those people and businesses that use them.

If you click here, you will be sent to the President’s website and see a list of Congressional people he wants removed.  Each of the named individuals is credited with a quote they have made which is to give reason to why they should be removed.  I think it likely will have the opposite effect if the usual uninformed liberal voters actually read the quotes. The low information voters may never before have seen the logic expressed in these quotes.

The liberals often revel in their retelling of President Nixon’s “enemies list.”  I believe that the current president’s “enemies list”  makes Nixon’s pale by comparison.

cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, cap and trade, carbon tax, Climate Alarmism, ClimateGate, CO2, Domestic Energy, Energy Development, Environment, fossil fuels, Global Temperatures, Government Regulations, IPCC

Low Lying Pacific Islands Are Not In Danger Of Being Inundated By The Sea

Posted on May 16, 2013 | Leave a comment

The theater of doom, aka the global warming Alarmists, portray the islands of Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Federated States of Micronesia and others to soon be inundated due to rising sea level.  But a recent study by Auckland University and published in the New Scientist magazine says otherwise.  ABC News reports the following:
“The findings, published in the magazine New Scientist, were gathered by comparing changes to 27 Pacific islands over the last 20 to 60 years using historical aerial photos and satellite images.
Auckland University’s Associate Professor Paul Kench, a member of the team of scientists, says the results challenge the view that Pacific islands are sinking due to rising sea levels associated with climate change.
“Eighty per cent of the islands we’ve looked at have either remained about the same or, in fact, gotten larger,” he said.
“Some of those islands have gotten dramatically larger, by 20 or 30 per cent.
“We’ve now got evidence the physical foundations of these islands will still be there in 100 years.”
Dr Kench says the growth of the islands can keep pace with rising sea levels.”
At the end of the ABC posting Dr Kench does say:  “…. further rises in sea levels pose a significant danger to the livelihoods of people living in Tuvalu, Kirabati and the Federated States of Micronesia.”    
I have a problem squaring that with his statement: “…the growth of the islands can keep pace with rising sea level.”  It may be the often seen effort to keep himself in the good graces of the Alarmists who seem to want to use their power to punish scientists that veer too far from the approved message.  Those Alarmists are want to punish these errant folks by trying to keep them from getting any more grants or getting published in science journals.  Remember those activities were exposed in the leaked Climategate I release.
To read the rest of the ABC posting, click here.
(h/t to WattsUPWithThat)
cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, ClimateGate, Global Temperatures, IPCC, Sea Level

Sea Surface Temperatures Will Reduce Global Temperatures For Years To Come

Posted on May 14, 2013 | 2 comments

Joe Bastardi produced a chart which shows actual global temperature anomalies and atmospheric CO2 from the 1960s to the present time.  P. Gosselin extended the chart for the next 17 years (to 2030)  with predicted global temperature anomalies versus atmospheric CO2 .  Gosselin is showing what he believes to be the probable divergence—-further demonstrating that CO2 will not be controlling global temperature.   Gosselin’s premise is that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are currently and will continue to be,  the primary forcing agents for global temperatures. His adaptation of Bastardi’s chart is below: (Click on Chart to increase size.)

goselinchart1000What-the-warmists-are-afraid-ofThe baseline shows the cool (blue) and warm (red) cycling of the AMO and PDO. Gosselin explains what he did to extend  Bastardi’s(Climate4You) chart:

“I asked myself what is it going to look like in 10 or 15 years with the negative AMO and PDO (let’s leave out the solar activity slumber for now) continuing. So I took the Climate4You chart, cut and extended it out to the year 2030. We know CO2 is going to keep rising. Next I simply extended the negative phase of the AMO and PDO global temp out to 2030 so that it’s behaves similarly to the last negative phase for the 1950s, 60s and 70s.”

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Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, ClimateGate, CO2, CRU Temps, fossil fuels, Global Temperatures, IPCC, Ocean heat content

SOLAR CYCLE 24 APRIL UPDATE// RUSSIAN TEAM SAYS COOLING MAY LAST FOR MORE THAN 200 YEARS.

Posted on May 7, 2013 | Leave a comment

There was an uptick in Sunspot numbers and F10.7cm radio flux.   Sunspots monthly average went up to 72  versus  55 in March.   Cycle 24’s  pattern seems somewhat reminiscent of Cycle 23 during its time at or near maximum. (Click on charts to enlarge.)
cycles23_24APRIL13Chart curtsey of Solen.com
Sunspots appear to be in sync with the predicted path shown as the green line in the chart.

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Posted in Global Temperatures, IPCC, Radiation, Solar Activity, Solar Cycle 24, Solar Cycle 25, Solar Flux, Sun, sun and climate, Sunspots

The Alarmists Are The Real Deniers

Posted on April 23, 2013 | Leave a comment

The new normal according to the Alarmist warmers is that “cooling is warming.”  Every possible weather event, if it is unpleasant, is due to global warming. As the readers  of this post are very intelligent,  they remember that until the last 15 + years, the Alarmists have told us that global warming would mean hotter summers and winters.  That is what the alarmist’s climate models predicted but those predictions are being shown to be terribly wrong.  So what’s an alarmist to do?  They are hoping that you don’t notice that they are changing their mantra without ever acknowledging that they were wrong.
But what are the facts?   The “Updated on 23 April 2013” chart, below, shows that in the past two weeks, the US has experienced 4163 record low temperatures for this time of year.  We believe that this is weather and it is always changing.  But to the desperate Alarmists, it is the result of global warming.
Recordlows2wksUS
Chart by Ham Weather.com (click on chart to enlarge.)
A posting by David Deming  in the Washington Times, titled “The real deniers of climate change”  characterizes the data verses the alarmists contention.  He says:
“The Northern Hemisphere is experiencing unusually cold weather. Snow cover last December was the greatest since satellite monitoring began in 1966. The United Kingdom had the coldest March weather in 50 years, and there were more than a thousand record low temperatures in the United States. The Irish meteorological office reported that March “temperatures were the lowest on record nearly everywhere.” Spring snowfall in Europe was also high. In Moscow, the snow depth was the highest in 134 years of observation. In Kiev, authorities had to bring in military vehicles to clear snow from the streets.
Cold-weather extremes are a natural climatic variation, and this is exactly the point. If the world were experiencing a climate crisis owing to global warming, there shouldn’t be a single record low temperature anywhere in the world. The Associated Press has assured us, though, that this cold spell is not only consistent with a warming globe, it is actually caused by global warming. The proffered explanation is that cold weather in Europe is a result of melting sea ice in the Arctic. If this special pleading strikes you as unusually tendentious, it is all in the best tradition of explaining away ex post facto any weather event that appears to contradict the ruling paradigm.”
Deming cites numerous examples of the how wrong the Alarmists have been over the years.  The full posting is worth the reading to see what he has to say.
He concludes with this:
“With each passing year, it is becoming increasingly clear that global warming is not a scientific theory subject to empirical falsification, but a political ideology that has to be fiercely defended against any challenge. It is ironic that skeptics are called “deniers” when every fact that would tend to falsify global warming is immediately explained away by an industry of denial.”
cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, Environment, EPA, Global Temperatures, Ice Melt, IPCC, Media Bias, Storms/hurricanes

GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE: SCIENCE AND POLITICS

Posted on April 18, 2013 | Leave a comment

A referred paper in Quaestiones Geographicae* written by Cliff Ollier titled “Global Warming and Climate Change: Science and Politics “ maintains the idea that global warming will bring on devastation is a dangerous belief.  Ollier challenges the belief that CO2 is a major force in defining the globe’s climate.   He also takes on the corollary issues such as sea level, the Sun and climate.  The abstract to the paper follows:
The threat of dangerous climate change from anthropogenic global warming has decreased.
• Global temperature rose from 1975 to 1998, but since then has leveled off.
• Sea level is now rising at about 1.5mm per year based on tide gauges, and satellite data suggests it may even be falling.
o Coral islands once allegedly threatened by drowning have actually increased in area.
o Ice caps cannot possibly slide into the sea (the alarmist model) because they occupy kilometres-deep basins extending below sea level.
o Deep ice cores show a succession of annual layers of snow accumulation back to 760,000 years and in all that time never melted, despite times when the temperature was higher than it is today.
o Sea ice shows no change in 30 years in the Arctic.
• Emphasis on the greenhouse effect stresses radiation and usually leads to neglect of important factors like convection.
o Water is the main greenhouse gas.
o The CO2 in the ocean and the atmosphere are in equilibrium: if we could remove CO2 from the atmosphere the ocean would give out more to restore the balance. Increasing CO2 might make the ocean less alkaline but never acid.
• The sun is now seen as the major control of climate, but not through greenhouse gases.
o There is a very good correlation of sunspots and climate.
o Solar cycles provide a basis for prediction. Solar Cycle 24 has started and we can expect serious cooling.
• Many think that political decisions about climate are based on scientific predictions but what politicians get are projections based on computer models.
o The UN’s main adviser, the IPCC, uses adjusted data for the input, their models and codes remain secret, and they do not accept responsibility for their projections.
The issues listed in the Abstract are explored in some detail in the full paper that you can access by clicking here.
cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, CO2, CO2 positive feedback, glaciers, Global Temperatures, Ice Melt, IPCC, Ocean Acidification, Ocean heat content, Sea Ice, Sea Level, Solar Activity, sun and climate