Category Archives: IPCC

Sunspot Number History Change Is Underway


For those readers of this blog that follow the monthly update of Solar Cycle 24, things are about to change. For the better I think, but until the final report is 400yrsofsunspotcyclesUnknownreleased, we wont know for sure. Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) a part of the World Data Center has issued a Sunspot Bulletin that says:”

                                           Warning of Major Data Change

Over the past 4 years a community effort has been carried out to revise entirely the historical sunspot number series. A good overview of the analyses and identified corrections is provided in the recent review paper: Clette, F., Svalgaard, L., Vaquero, J.M., Cliver, E. W.,”Revisiting the Sunspot Number. A 400-Year Perspective on the Solar Cycle”, Space Science Reviews, Volume 186, Issue 1-4, pp. 35-103.

Now that the new data series has been finalized, we are about to replace the original version of our sunspot data by an entirely new data set on July 1st. On this occasion, we decided to simultaneously introduce changes in several conventions in the data themselves and also in the distributed data files.

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CAGW Is A Religion—As Illustrated By Members of The Royal Society Of London


The Royal Society of London was formed in 1660. The membership contains many world famous scientists such as Isaac Newton, Stephen Hawking, Michele Dougherty (no kidding), etc. They consider themselves the world’s preeminent science society. In any event,  they must certainly rank among the world’s most eminent.

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NOAA Alleges New Temperature Data Refutes The “Pause”–But Does It?


A New NOAA data set is being touted as having proved that the global temperature “pause” does not exist. Examination of the new data suggests that this is a desperate attempt to remove the “pause” before the December United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP21 meeting in Paris.   Bob Tisdale has posted a “before and after” chart for this century.  (click on chart for clarity).

pusebusteranimation-2How does this new temperature finding compare with the other measuring systems?   The magnitude of the change of the new data are incredible. A discussion of what was changed will follow after we look at how this new temperature finding compare with the other measuring systems.

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Tenth International Conference on Climate Change


global-warming-south-carolina-political-cartoonI attended the “Tenth International Conference on Climate Change” held in Washington, DC on June 11-12, 2015.   It surpassed my expectations. The panel presentations were uniformly excellent. While I consider myself to be reasonably well informed regarding this topic, I realized that are certain important areas of which I knew little.     For example I learned many things about the way the EPA operates that makes me very angry. Several of the current Republican candidates for President have announced that if they are elected they plan to shut down the EPA and let the State’s environmental groups handle these issues.   I plan a future posting about this topic.

Mainly the Conference covered global warming science. However there were some tributes to contributors who have made an impact.   One interesting presentation was Christopher Monckton’s defense of Dr Willie Soon.

The entire conference is on video. It can be seen by clicking on this link

cbdakota

Pope Francis Is Poorly Informed About Global Warming


For centuries, the “consensus science” stated the Earth was the center of the universe. In 1610 the skeptic, Galileo Galilei, publicly disagreed saying the Earth revolved around the Sun rather than the other way. The Catholic Church leaders called this a fallacy.  Galileo published his theory in 1632 and was found guilty of heresy and placed under house arrest where he remained until his death 9 years later. It now looks like the Church is about to make the same mistake of picking sides concerning the controversial scientific theory of catastrophic man-made global warming (CAGW). It is said that Pope Francis will issue an Encyclical saying that World should support the United Nations plan to eliminate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It doesn’t make sense.

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Green’s Say That Computer Projections Are Just Basic Physics- Ok, But They Only Use A Very Small Portion Of The Physics


Basic physics?   Far from it. The greens are trying to sell this. A recent posting on this site has a video in which Carol Andress of the  Environmental Defense Fund uses this line in a debate with Marc Morano.   Ms Andress seems particularly ill informed so she had to resort to this line of “Just Basic Physics”.

Doug Hoffman on his blog site, The Resilient Earth, had this so say about Basic Physics:”

It should come as no surprise that General Circulation Models (GCM), the basis for more comprehensive computer climate models, are based on differential equations, as are weather forecasting models and hurricane path prediction models. As we all know, weather forecasts are not very accurate, only giving a general idea of conditions a few days out, and hurricane models generally cannot predict the point of landfall until just before a storm comes ashore. But GCMs are different from weather programs even though they use some of the same equations. That is a refrain often repeated by supercilious climate modelers. It is true that climate models also include extra factors like sea ice models and “parametrization” for things like clouds. Unfortunately for them their models are not immune to the laws of computation that make their short term cousins grow more and more inaccurate over time.”

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Texas Flooding and CO2 Emissions.


James Spann is an AMS certified meteorologist and Host of WeatherBrains.     His views on the connection between man-made global warming and the severe

Houston Post Photo

Houston Post Photo

flooding that parts of Texas have recently experienced were posted in a Medium Corporation blog, titled “The Age Of Disinformation”.  I have selected several things he has to say :

“No doubt national news media outlets are out of control when it comes to weather coverage, and their idiotic claims find their way to us on a daily basis. The Houston flooding is a great example. We are being told this is “unprecedented”… Houston is “under water”… and it is due to manmade global warming.

Yes, the flooding in Houston yesterday was severe, and a serious threat to life and property. A genuine weather disaster that has brought on suffering.

But, no, this was not “unprecedented”. Flooding from Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 was more widespread, and flood waters were deeper.”

“Flood events in 2009, 2006, 1998, 1994, 1989, 1983, and 1979 brought higher water levels to most of Houston, and there were many very serious flood events before the 1970s.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that the Texas record 24-hour rainfall occurred July25 and 26, 1976 in Alvin, Texas. The rainfall amount was 42inches.

I experienced a serious flood event in the 1970s in Beaumont, Texas. One day heavy rain began to fall in North East Texas, supercharging the Neches River. By the time the rain arrived in South East Texas, where Beaumont is sited, the Neches River was running over its banks. Adding to that, Beaumont got roughly 10 inches of rain in a 24-hour period . When the rain stopped, sightseers in canoes were paddling down the street in front of my house.

One more lifting from Mr. Spann’s posting:

“Back to my point… many professional meteorologists feel like we are fighting a losing battle when it comes to national media and social media hype and disinformation. They will be sure to let you know that weather events they are reporting on are “unprecedented”, there are “millions and millions in the path”, it is caused by a “monster storm”, and “the worst is yet to come” since these events are becoming more “frequent”.

You will never hear about the low tornado count in recent years, the lack of major hurricane landfalls on U.S. coasts over the past 10 years, or the low number of wildfires this year. It doesn’t fit their story. But, never let facts get in the way of a good story…. there will ALWAYS be a heat wave, flood, wildfire, tornado, tyhpoon, cold wave, and snow storm somewhere. And, trust me, they will find them, and it will probably lead their newscasts. But, users beware…”

cbdakota

 

 

 

 

 

Climate Debate And Pope Francis’ Encyclical On The Environment


A debate about the theory of catastrophic man-made global warming (CAGW) took place recently between Carol Andress, of the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) and Marc Morano of the Climate Depot Blog. The EDF website lists Ms Andress as having expertise in “Climate Change, U.S, Congress, air quality and U.S. climate policy”.

There are two themes during this debate; one is the credibility of the science supporting the CAGW and the other is Pope Francis’ expected papal encyclical on the environment.

The first theme was entirely won by Marano. This has been the consistent outcome of these debates between warmers and skeptics.   It is difficult for skeptics to get a warmer to debate anymore.  Because Ms Andress is considered an expert by the EDF, I am  further persuaded  that the EDF, as an organization, is weak on science as are most of the environmentally focused NGOs.  While nothing Ms Andress said with regard to the second theme was persuasive, the Pope appears to have been taken in. There is little likelihood at this point that he will change his mind.

Watch the debate on this YouTube video–it will initially open up with what looks to be another topic, but give it several seconds and it will switch to the debate.  The total time for the debate is about 15 minutes.

cbdakota

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cold Weather Causes 20 Times More Deaths Than Hot Weather


The science deniers* (aka warmers) tell us that a major reason to fear global warming is because so many people will die from the heat. But would an increase in global temperatures actually reduce the number of coldweatherimagesdeaths? According to study published in The Lancet of over 74million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries, cold weather kills 20 times as many people as does hot weather. On balance, warmer weather would probably reduce the number of weather related deaths.

If you are not familiar with The Lancet, Wiki describes it this way:

The Lancet is a weekly peer-reviewed general medical journal. It is one of the world’s oldest and best known general medical journals,[1] and has been described as one of the most prestigious medical journals in the world.[2] In the 2013 Journal Citation Reports, The Lancet‍ ’ s impact factor was ranked second among general medical journals, (at 39.207), after The New England Journal of Medicine (54,420)“

 ScienceDaily.com summarized the Lancet study as follows:

The study analysed over 74 million (74,225,200) deaths between 1985 and 2012 in 13 countries with a wide range of climates, from cold to subtropical. Data on daily average temperature, death rates, and confounding variables (eg, humidity and air pollution) were used to calculate the temperature of minimum mortality (the optimal temperature), and to quantify total deaths due to non-optimal ambient temperature in each location. The researchers then estimated the relative contributions of heat and cold, from moderate to extreme temperatures.

Around 7.71% of all deaths were caused by non-optimal temperatures, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from around 3% in Thailand, Brazil, and Sweden to about 11% in China, Italy, and Japan. Cold was responsible for the majority of these deaths (7.29% of all deaths), while just 0.42% of all deaths were attributable to heat.

The study also found that extreme temperatures were responsible for less than 1% of all deaths, while mildly sub-optimal temperatures accounted for around 7% of all deaths — with most (6.66% of all deaths) related to moderate cold.

According to Dr Gasparrini, “Current public-health policies focus almost exclusively on minimizing the health consequences of heat waves. Our findings suggest that these measures need to be refocused and extended to take account of a whole range of effects associated with temperature.”

 Study upon study in the past have arrived at this same conclusion although this may be the most comprehensive of such studies. No doubt the science deniers will continue to deny these facts.

cbdakota

*I use the word “deniers” reluctantly. However the catastrophic man-made global warming folks,  have recently undertaken a plan to fully brand all skeptics as “deniers.”  Maybe an unwise choice, but should we fight fire with fire?

 

 

 

 

John Kerry Again Proves His Ignorance


Why am I picking on John Kerry again?  Partly because he is such an easy target but mostly I want people to be aware of how unaware he is.  In 2009,  the then Senator Kerry said that the Arctic would be ice free in 2014. As you know this prediction was very wrong.  He knew this because he claimed to be up-to-date with all the real science as provided by the real scientists. Kerry chose to lecture Senator James Inhofe, someone he said failed to get it when it comes to global warming and in this case Arctic Sea ice.  Watch this Youtube to see the “haughty”  Senator in action:

By the way, Jim Inhofe is probably the most knowledgeable man in Congress with regard to global warming science.

Kerry is the chief US negotiator in the talks with Iran about Iran’s program to make nuclear bombs. God help us.  And he seems to be the President’s lead man in the Global Warming talks scheduled for Paris this coming December.  IMHO, he is in way over his head, but he is so egotistical, he thinks he knows it all.   Lecturing Senator Inhofe!!!

Look at these two posting to see how misinformed he can be, even when he has a prepared speech.   Click here and here.

cbdakota