Category Archives: Global Temperatures

Cold Weather Causes 20 Times More Deaths Than Hot Weather


The science deniers* (aka warmers) tell us that a major reason to fear global warming is because so many people will die from the heat. But would an increase in global temperatures actually reduce the number of coldweatherimagesdeaths? According to study published in The Lancet of over 74million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries, cold weather kills 20 times as many people as does hot weather. On balance, warmer weather would probably reduce the number of weather related deaths.

If you are not familiar with The Lancet, Wiki describes it this way:

The Lancet is a weekly peer-reviewed general medical journal. It is one of the world’s oldest and best known general medical journals,[1] and has been described as one of the most prestigious medical journals in the world.[2] In the 2013 Journal Citation Reports, The Lancet‍ ’ s impact factor was ranked second among general medical journals, (at 39.207), after The New England Journal of Medicine (54,420)“

 ScienceDaily.com summarized the Lancet study as follows:

The study analysed over 74 million (74,225,200) deaths between 1985 and 2012 in 13 countries with a wide range of climates, from cold to subtropical. Data on daily average temperature, death rates, and confounding variables (eg, humidity and air pollution) were used to calculate the temperature of minimum mortality (the optimal temperature), and to quantify total deaths due to non-optimal ambient temperature in each location. The researchers then estimated the relative contributions of heat and cold, from moderate to extreme temperatures.

Around 7.71% of all deaths were caused by non-optimal temperatures, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from around 3% in Thailand, Brazil, and Sweden to about 11% in China, Italy, and Japan. Cold was responsible for the majority of these deaths (7.29% of all deaths), while just 0.42% of all deaths were attributable to heat.

The study also found that extreme temperatures were responsible for less than 1% of all deaths, while mildly sub-optimal temperatures accounted for around 7% of all deaths — with most (6.66% of all deaths) related to moderate cold.

According to Dr Gasparrini, “Current public-health policies focus almost exclusively on minimizing the health consequences of heat waves. Our findings suggest that these measures need to be refocused and extended to take account of a whole range of effects associated with temperature.”

 Study upon study in the past have arrived at this same conclusion although this may be the most comprehensive of such studies. No doubt the science deniers will continue to deny these facts.

cbdakota

*I use the word “deniers” reluctantly. However the catastrophic man-made global warming folks,  have recently undertaken a plan to fully brand all skeptics as “deniers.”  Maybe an unwise choice, but should we fight fire with fire?

 

 

 

 

10th International Conference On Climate Change—June 11 & 12 in Washington DC


This year the International Conference On Climate Change will be held in Washington DC on the 11th and 12th of June.   The presenters are Major League skeptics. Among the panel participants are Singer, Idso, Monckton, Legates, Fred SingerSoon, Briggs, Michaels, Watts, Carter, Loehle, Ball, etc..  The keynote speakers are Senator Jim Inhofe, Journalist Mark Steyn, Representative Lamar Smith and Princeton Professor William Happer.

S. Fred Singer

Full information, regarding registration, location, program & speakers and hotel reservations can be found by clicking here.

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Unrealistic Predictions FromThe US Global Change Research Program


On April 7, the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) released a draft for public review of its upcoming Climate & Health Assessment. No citations or quotations from the draft are permitted. Public comments are solicited with a requirement that they arrive prior to 7 June.  The Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) is preparing comments to be presented to USGCRP. If the USGCRP failed models6a010536b58035970c0168e987ee9d970c-400wioperates like the EPA, any comment that does not concur with their already made conclusions will be ignored.

SEPP have made some preliminary observations in their TWTW postings. The following is from the 16 May issue:

Even though the US government spent over $35 billion on climate science research from fiscal year 1993 to FY 2013, federal agencies have failed to create a global climate model, verified and validated, for predicting future temperatures. Without a valid climate model, temperature forecasts are highly speculative. Thus, the core of the entire USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment is speculative. Labeling such statements with terms such as Very Likely or High Confidence is pure fiction. There is no objective method to assess likelihood or confidence. Further, there is no indication that government agencies are attempting to create a valid climate model that has predictive power (skill).”

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Skeptic Reference Sources—1350+ Peer-Reviewed Papers


This is the second posting of skeptic reference sources. This time it is “1350+ Peer- Reviewed Papers Supporting Skeptic Arguments Against ACC/AGW Alarmism”.   The papers have been sorted by categories to Cooling_is_the_New_Warmingmake the desired documents easily located. It is interesting that PopularTechnology.net supplied “Rebuttals to Criticisms” in the beginning. These are also a leg-up for you in discussions with warmers.

Click here to enter the PopularTechnology.net website.

cbdakota

April 2015 Global Atmospheric Temperature


The University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) satellite global atmospheric temperature measurements show that April was slightly cooler than March. The March anomaly was O.14°C and April’s was 0.07°C. The UAH measurements confirm the “18+ years of no statistically significant evidence of global warming”. The chart (click to enlarge) shown below uses the new Version 6.0 dataset which replaces Version 5.6.

UAH_LT_1979_thru_April_2015_v61

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5 IPCC Assessments Don’t Show Correlation Of Temperature And Severe Weather


Another Ronald Bailey of Reason.com posting is our feature today.   On 8 April, Bailey posted “Detection of Enhanced Greenhouse Warming:What The IPCC Said Back In 1990”.

si[imagesBailey’s previous posting listed reasons why he had switched from a skeptic to a warmer. He said there was a lot of pushback to that posting. People were challenging his assertions about climate models predictions of hurricanes, droughts, etc. He decided to review the 5 Assessment Reports (AR) produced by the Intergovernmental Pannel on Climate Change (IPCC), beginning with the first one issued in 1990. The results of the review in his words:

“As far as I can tell, all of the reports admit that the observational data do not definitively show any trends with regard to those particular aspects of climate. With regard to model outputs concerning those trends, the IPCC reports characterize them using tentative terminology such as “encouraging” back in 1990 and “medium evidence” and “medium agreement” in matching observational trends in the most recent report. In general, the models are not predicting a worsening trend in hurricanes, tornadoes, and droughts, at least in the short run.”

So the warmer’s bible cannot make the connection between “global warming” and severe weather.   But as that does not fit the narrative of the alarmist among the AGW crowd, they are ignoring this inconvenient fact.

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Skeptic And Warmer Viewpoints On Global Warming


arguinginternetimagesRonald Bailey is the science correspondent for Reason.com. On 3 April he posted: “What Would Convince You That Man-Made Global Warming Is Real.” He was, at one time, a skeptic but several years ago, changed is mind and became a believer in the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory. His posting has examples of why he changed his mind and wonders if these examples might convince other skeptics to become a warmer.

The posting resulted in a number of responses, some of which I will cover in this posting. The responses essentially are refutations of Bailey’s reasons for his conversion

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No Global Warming For 18 Years, 4 Months


When the “climategate” emails were revealed in 1998, a leading warmer scientist, Dr. Kevin Trenberth, said: “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” He said in a 2014 UCAR publication, that he did not mean that quote the way everyone has taken it. Well, maybe. But he and 60 other warmer scientist have published theories trying to explain why there has been no statistically significant rise in the Global temperatures in 18 + years.

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Science Lessons For Secretary Of State Kerry


David Middleton has written a Guest posting in the WattsUpWithThat (WUWT) blog titled “Science lessons for Secretary of State John F Kerry”. Middleton opens with this: “Secretary of State John F. Kerry’s recent remarks on climate change at the Atlantic Council were so scientifically illiterate that I find it difficult to believe that he managed to barely get a D in geology at Yale University.  As a US citizen and geoscientist, I feel it is my patriotic and professional duty to provide Secretary Kerry with a few complimentary science lessons.”

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The 2014-2015 El Nino Is Not Living Up To Predictions


The 2014-2015 El Nino was forecast to be powerful.   The warmers hoped that this El Nino would make a significant upward change in the Global temperature. This they believed would put an end to the 18+ years of no 137115995343014077901601197_CS_El_Ninostatistical increase in global atmospheric temperature, known by many as the “pause”. Even if it does, it does not seem to correlate with the rise in atmospheric CO2, so it could be considered just another natural forcing agent. The NoTricksZone posting of: “Spiegel: NOAA “Embarrassment” Over “Four Years Of Failed El Nino Forecasts”…”Numerous Buoys Have Ceased To Function”* relates the views of the Spiegel Science Editor journalist Axel Bojanowski.

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