Category Archives: Climate Models

Pope Francis Is Poorly Informed About Global Warming


For centuries, the “consensus science” stated the Earth was the center of the universe. In 1610 the skeptic, Galileo Galilei, publicly disagreed saying the Earth revolved around the Sun rather than the other way. The Catholic Church leaders called this a fallacy.  Galileo published his theory in 1632 and was found guilty of heresy and placed under house arrest where he remained until his death 9 years later. It now looks like the Church is about to make the same mistake of picking sides concerning the controversial scientific theory of catastrophic man-made global warming (CAGW). It is said that Pope Francis will issue an Encyclical saying that World should support the United Nations plan to eliminate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It doesn’t make sense.

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Legates To Receive Climate Change Award


The 2015 “Climate Change Awards” to be given out at the 10th International Conference on Climate Change will go to:

Sen. Jim Inhofe, who will receive the Political Leadership on Climate Change Award, sponsored by The Heritage Foundation, at the breakfast keynote at 8 a.m. Thursday, June 11.

William Happer, Ph.D., winner of the 2015 Frederick Seitz Memorial Award, sponsored by the Science & Environmental Policy Project

David Legates, Ph.D., winner of the Courage in Defense of Science Award, sponsored by the Texas Public Policy Foundation

Anthony Watts, winner of the Excellence in Climate Science Communication Award, sponsored by the International Climate Science Coalition

Robert M. Carter, Ph.D., winner of the Lifetime Achievement in Climate Science Award, sponsored by The Heartland Institute.

I know all of them by reputation and they are deserving.  But I only know one of the recipients, David Legates,  personally.  He is a man of principal and a real scholar.   He has faced real adversity from his University and from the politicians in his state.  They don’t want discussion or debate.  They want submission to their point of view. He has faced this opposition and carried on.  And this award signifies he has achieved widespread recognition for the high quality of his work.   Way to go David.

cbdakota

 

 

Green’s Say That Computer Projections Are Just Basic Physics- Ok, But They Only Use A Very Small Portion Of The Physics


Basic physics?   Far from it. The greens are trying to sell this. A recent posting on this site has a video in which Carol Andress of the  Environmental Defense Fund uses this line in a debate with Marc Morano.   Ms Andress seems particularly ill informed so she had to resort to this line of “Just Basic Physics”.

Doug Hoffman on his blog site, The Resilient Earth, had this so say about Basic Physics:”

It should come as no surprise that General Circulation Models (GCM), the basis for more comprehensive computer climate models, are based on differential equations, as are weather forecasting models and hurricane path prediction models. As we all know, weather forecasts are not very accurate, only giving a general idea of conditions a few days out, and hurricane models generally cannot predict the point of landfall until just before a storm comes ashore. But GCMs are different from weather programs even though they use some of the same equations. That is a refrain often repeated by supercilious climate modelers. It is true that climate models also include extra factors like sea ice models and “parametrization” for things like clouds. Unfortunately for them their models are not immune to the laws of computation that make their short term cousins grow more and more inaccurate over time.”

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Climate Debate And Pope Francis’ Encyclical On The Environment


A debate about the theory of catastrophic man-made global warming (CAGW) took place recently between Carol Andress, of the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) and Marc Morano of the Climate Depot Blog. The EDF website lists Ms Andress as having expertise in “Climate Change, U.S, Congress, air quality and U.S. climate policy”.

There are two themes during this debate; one is the credibility of the science supporting the CAGW and the other is Pope Francis’ expected papal encyclical on the environment.

The first theme was entirely won by Marano. This has been the consistent outcome of these debates between warmers and skeptics.   It is difficult for skeptics to get a warmer to debate anymore.  Because Ms Andress is considered an expert by the EDF, I am  further persuaded  that the EDF, as an organization, is weak on science as are most of the environmentally focused NGOs.  While nothing Ms Andress said with regard to the second theme was persuasive, the Pope appears to have been taken in. There is little likelihood at this point that he will change his mind.

Watch the debate on this YouTube video–it will initially open up with what looks to be another topic, but give it several seconds and it will switch to the debate.  The total time for the debate is about 15 minutes.

cbdakota

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10th International Conference On Climate Change—June 11 & 12 in Washington DC


This year the International Conference On Climate Change will be held in Washington DC on the 11th and 12th of June.   The presenters are Major League skeptics. Among the panel participants are Singer, Idso, Monckton, Legates, Fred SingerSoon, Briggs, Michaels, Watts, Carter, Loehle, Ball, etc..  The keynote speakers are Senator Jim Inhofe, Journalist Mark Steyn, Representative Lamar Smith and Princeton Professor William Happer.

S. Fred Singer

Full information, regarding registration, location, program & speakers and hotel reservations can be found by clicking here.

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Unrealistic Predictions FromThe US Global Change Research Program


On April 7, the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) released a draft for public review of its upcoming Climate & Health Assessment. No citations or quotations from the draft are permitted. Public comments are solicited with a requirement that they arrive prior to 7 June.  The Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) is preparing comments to be presented to USGCRP. If the USGCRP failed models6a010536b58035970c0168e987ee9d970c-400wioperates like the EPA, any comment that does not concur with their already made conclusions will be ignored.

SEPP have made some preliminary observations in their TWTW postings. The following is from the 16 May issue:

Even though the US government spent over $35 billion on climate science research from fiscal year 1993 to FY 2013, federal agencies have failed to create a global climate model, verified and validated, for predicting future temperatures. Without a valid climate model, temperature forecasts are highly speculative. Thus, the core of the entire USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment is speculative. Labeling such statements with terms such as Very Likely or High Confidence is pure fiction. There is no objective method to assess likelihood or confidence. Further, there is no indication that government agencies are attempting to create a valid climate model that has predictive power (skill).”

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Snowy South Dakota-May 2015


Weather forecast for Gettysburg SD.. My old home town.  Damn that global warming!!!!!! (sarc)

Sunday 05/10    100%Snow

snow_woman_cartoon_597325Windy with rain changing to snow. Lows overnight in the low 30s.
Snow

Monday 05/11      80%
Snow
Windy with periods of rain and snow in the morning changing to rain showers late. High 47F. Winds NNW at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches.

cbdakota

Skeptic Reference Sources—1350+ Peer-Reviewed Papers


This is the second posting of skeptic reference sources. This time it is “1350+ Peer- Reviewed Papers Supporting Skeptic Arguments Against ACC/AGW Alarmism”.   The papers have been sorted by categories to Cooling_is_the_New_Warmingmake the desired documents easily located. It is interesting that PopularTechnology.net supplied “Rebuttals to Criticisms” in the beginning. These are also a leg-up for you in discussions with warmers.

Click here to enter the PopularTechnology.net website.

cbdakota

More Green Predictions That Are Way Off Base


cartoon-gw-causes-stuffThis is a reblog of a posting by Elizabeth Price Foley on Instapundit.      Clever roundup of the folly of the Green movement.  Be sure to click on the links.  They confirm the folly.  cbdakota

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5 IPCC Assessments Don’t Show Correlation Of Temperature And Severe Weather


Another Ronald Bailey of Reason.com posting is our feature today.   On 8 April, Bailey posted “Detection of Enhanced Greenhouse Warming:What The IPCC Said Back In 1990”.

si[imagesBailey’s previous posting listed reasons why he had switched from a skeptic to a warmer. He said there was a lot of pushback to that posting. People were challenging his assertions about climate models predictions of hurricanes, droughts, etc. He decided to review the 5 Assessment Reports (AR) produced by the Intergovernmental Pannel on Climate Change (IPCC), beginning with the first one issued in 1990. The results of the review in his words:

“As far as I can tell, all of the reports admit that the observational data do not definitively show any trends with regard to those particular aspects of climate. With regard to model outputs concerning those trends, the IPCC reports characterize them using tentative terminology such as “encouraging” back in 1990 and “medium evidence” and “medium agreement” in matching observational trends in the most recent report. In general, the models are not predicting a worsening trend in hurricanes, tornadoes, and droughts, at least in the short run.”

So the warmer’s bible cannot make the connection between “global warming” and severe weather.   But as that does not fit the narrative of the alarmist among the AGW crowd, they are ignoring this inconvenient fact.

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