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Natural Causes For Weather Changes


I post “Essay # 1 – Solar & Planetary Tidal Pumping – The Real Cause for Changes in Weather (Original Issue Dec. 18, 2023, Revised May 23, 2024 – Richard Cronin)” because I believe he has made interesting concepts regarding natural forces and weather.

An invisible force permeates the Universe. You don’t even think about it. Gravity and the ever-changing distances between major celestial bodies and Earth, causing Tidal Pumping which drives tectonics, volcanism, and changes to weather and climate.

It is very well known that Jupiter’s massive gravity field heats the moons Io, Ganymede, and Europa to drive extensive volcanism as they proceed through their elliptical orbits. Io is the most volcanic celestial body in the solar system. In fact, per recent NASA observations, these moons pump one another. This phenomenon is called Tidal Pumping or Tidal Heating. The Earth is affected in just such a manner by all major celestial bodies from the Sun out to Jupiter (Kent & Olsen, 2018).

Observe the animation of our Solar System with the gravity fields of the Sun and major planets flinging the Earth around in a helical or corkscrewing action. Neither Newton, Kepler, nor Einstein had any awareness of this motion and how it imposes stresses on the Earth’s crust, opening up Earth’s tectonic plates to spill immeasurable seismic heat into the South Pacific. This is the source of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).  See video, Key word search: Helical Solar System.

).  See video, Key word search: Helical Solar System.

Gravitational effects within the Solar System drive Tidal Pumping for the short term El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Orbiting the Milky Way and passing close to other massive stellar systems drives much greater Tidal Pumping effects and Ice Ages.

Completely unappreciated in the energy balance of the Earth and gravitational force are at least five (5) phenomena. Perhaps just as important is that these effects are not uniformly distributed. There are about 40 to 50 “hot spots” globally. Hawaii, Iceland, Samoa, Yellowstone, Campi Flegrei (Naples), the Gulf of Guinea off Africa, and the Gulf of Maine. Due to the El Niño initiated in 2023 the Gulf Stream and the Gulf of Maine were quite warm and had the adherents of Anthropogenic Climate Change alarmed. In past epochs the Gulf of Maine was quite volcanic, like Yellowstone. In fact, Hawaii and Iceland “co-pulsate”. (Mjelde, Faleide 2009)

The variances in gravitational forces from the Sun and even out to Jupiter exert Tidal Pumping forces on Earth’s crust, which is quite thin and fragile, thus spilling seismic heat into the South Pacific and drive the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Jupiter and Venus exaggerate the eccentricity of Earth’s orbit on a 405,000 year cycle (Kent, Olsen, et al 2018 Rutgers). Think of squeezing and re-squeezing a hard rubber ball and it heats up. This is what stirs seismic activity. The interior of the planet is not rigid and  unyielding. It is ductile and elastic with large reservoirs molten silicates and carbonates in the Upper Mantle as well as the molten Iron/Nickel Outer Core. The molten carbonates decompose by sulfur-based acids percolating up from the Lower Mantle. From penetrating radar observations it has been identified that lying 350 km below Yellowstone is a reservoir of molten carbonates measuring 25 km to 70 km thick and covers the area of Mexico. Researchers from the University of London estimate that if just 1 % of this reservoir were to decompose, it would be equivalent to burning 2.3 million barrels of oil.  The EPA now estimates that the Upper Mantle contains 100 trillion million metric tons of carbon in the Upper Mantle locked in carbonate minerals, which is decomposing under acidic attack. Moreover, it is now known that the core of the planet is not solid. It is the consistency of mushy butter, comprised of “superionic Iron” in constant motion. This is the real source of the Earth’s magnetic field (Butler & Tsuboi, 2021 / Sun & Kim, 2022 / He & Lin, 2023)

As the Solar System orbits the Milky Way, the Earth is flung about between the Sun and Jupiter the tail of a kite. The Earth is like a strip of cloth tied onto the tail. Tremendous stresses on Earth’s crust. Neither Newton, Kepler, nor Einstein were aware of this phenomenon.

The Sun’s gravity field pumps the Earth as we proceed through the Northern Hemisphere’s Winter Solstice (the Southern Hemisphere swings closest to the Sun) and, two weeks later, the Perihelion (the Earth’s closest approach to the Sun). These combined events rip and tear open the Trenches of the Ring of Fire to inject quantities immeasurable quantities of seismic heat into the waters of the South Pacific to drive the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The key stress points are the two terminal points of the Ring of Fire, the Tonga Trench. In addition to the Tonga Trench, the New Hebrides Trench and New Britain Trench drive the La Niña and the Peru/Chile trench drives the El Niño.


The line of latitude of the deepest point of the Tonga Trench, the Horizon Deep, lies at 23.3 degrees South latitude. The deepest point of the Peru/Chile Trench, the Richards Deep, lies at approx. 23.2 degrees South latitude. Earth’s current Obliquity, the angle of inclination is about 23.4 degrees. The Osbourne Trough associated with the Tonga Trench lies at 25.5 degrees South latitude This is nominally the line of maximum, maximum Tidal Pumping stresses across the South Pacific.

From 1989 to 2018, the pattern of Richter 5+ earthquakes has migrated from the New Hebrides Trench towards the Tonga Trench and from the Central American Trench towards the Peru-Chile Trench. (Chen & Tang, 2022).

Focus on Mid-Oceanic Ridge (MOR) systems is inappropriate. Seismic heat injection from plate fractures and hydrothermal vents along ridge systems or on the abyssal plain is readily diluted and the heat is dissipated. Arising from the trenches the column of warm waters remains relatively intact and is carried east to west as it approaches the surface. There is a subsurface plume effect. This is observed in the elevated sea surface temperatures, with the Torres Strait and Bismarck Sea show the greatest warming. See records of maximum sea surface temperatures in these regions, Sept. 2022.

As opposed to Mid-Oceanic Ridge systems, Trench systems cutting through continental shelves are particularly noteworthy. The continental shelves were the beaches formed during the Ice Ages. They are nearly a uniform 140 meters below current sea level, relatively shallow. The Peru-Chile Trench cuts through the continental shelf of South America at depth of 145 meters below current sea level.

The onset of the El Niño is signaled by a cold water upwelling along the coast of Peru and Chile. This is due the melting of methane clathrates beneath the ocean floor from the opening of the Peru/Chile Trench (J. Kamis – “Plate Climatology”). Frozen methane clathrates exist between 100 to 1000 meters below the ocean floor. This cold upwelling brings up deep water fish from the Humboldt Current. Due to the east-to-west plume effect, the surface waters of the central Pacific warm first, then spread eastward as the clathrate melting diminishes.

In 2021/2022, the Winter Solstice was DE. 21,2021. The Perihelion was Jan.4 2022.













On Jan. 15, 2022 the Tidal Pumping stresses which had accumulated over a rather lengthy La Niña ripped loose in the Tonga Trench in the southwest Pacific. The largest submarine volcano ever observed spewed an estimated 50 to 150 million tons of water vapor into the atmosphere. The Pacific continued to warm throughout 2022, aided by Jupiter’s closest approach to the Earth in 59 years which occurred on Sept. 26, 2022.  A giant hand turned up the steam vaporizer to the maximum setting so 2023 was deemed to be the “Hottest Year on Record”.

With the stresses relieved in the southwest Pacific, the Tidal Pumping stresses shifted to the Eastern Pacific, opening up the Peru/Chile Trench and other seismically active regions off South America to drive the 2023 El Niño. Typical of an El Niño there were no hurricane landfalls on the U.S. East Coast in 2023 tropical storms were steered out into the North Atlantic, although Tropical Storm Ophelia flooded New York City in Sept. 2023. That moisture still affects us as we proceeded into early 2024, with ample rain and mudslides in California, record snows at ski resorts around the world during the winter of 2023/2024and a cool rainy spring in Delaware.

It is bewildering how Svente Arrhenius (1896), Gilbert Plass (1956), and continuing through today’s pseudo-scientists have ignored or misunderstood water in their analyses, especially phase change and the Second Law of Thermodynamics.  Doesn’t anybody understand the cooling effects of the water cycle ? Arrhenius held the global absolute humidity at a fixed 10 grams per cubic meter. Plass entirely ignored the radiative effects Long Wave Infrared Radiation (LWIR) from cloud tops due to phase change. Condensation to rain and freezing to snow. The Earth’s surface temperature is controlled by low clouds (Kauppinen & Malmi, 2019). The Earth is the Water Planet. If you heat up on the planet’s surface, for whatever reason, you evaporate more water to provide more cooling via the water cycle. Such is the case of the 50 to 150 million tons of water vapor spewed out of the largest submarine volcano ever observed in the Tonga Trench on January 15, 2022. The steam reached the stratosphere. These waters continued to warm through 2022, aided by Jupiter’s closest approach to Earth in 59 years on Sept, 26, 2022  followed by precipitation and cooling in the winter of 2023/2024

An entirely separate discussion is necessary regarding the heat producing (exothermic) geochemical reactions inside the planet which are entirely ignored in the current heat balance of the Earth. Logically, Tidal Pumping should impart mixing for multiple exothermic geochemical reactions, such as decomposition of carbonates, serpenization to generate Hydrogen, plus Fischer-Tropsh and Sabatier reactions to generate hydrocarbons. There are really only two (2) “fossil fuels” – lignite coal produced from peat bogs and wetlands plus Kerogens produced by algae and phytoplankton wedged into shales. Indeed, the internal heat of the Earth resolves the Faint Young Sun Paradox, wherein photosynthetic life emerged approx. 3.5 billion years ago when the Earth should have been frozen solid, with no liquid water on the surface. At that time, the Sun was only 70 % of its current luminosity.


Further reading: “The Chthonian Planet – Why Life Exists on Earth (Human Activity in No Way Affects the Weather nor Climate – Issue Date March 17, 2023)”
Key word search: Chthonian Planet Cronin SSRN

Richard F. Cronin, BChE, MBA, P.E. (retired), 30 years E.I. DuPont de Nemours

cbdakota

 



 



 





 



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Range is the Rage: Its The EV Battery, Stupid


Range is the Rage

Car and Driver say that range is the all-important stat.  Car and Driver posting goes on to say:

 “Whether or not you make it to the next public charging spot, are able to complete your daily commute, or are instead stranded on the side of the road depends on it.

Range is so heavily scrutinized because EVs can travel on average barely half the distance of gas-powered vehicles before they require a “fill-up,” and because gas pumps are far more ubiquitous than fast chargers”.

The amount of charge of the EV’s battery is akin to the amount of gasoline (or diesel) in the ICE’s (internal compbution engine)tank.  The battery charge will determine how many miles your EV can go before it is exhausted. That is equivalent to an ICE running empty of gasoline. Many postings by EV owners are about trying to find an EV battery charging station before the battery is “empty”. see here and here and here .Pretty agonizing and unlike the feeling you have, that there is a gasoline station almost anywhere.  You can get more charge and thus miles of range by getting a bigger, heavier battery, but that drives the cost of the vehicle up.  You don’t have to buy a bigger motor to get more range, if you purchase a smaller, lighter ICE vehicle at a lesser cost. 

The EPA rates highway vehicle range and puts the range number on the vehicle’s window sticker in the show rooms.   They do this for Electric vehicles (EV) and internal combustion (ICE –gasoline and diesel) vehicles. The range provided by the EPA for EVs is almost always an overstatement according to Car and Driver. Car and Driver EV range tests are conducted at a steady 75 miles per hour (MPH). They do this “because highway driving is where range most matters”.  By contrast, ICE vehicles almost always beat the EPA ratings in the 75 MPH tests. This is because the ICE vehicles have transmission gears whereas only a few EV models have transmission gearing.  The EV motors must increase revolutions where the motors are less efficient.

There are other factors that affect range. One of which is temperature.  In cold weather, ICE vehicles heat the cabin using the waste heat that comes from combustion of the gasoline. In the summer, ICE engine heat is dissipated by the radiator. The EVs use a resistive heater that consumes a lot of battery power. 

The South Dakota Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Deployment Plan (SDEVIDP) referenced several tests relative to use of heaters in the cold weather and air conditioning in the hot weather.

 According to field testing performed by the Norwegian Auto Federation, operation on a standardized test course in temperatures ranging 21° F to 37° F reduced EV range by approximately 20% and they also lengthened charging times in cold temperatures. A similar result was observed in dynamometer testing by the American Automobile Association that indicated that without internal vehicle heating, EV battery range dropped by 12% at 20° F, but with the heater in operation, it dropped roughly 41%. Consistent with other studies, at 95° F, EV battery range dropped by 4% without air conditioning and by 17% with air conditioning in operation.

The Idaho National Laboratory conducted a study of EV charging under a broad range of temperature conditions over a nearly two-year period, using data collected from a taxi fleet operating in New York City. The study determined that the time to reach 80% state of charge (SOC) doubled or tripled at temperatures below 32° F.

There is another factor that limits range.  The manufacturers of the EV batteries recommend that you always keep the charge between 20% to 80%.  Not 0% to 100%.  So good management of the battery’s life limits the range to just 60%. More on this during the discussion of battery charging.

Summary

The EV range is usually overstated by the EPA.  To increase range, you would need a bigger battery and that is costly. Temperature, cold or warm, reduce the battery charge.  On a cold day, for example, by as much as 40%  if you use the cabin heater on a cold day.  To extend the battery’s life, it should not drop below 20% or exceed 80%.  You will have to recharge it more often to prevent it from going below 20%,

cbdakota

Its The EV Battery, Stupid!


The title is paraphrasing the Ragin Cajun, political adviser to the Clintons, James Carville. Carville said when asked about the biggest issue in an upcoming election, “it’s the economy, stupid” I contend that the biggest issue for the electric vehicle (EV) is the battery.

The battery represents the proposed transition from gasoline and diesel fuel to electricity.  The transition will not be easy, if at all.  Usually, major transitions have occurred because some new thing is better than the existing thing.  That is not happening here.  The EV is more costly, is less flexible, not as capable and is planned to be charged from an electrical grid that is sourced from wind turbines and solar cells.  The latter, the so-called renewable energy, has not demonstrated that it is capable of keeping the grids supplying a reliable supply of electricity 24/7. Nowhere. Nada. see here But politicians keep throwing money at these schemes.  You must wonder why they would do that.  Well maybe not.

The EV sales are not displacing gasoline and diesel vehicles because they are better.  No.  It is replacing those fuel driven vehicles by Government fiat.  Governments are giving EVs huge subsidies, and enacting regulatory systems making gasoline and diesel vehicles attain goals that are not reachable nor necessary.  Six states have legislated that no gasoline or diesel-powered vehicle can be manufactured or sold after 2030 to 2035. And the Feds are considering that too.

The WSJ blog posted Car Dealers to Biden: EV’s Are Not Selling reporting that 3900 US car dealerships wrote a letter to President Biden saying his EV sales mandate is not working. They told him that:

Dealers have a 103-day supply of EVs compared to 56 days for all cars. It takes them on average 65 days to sell an EV, about twice as long as for gas-powered cars. EV sales are slowing though manufacturers have slashed prices and increased discounts.

But most consumers aren’t “ready to make the change,” in part because EVs are still too expensive. Many apartment renters also don’t have garages for home charging, and public charging networks are spotty with one in four not functional, according to one study.

“Customers are also concerned about the loss of driving range in cold or hot weather,” the auto dealers say. “Some have long daily commutes and don’t have the extra time to charge the battery.

The dealers want the Administration to “tap the brakes” on its proposed tailpipe emissions rules that would effectively mandate that EVs comprise two-thirds of car sales by 2032

The dealers’ letter is an important political signal that progressive climate coercion isn’t as popular as Democrats think. Americans don’t like to be told what to do or what they must buy. As the dealers put it, “many people just want to make their own choice about what vehicle is right for them.” Imagine that.



The liabilities that are built in the EV battery are, to name a few:

  • The Range—how many miles can a charged battery propel a vehicle?
  • How long does it take to charge the battery?
  • What is the life of the battery?
  • How much is the cost of a replacement battery?
  • How safe are these batteries?
  • Will insurance rates be hiked up?
  • If most the materials needed to make a battery are suppled from
    China, is that worrisome?
  • Battery recycling?
  • Major electrical  revisions to supply @ home charging?
  • New fees replacing gasoline tax such as miles driven tax or a tax for charger use.
  • Government overreach?

The future postings will address these liabilities.

cbdakota

Unsold Electric Vehicles Piling Up in Car Dealerships


Epoch Times posted: “Waiting for Buyers to come: Unsold Electric Vehicle Piling up in Car Dealership”: 

The number of unsold electric vehicles at dealers in the second quarter tripled compared to the past year, signaling a weakened demand for the segment, said a recent report by leading auto-dealer data company Cox Automotive.

In the second quarter 2023, the average inventory for electric vehicles (EVs) topped more than 92,000 units on the ground at dealer lots, according to the 2023 Cox Automotive Mid-Year Review presentation. This is up 342 percent compared to second quarter 2022. During this period, the new “EV days’ supply,” which refers to the average number of days a warehouse holds inventory before selling it, rose 166 percent, to 92 days from 38.5 days. While the pace of EV sales is up, it is “not rising as fast as inventory builds,” said Jonathan Gregory, senior manager, Economic and Industry Insights.

Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are facing a “field of dreams moment,” he stated. “They have built inventory, and now they wait for buyers to come. This is one of the hottest topics we’ve had this year.”

Brands like Jaguar, Infiniti, and Lincoln had the highest days of supply, at over 100 days. The lowest numbers were seen among Toyota, Honda, Kia, and Lexus, with each brand having less than 30 days of supply.

Tesla continued to dominate the luxury EV segment with a market share of 25.5 percent, followed by Mercedes at 12.5 percent, BMW at 12.2 percent, and Lexus at 11 percent. Among EVs priced above $50,000, Ford held the biggest share at 22.1 percent, followed by Chevrolet at 12.1 percent.”

This is Money UK posting says resale of EVs are not going well in the UK::

Electric cars have endured the worst year in their short history in terms of falling prices with some ‘nearly new’ year-old battery vehicles losing more than half of their value, data shared exclusively with This is Money reveals.

The last 12 months has seen second-hand electric vehicle (EV) values plunge as a result of falling demand and an oversupply of used examples entering the market.

We reveal the 30 electric cars that have nosedived most, all of them shedding in excess of 30 per cent of their value a year ago, with the worst affected plummeting by more than half its average 2022 price.

But have we seen the worst of it for crashing EV prices? A market expert explains his prediction for what will happen to electric car values in the coming months – will they continue to drop like a stone or begin to level out? 

The Verge  Posts the volume of EV sales: “…. this past January for example: EVs made up 7.83 percent of new vehicle sales in the United States, with 66,416 battery electric vehicles and 14,143 plug-in

hybrid vehicles sold. That same month also saw the sale of 950,000 new ICE light-duty vehicles, as well as approximately another 3 million used ICE vehicles.”

Hybrids, remember, have a gasoline engine in them as well a big battery.  So that  66,416 EV were sold, and  950,000 ICEs sold in the same month.  Internal combustion engine sales are (ICE)14 times greater than EV sales.

One of the problems facing the sale of EVs is, to date, the EV industry has virtually no used car market! In addition to the constant EV charging challenges, who wants a used EV that may soon need an expensive battery replacement?

With about 73 percent of all car sales being that of used combustion engine cars, the lack of a resale market for EV’s may be a major problem for the auto industry.

Whether or not the new EVs pick up in sales, the resale picture does not look good.   But if the used car market does not pickup, it will probably be a bad omen for the EV industry.

The next posting looks at the car buyers’ views of EVs

cbdakota

The Basis for a Significant Amount of Global Warming Research has become Untethered from the Real World.


.

On November 30, 2020 Roger Pielke, jr  posted “The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science”. It was subtited : “Much of climate research is focused on implausible scenarios of the future, but implementing a course correction will be difficult”.  

It is almost a year and a half since posting but the problem still exists. 

NOAA Says Solar Cycle 25 Sunspots “Skyrocketed” in January


When Solar Cycle 25 activity is view versus the forecasted path and comparison to that of SC 24’s actual path seems to provide somewhat different conclusions.

The comparison of SC 24 and SC 25 when viewed at the same amount of time after the cycles started make them look like they are on the same track. Look at about 30 to 31 months after cycle start, the green line (SC 25) and the brown line (SC24) essentially at the same place. Graph curtsey of Solen.com

NOAAs Spaceweather has this to say about SC25’s activity.

SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 9-YEAR HIGHIn a continued sign of strength for Solar Cycle 25, sunspot counts just hit a 9-year high. This plot from NOAA shows how the monthly sunspot number skyrocketed in January 2023.”

Spaceweather‘s take is versus the official forecast chart, so that doesn’t mean much at any point in time except for the end point.   The first chart shows only the smoothed sunspot number.  

The Spaceweather chart goes beyond the smoothed sunspot numbers with the December and January raw numbers going up rapidly. SC last roughly 11 years. On the Spaceweather chart, it shows SC 24 sunspots jumped in 2012 which is 11 years ago.

We will have to wait to see if the numbers in the coming months continue the upward trend.

cbdakota

Study Says that 90% of Rainforest Carbon Offsets are Worthless


This has to be terrible news for Al Gore, John Kerry , Leo Dicaprio, etc.
They have been saying that their use of jet fuel and diesel fuel for ocean cruisers was alright because they have been buying offsets. What will be their excuse now?

The following posting by the Guardian titled “Revealed: more than 90% of rainforest carbon offsets by biggest provider are worthless, analysis shows |” should really shake up the global warming alarmists.

The forest carbon offsets approved by the world’s leading provider and used by Disney, Shell, Gucci and other big corporations are largely worthless and could make global heating worse, according to a new investigation.

The research into Verra, the world’s leading carbon standard for the rapidly growing $2bn (£1.6bn) voluntary offsets market, has found that, based on analysis of a significant percentage of the projects, more than 90% of their rainforest offset credits – among the most commonly used by companies – are likely to be “phantom credits” and do not represent genuine carbon reductions.

The analysis raises questions over the credits bought by a number of internationally renowned companies – some of them have labelled their products “carbon neutral”, or have told their consumers they can fly, buy new clothes or eat certain foods without making the climate crisis worse.

But doubts have been raised repeatedly over whether they are really effective.

The nine-month investigation has been undertaken by the Guardian, the German weekly Die Zeit and SourceMaterial, a non-profit investigative journalism organisation. It is based on new analysis of scientific studies of Verra’s rainforest schemes.

It has also drawn on dozens of interviews and on-the-ground reporting with scientists, industry insiders and Indigenous communities. The findings – which have been strongly disputed by Verra – are likely to pose serious questions for companies that are depending on offsets as part of their net zero strategies. https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2023/01/carbon_credits/giv-6562QtneEGS9p8ZT/ Verra, which is based in Washington DC, operates a number of leading environmental standards for climate action and sustainable development, including its verified carbon standard (VCS) that has issued more than 1bn carbon credits. It approves three-quarters of all voluntary offsets. Its rainforest protection programme makes up 40% of the credits it approves and was launched before the Paris agreement with the aim of generating revenue for protecting ecosystems.

Verra argues that the conclusions reached by the studies are incorrect, and questions their methodology. And they point out that their work since 2009 has allowed billions of dollars to be channelled to the vital work of preserving forests.

The investigation found that:

  • Only a handful of Verra’s rainforest projects showed evidence of deforestation reductions, according to two studies, with further analysis indicating that 94% of the credits had no benefit to the climate.
  • The threat to forests had been overstated by about 400% on average for Verra projects, according to analysis of a 2022 University of Cambridge study.
  • Gucci, Salesforce, BHP, Shell, easyJet, Leon and the band Pearl Jam were among dozens of companies and organisations that have bought rainforest offsets approved by Verra for environmental claims.
  • Human rights issues are a serious concern in at least one of the offsetting projects. The Guardian visited a flagship project in Peru, and was shown videos that residents said showed their homes being cut down with chainsaws and ropes by park guards and police. They spoke of forced evictions and tensions with park authorities.
  • The two studies from the international group of researchers found just eight out of 29 Verra-approved projects where further analysis was possible showed evidence of meaningful deforestation reductions.
  • The journalists were able to do further analysis on those projects, comparing the estimates made by the offsetting projects with the results obtained by the scientists. The analysis indicated about 94% of the credits the projects produced should not have been approved.
  • Credits from 21 projects had no climate benefit, seven had between 98% and 52% fewer than claimed using Verra’s system, and one had 80% more impact, the investigation found.
  • Separately, the study by the University of Cambridge team of 40 Verra projects found that while a number had stopped some deforestation, the areas were extremely small. Just four projects were responsible for three-quarters of the total forest that was protected.
  • The journalists again analysed these results more closely and found that, in 32 projects where it was possible to compare Verra’s claims with the study finding, baseline scenarios of forest loss appeared to be overstated by about 400%. Three projects in Madagascar have achieved excellent results and have a significant impact on the figures. If those projects are not included, the average inflation is about 950%.
  • The studies used different methods and time periods, looked at different ranges of projects, and the researchers said no modelling approach is ever perfect, acknowledging limitations in each study. However, the data showed broad agreement on the lack of effectiveness of the projects compared with the Verra-approved predictions.
  • Two of the studies have passed the peer review process and another has been released as a preprint

I recommend that you visit the Guardians full report. You can do that by clicking on the link at the beginning of this posting.

cbdakota

The West Cannot StopThe Underdeveloped Nations From Wanting to ImproveTheir People’s Wealth


The man-made global warming alarmists are trying to prevent the poor nations from getting fossil fuels to build their nations wealth. Loans to provide money to build electrification facilities powered by fossil fuels are denied. But these nations will not be denied. They will not be tricked into building unreliable wind or solar farms. China for example installs, each year, more new coal based plants than the rest of the world combined. Annual coal consumption is setting new records. And the hypocrisy of particularly of the EU Nations that have turned to coal to power their nations when their wind, and solar are unable to make up for the lost natural gas supplies from Russia. Just one more reason for the poorer nations to turn to fossil fuels.

The Oxford Union conducted a debate ” This House Believes Woke Culture Has Gone Too Far”. The last speaker was Konstantin Kisin. The attached video, his speech, can be watched by clicking here. https://twitter.com/i/status/1613830456243273730

I am not sure that those viewers of this blog that are not linked to Twitter, will be able to see this video. Please sign up with Twitter, now that it has new ownership. It’s worth it for this video.

cbdakota.

Tidal Pumping Drives Weather and Climate, including “Extreme Weather”


(Revised Nov 13, 2022)

The following is a guest posting by Richard Cronin. He provides a well-documented discussion of how Tidal Pumping drives weather and Climate.

By Richard Cronin

There is no “climate crisis”. The internal heat of the Earth delivered to the ocean floor is grossly misunderstood.

 An entirely unappreciated energy input onto the surface of our planet is Tidal Pumping. Not pumping water. Shifting our tectonic plates due to the Earth’s gyrations (Precession, Obliquity, Perihelion, and Orbital Eccentricity) in addition to our varying distance from the planetary gravity fields everywhere from the Sun out to Jupiter.

Milankovitch cycles have nothing to do with solar radiation. They have everything to do with tidal pumping. This information has been coming forward over the last decade by geologists, geophysicists, and astrophysicists.  Unfortunately, these disciplines have been overlooked in the discussion about climate.

Tidal pumping by the Sun, Precession of the Equinoxes, Obliquity, Perihelion, Orbital Eccentricity, as well as planetary alignments (particularly Sun, Venus, & Jupiter) move Earth’s tectonic plates.  Therefore, all of Earth’s internal heat is delivered to the surface, notably into the waters at the two (2) terminal points of the Pacific’s Ring of Fire. The seismic heat injection is Enormous. Per NASA, this energy input is approx. 99.5 % of all solar radiation but the flawed paradigm is that the internal heat of the Earth is dissipated in Mantle Convection. Mantle Convection and Subduction do not exist.

Per NASA’s very calculations: “The interior of the earth contributes more than 99.5 percent of the total heating of the surface compared with the sun!

This answer, of course is quite wrong because it assumes that 100% of the internal energy is radiated to the surface. In fact, the internal heat source drives powerful convective currents in the mantle so that nearly all of this thermal energy is lost.”

https://image.gsfc.nasa.gov/poetry/ask/a11779.html

The energy statement is true, but the dissipation of the internal heat into Mantle Convection is wrong. There is no Mantle Convection. The internal heat is delivered to the surface, specifically the ocean floor of our planet and greatly exceeds any causation from minuscule trace gases in our atmosphere.

At the Winter Solstice, the incrementally closer distance between the Sun and Southern Hemisphere induces greater plate movement across the Southern Hemisphere and greater seismicity in the Peru-Chile Trench to drive the El Niño. Alternately, these tidal stresses can find relief and induce greater seismicity in the Tonga-Kermadec Trenches to drive the La Niña. Elevated surface water temperatures near Papua-New Guinea are due to a heat plume emitted from the Tonga Trench, but the heating of these surface waters is also affected by the multi-plate, seismically active regions to the east of Papua-New Guinea, including the New Hebrides and New Britain Trenches. Ergo, sea surface temperatures are highest in these regions east of Papua New Guinea.

Current sea surface temperatures showing cooler waters in the central Pacific and elevated temperatures east of Papua New Guinea. Entirely typical of a strong La Niña:

In “Plate Climatology”, James Edward Kamis describes a single “Source Point” for the La Niña and El Niño as centered on the multi-plate, seismically active regions to the east of Papua-New Guinea. It seems doubtful to me that this region could drive the El Niño off the coast of Peru. I hold that the ENSO is a binodal condition, at either end of the Ring of Fire.

Via bathyscaphic ocean floor mapping, Hillier and Watt (2007) provided an estimate of 1.0 to 3.5 million oceanic seamounts which by definition are formed by submarine volcanoes. This estimate excludes estimates above latitudes 60 degrees North and South. See “Global distribution of seamounts from ship-track bathymetry data” in references.

The Dust Bowl years of the 1930s were caused by a strong, sustained La Niña. Drought across the plains states in summer months , punctuated by springtime flooding conditions further north.

The La Niña brings flooding monsoons across Bangladesh, while the Northern Hemisphere suffers extreme drought in the summer months. Extreme low water conditions across rivers of America’s interior as well as Europe. Yet earlier this spring the Yellowstone River flooded over its banks.

The geochemical reactions throughout the Upper and Lower Mantle are all exothermic (give off heat). Activation Energy is supplied by planetary Decompression. Fischer-Tropsch and Sabatier reactions produce methane and petroleum in unimaginable quantities. (See link). Most is diffused from the ocean floor. Land-based sources are minuscule. 

Hydrothermal vents and plain old ocean floor seepage is immeasurable and these acidic discharges react with alkaline ocean waters to release the Heat of Neutralization and the Heat of Dilution.

We have been under pronounced La Niña conditions since autumn of 2020. Last year we went thru the alphabet in hurricane names. Entirely typical of La Niña.

An estimated 50 million tons of water vapor spewed from the Tonga Trench volcano on Jan. 15, 2022. This largest submarine volcano ever observed will produce a warm, wet planet for years. A Richter 7.3 submarine earthquake struck off Tonga on Nov. 11, 2022. 

Areas of drought are also caused by an increase in katabatic winds. Moisture condenses on the southern face of the Himalayas, producing monsoons and floods across northern India and Bangladesh. Dry, hot winds flowing down from the Himalayas cause continuous dry conditions for Central Asia.

Significant tidal pumping stresses coincided with the Precession of the planet on Dec. 21, 2021 to tear open the Tonga Trench. Another stress-inducing event is the Perhelion, the closest approach between Earth and Sun, associated with the Earth’s elliptical orbit. The Perihelion occurs two (2) weeks after the Solstices. On April 30, 2022, there was a planetary alignment of Venus-Earth-Mars-Jupiter. On Sept. 26, Jupiter made its closest approach to Earth in 59 years. Tremendous tidal pumping stresses. Tremendous seismic energy release. Totally ignored.

References listed by date. Most of this information was issued in the last half decade. Copy and paste the titles into any web browser.

“Institute for Celestial Geodynamics” ( D. Zbikowski, et al )

“Continental Drift Theory – Unresolved Issues “

“Plate Climatology” by James Edward Kamis. Book published 2019.

“Topological inconsistency of continental drift on the present-sized Earth”

R Meservey. Science. 1969.

“Problem of Convection in the Earth’s Mantle”

E. N. Lyustikh, published in Geophysical Research Letters: 01 January 1969

“Pump-like Tidal Driving of Tectonic Plates – Plates 1” George W. Moore, AAPG Bulletin, GeoScience World, June 1, 1975

“The earth tides”

Judah Levine, December 1982 (NIST)

“Earth tides and the degassing of the Earth”

Khitarov, N. I. ; Voitov, G. I. , March 1982 (NIST)

“Global distribution of seamounts from ship-track bathymetry data”

J.K. Hillier, A.B. Watts, Geophysical Research Letters, July, 2007

—> By definition seamounts are formed by volcanic activity. Hillier and Watt estimate 1 to 3.5 million seamounts and this excludes allowance for regions higher than Latitude 60 degrees. Conservatively, active submarine volcanoes are in the tens of thousands.

“Can Earth’s rotation and tidal despinning drive plate tectonics?”

F. Riguzzi, et al, 2009

“Researchers discover new force driving Earth’s tectonic plates”

Cande & Stegman, Univ. of S. California, July 7, 2011

“On Ohmic heating in the Earth’s core II: Poloidal magnetic fields obeying Taylor’s constraint”.    Jackson, Livermore & Ierley, Aug., 2011

“Earth Expansion Evidence: a Challenge for Geology, Geophysics and Astronomy”

G. Scalera, S. Cwojdzinski, National Institute of Geophysics & Vulcanology (Italy), 4-Oct-2011 

“Spin-driven tidal pumping: Tidally driven changes in planetary spin coupled with secular interactions between planets.” R. Greenburg et al, Feb. 2013

“Tidal strain and tidal stress in the Earth’s interior” W. Kia, et al, Chinese Journal of Geophysics, November, 2013

“Tidal Stresses – How Gravity Heats Things Up”, Tim James, Dec. 2, 2013 ( author of ‘Astronomical: From Quarks to Quasars, the Science of Space at its Strangest’)

“Secular Increase in the Earth’s LOD (Length of Day) Strongly Implies that the Earth Might Be Expanding Radially on a Global Scale”   G.G. Nyambuya ,

4-March-2014

“Asian monsoons in a late Eocene greenhouse world”

A. Licht, G. Dupont-Nivet, et al, Nature, 4-August 2014

—> “But monsoons are still poorly understood, and today’s climate models disagree about how increased carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere will alter them.”

—> “Asian monsoon began ….. recently several independent teams to around 40 million years ago.” (same duration as Central Asian drought)

“Jupiter’s effect on Earth’s climate”

O. G. Sorokhtin, et al Nov., 2014

“Stanford geologists refute coal development theory” Boyce, Nelson at Stanford 2-Feb. 2016

—> Coal, oil, and gas are NOT produced from squished trees. Fischer-Tropsch (F/T) and Sabatier reactions produce oil and gas on all planets. The only true “fossil fuel” is lignite (brown coal, soft coal, thermal coal) derived from peat bogs of the Tertiary Period. It has only 25 to 35% Carbon value. 

—> Heavy crudes, petroleum tars, sub-bituminous coal, bituminous coal vent off volatiles to yield Anthracite (black coal, hard coal) which is 95% Carbon. These carbonaceous fuels all derive from F/T and Sabatier reactions. 

“One Paradox of Plate Tectonics”

Laszlo Attila Horvath, July-2016

“Resilience of the Asian atmospheric circulation shown by Paleocene dust provenance”

A. Light, G. DuPont-Nivet et al 

Nature Communications 4-August-2016

—> “Our results show that dust sources and near-surface atmospheric circulation have changed little since at least 42 Myr.” (same duration as India-Bangladesh monsoons)

—> “Neither Tibetan uplift nor the decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration since the Eocene seem to have changed the atmospheric pattern in central Asia,” Licht said. “Wind patterns are influenced by CHANGES IN THE EARTH’S ORBIT over tens or hundreds of thousands of years, but over millions of years these wind patterns are very resilient.”

“Pervasive upper mantle melting beneath the western US” 

S. Hier-Majumber, B. Tauzin, et al  Earth and Planetary Science Letters. April-2017

—> Just above Transition Region there are Carbonate melts, source of CO and CO2 by acidic attack from sulfur compounds (SO2, etc) produced in the Lower Mantle. CO and CO2 are reagents for Fischer-Tropsch and Sabatier reactions to produce methane and water. Just in the Western U.S. ALONE, centered on Yellowstone, this carbonate melt zone measures approx. 1.8 million sq. km with a thickness ranging from 25 to 70 km. Decomposing just 1 % of this Yellowstone carbonate layer would be equivalent to burning 2.3 trillion barrels of oil.

“The Very Deep Origin of the World’s Biggest Diamonds”

Gemological Institute of America, Winter 2017

—> “Culligan-like diamonds contain …. iron-rich metallic inclusions surrounded by a fluid jacket composed of methane and hydrogen.” This is a Fischer-Tropsch reaction. Iron is the catalyst.

—> Fischer-Tropsch reactions proceed as follows: CO + 3H2, under Reducing Conditions (O2 deficient) and in the presence of an Iron or Cobalt catalyst and starting at 350C, yields methane and water. Further dwell time in a geological “trap” will produce petroleum — in unimaginable quantities. Sabatier reactions perform in much the same way with with CO2 instead of CO catalysts of Vanadium and Silica. CO2 methanation.

“Spectral, spatial-statistical, and graphical evidence that gravitational interaction with the Moon assists in driving Earth’s tectonic plates Part 1”D.Zbikowski, Institute for Celestial Geodynamics,  January 2018

“A global forecast for great earthquakes and large volcanic eruptions in the next decade” D. Zbikowski, Institute for Celestial Geodynamics, Sept. 2018

—> “Movement of Earth’s rotational axis with respect to the globe generates motion of the north and south rotational poles upon the surface. Motion of the north rotational pole with respect to the net surface consists of roughly circular wobbles with a quasi-annual period. The wobbles of polar motion are formed primarily from two components-the free Chandler wobble (433 days) and the forced annual wobble (seasonal, 365 days).”

“Empirical evidence for stability of the 405 kiloyear Jupiter-Venus eccentricity cycle over hundred of millions of years.

D.V. Kent, P.E. Olsen, C. Rasmussen, et al, Rutgers University , May 7, 2018

—> “Every 405,000 years, gravitational tugs from Jupiter and Venus slightly elongate Earth’s orbit, an amazingly consistent pattern that has influenced our planet’s climate for at least 215 million years and allows scientists to more precisely date geological events like the spread of dinosaurs, according to a Rutgers-led study.”

“The Ability of Significant Tidal Stress to Initiate Plate Tectonics” by Zanazzi & Triaud, Jan. 2019

“Seismic monitoring reveals tidal stresses in the Earth’s crust”,   C. Sens-Schönfelder, et al, Physics World, 15-April-2019

“The phenomenon of subduction is incompatible with Earth’s surface geometry and geomorphology” Lazlo Attila Horvath, July 2019

“Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles and Their Role in Earth’s Climate”

Alan Buis, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, February 27, 2020

“Tidal modulation of plate motions”

D. Zaccagnino, C. Doglioni, Earth-Science Reviews, June 2020

—> “While mantle convection is fundamental ingredient of geodynamics the driving mechanism of plate tectonics remains elusive. ….. GPS measurements are now accurate enough that, on long baselines, both secular plate motions and periodic tidal displacements are visible.”

—> “Tidal oscillations also correlate with the seismic release.”

“Solar system planetary alignment triggers tides and earthquakes”

S. Awadh, 2021

“Beyond Plate Tectonics”by James Maxlow. Book published 1-Dec.-2021

“Links of planetary energetics to moon size, orbit, and planet spin: A new mechanism for plate tectonics”

A. Hofmeister, Univ. of Washington (St. Louis), January 2022

—> “Tug of sun, moon could be driving plate motions on ‘imbalanced’ Earth”

“The hot zones of global Mw ≥ 5 earthquakes and their decadal migration during 1989–2019”

Jin Chen & Hong Tang, Journal of Geosciences, March 2022

“Precession helped drive glacial cycles in the Pleistocene.”

S. Barker, A. Starr,  Geophysical Research Letters. 26-May-2022

GLOBAL-SCALE TIDAL FORCING AND PLATE TECTONICS HAVE BOTH SHAPED THE TECTONIC EVOLUTION OF EUROPA. C. E. Detelich, et al, 53rd Lunar and Planetary Science Conference (2022)

Richard F. Cronin – BChE, MBA, P.E. (retired)

Greta Thunberg Wants to Defeat “Oppressive” Capitalism


At a book signing event on 2 November,  Greta Thunberg,  joined the major global warming alarmists when she acknowledges that global warming is merely a cover for their real objective—destroying capitalism.   The  Telegraph,com. posted  “Greta Thunberg: It’s time to transform the West’s oppressive and racist capitalist system”.  The telegraph made the following comment:

“The 19-year-old Swedish activist has announced that as well as tackling her usual area of climate action and awareness-spreading, she has now thrown her weight behind defeating the West’s “oppressive” capitalist system.

Calling for a “system-wide transformation” at her book launch in London, she claimed that the world’s current “normal” – dictated by the people in power – has caused the climate breakdown.

She said: “We are never going back to normal again because ‘normal’ was already a crisis. What we refer to as normal is an extreme system built on the exploitation of people and the planet.

“It is a system defined by colonialism, imperialism, oppression and genocide by the so-called global North to accumulate wealth that still shapes our current world order.”

Wow, her family is middle to upper class. She is living in a capitalist nation that is nothing like her description of capitalism. One wonders where, in her youth, she has formed such opinions.

Michael Shellenberger made this comment:“Media Must Take Responsibility For Greta Climate Panic”  He is right. Think of the young people that have been taken in about global warming only to learn that it is capitalism that is her real enemy.

cbdakota