Category Archives: Hurricanes

World Climate Declaration. 

Proving that there isn’t a 97% scientist’s consensus, there are One thousand nine hundred and forty-four scientists, engineers, Noble prize winners and other accredited people that have signed the WORLD CLIMATE DECLARTION and their statement is “There is no climate emergency”. You are not hearing much from these 1944 experts, and you can rightly blame that on the government that provides study money almost only to people who follow the narrative that there is a climate emergency.  And when someone publishes a paper saying that there is no climate emergency, they are ignored by the media who also follow the narrative that there is a climate emergency.

The Declaration scientists on this issue is: “OUR ADVICE TO THE WORLD LEADERS IS THAT SCIENCE SHOULD STRIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM, WHILE POLITICS SHOULD FOCUS ON MINIMIZING POTENTIAL CLIMATE DAMAGE BY PRIORITIZING ADAPTATION STRATEGIES BASED ON PROVEN AND AFFORDABLE TECHNOLOGIES. The good news is that we have time to work this out. There is no evidence that we are in danger of a catastrophic event. Rational climate scientists do not see an apocalyptic ending for Earth, by CO2 emissions. 

Extreme Weather

The average citizen has heard that Green House Gases (GHG) are warming the globe.  They probably do not fully understand how GHGs are supposed to work.  But they have been convinced that Extreme Weather, as advertised by the alarmists and the media, is caused by GHGs.  Hurricanes, for one extreme weather, are believed to be increasing.   Is that true?  No, it isn’t true. Cyclones, called hurricanes and typhoons, happen all over the globe.  Typhoons are as strong as any hurricane.  As a personal experience, I got lucky to get a flight out of Tawain a day before a major typhoon that came ashore.

 The following chart is a measure of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) hurricane and typhoon strength.

Figure: Last 50-years+ of Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sums. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line/gray boxes) and the entire global (top line/blue boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total AC

.

Source Global Tropical Cyclone Activity
Dr. Ryan N. Maue

The high point of ACE occurred in the mid-nineties and has fallen off over the following years 30 years.  This refutes the concept that hurricanes and typhoon’s ACE is a function of rising global temperatures.

Alarmists and the Media

There is no emergency.    Yes, this contradicts what the media is saying, but polls show that almost nobody trusts them. The media takes the word of climate alarmists and then amplifies it. The media seems never to go back and reviews all the alarmists’ predictions that have largely failed. If they did, there is a chance that they might not file those stories. WUWT has a repository of the many predictions the alarmists have made and are shown to be wrong.  Several other looks at their bad predictions can be accessed by clicking here and here.   As people are made aware of these misses, they lose trust in the media.  So much for non-investigating reporters.  May they drive media’s believability lower.

Extreme Weather

So, what is the evidence?  Let’s start with extreme weather again.

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the UN’s scientific body studying the so called “manmade” climate change. While they do not study natural causes, some of their work is useful.   The alarmists make every weather story out to be evidence of impending doom, however, the IPCC says that they do not have any confidence that most of the weather events are caused by climate change.  Roger Pielke,jr posted “What the IPCC Actually Says About Extreme Weather”.  Pielke’s posting has a chart from the IPCC showing what they have confidence in is due to climate change and what they do not have confidence in.  I have picked several of the weather conditions that the IPCC does not have confidence are caused by climate change:

River Flood

Heavy Precipitation

Agriculture Ecology Drought

Severe Windstorms

Tropical Cyclones (aka Hurricanes and Typhoons)

Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms

Relative Sea Level

Coastal Flooding

That surely takes away most of the media narrative about “severe weather” being caused by man-made climate change.

Evidence that Alarmists are not playing square with the public.

This is perhaps their biggest whopper.

Their long-range predictions are predicated on sharp increases in global temperatures.  Everything is melting, sea levels rising, massive loss of flora and fauna, great numbers of people having to migrate north, etc.  So where do these predictions of high temperatures come from.  Why, they come from a group of programed computers.

See the chart below:

The red line is the average global temperature forecast made by the group of programed computers.

 The squiggly lines are the individual computer output (They are shooting up and ramping down wildly. Hard to take seriously.) 

The green line is actual measured temperatures by satellites.  These satellite temperature measurements have been verified by weather ballons. 

Dr John Christy notes that the programed computer’s temperature trend is +0.50C per decade. That would mean that from 2019 to 2100 the temperature would rise about 4C.  

The satellite temperature trend is +0.15C from 2019 to 2100 about +1.2C.

Who do you want to believe—actual temperature measurements or a pack of programed computers?

The 1944 scientist, etc., weigh in on these computer made predictions:

“To believe the outcome of a climate model is to believe what the model makers have put in. This is precisely the problem of today’s climate discussion to which climate models are central. Climate science has degenerated into a discussion based on beliefs, not on sound self-critical science. Should not we free ourselves from the naive belief in immature climate models”

CO2 Saturation Curve

Another reason to believe we have years of time before a transition is needed, if at all.

For those that believe atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is driving the global temperature up, you can be consoled that as more CO2 collects in the atmosphere it has a less warming effect. The chart below is somewhat dated but that doesn’t change the concept.  The current saturation of atmospheric CO2 is about 425 parts per million.

Natural Causes Creating temperature Rises

A remarkable paper has been published in The American Journal Of Economics and Sociology and the authors are Andy May and Marcel Crok. It is titled “Carbon Dioxide and Warming Climate are Not a Problem.  The paper covers a number of  issues  I liked the proof of natural cause using ocean cycles.   From that paper comes:

“Since general circulation climate models and the modern CO2 and greenhouse gas warming hypothesis were developed in the 1960s and 70s many natural climate oscillations have been discovered. These long-term climatic oscillations and the resulting “climate regime shifts” strongly suggest that natural forces, possibly driven by cyclic changes in the Sun, are causing some of the recent global warming observed since 1920, or even earlier. It is beyond the scope of this paper to detail all the natural ocean oscillations discovered and described in the past few decades, but one of the major, and most important, oscillations is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), first named by Richard Kerr in 2000 but formally described by Stephen Gray and colleagues in 2004. The AMO has a very strong climatic signal and has been around since at least 1567AD, so it clearly does not have a human cause.

The authors start with a recognized temperature anomalies chart.  The presumed start of the fossil fuel use age was 1870. The baseline was set at about -0.4 above that temperature. The anomaly is “easy to see” changes in temperature.,. On your standard thermometer, change from 1901 measured temperature to the forecast 2101 temperature. The change would not be noticeable.

The anomaly:

The AMO, which is based on North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures is plotted below. 

Figure 2. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) plotted in its raw form (top) and as a detrended index (bottom plot). The HadCRUT4 global temperature average record has also been detrended and overlain, as a gray dashed line, on the detrended AMO. Data from NOAA

“There are several key features displayed in figure 2. First, we observe that the secular trend in the AMO of 0.3°C is about 30% of the warming observed globally in the 20th century. Next, we observe that the warming period from 1980 to 2005 coincides with an upturn in the AMO index. The AMO index has been traced to 1567AD, thus it is a natural oscillation. These observations cast some doubt on the AR6 claim that all 20th century warming is due to human influence and there is no net natural impact.  The second feature we will point out in figure 2 is that the full AMO climate cycle is 60-70 years, and it matches the estimated global temperature changes in the 20th century. To make this comparison easier, the HadCRUT4 record from figure 1 is also detrended and overlain as a gray dashed line in the lower plot of figure 2. What if the so-called human-caused warming from 1976 to the present day was boosted by a natural cycle? It would mean that the IPCC calculation of the impact of human greenhouse gases was too high, just as their calculation of tropical tropospheric warming is too high, something they admit in AR6.”

 The Carbon Cycle

I find that many do not know what the carbon cycle is and the place in the cycle that man made emissions are accounted. 

The Wikipedia Chart for the “carbon** cycle” shows “man made” and natural emissions.  In the center, in red, is the fossil fuel etc. man-made emissions, 9 gigatonne of carbon in the year.  The presummed “natural” emissions are illustrated by the white arrows pointing upward, and the total is 210 gigatonne of carbon in the year. The natural carbon in circulation is very much larger than the man-made carbon.  Then 210 gigatonnes  returns to the oceans and plants. However, not all the manmade carbon stays in the atmosphere it is estimated, some returns, 3 gigatonne, to feed new plants and some, 2 gigatonne going in to the oceans. Now the theorized trouble maker remaining in the atmosphere is 4 gigatonnes.  (** Converting the carbon to carbon dioxide is to multiply by 3.3.  The chart was made several years ago. The concept is still good.)

Some may not recognize how much 425 parts per million(ppm) are.  425ppm converted to percent, is 0.0425%. 

The Earth’s atmosphere is nominally—Nitrogen= 78 %, Oxygen =21%,  Argon=1%  and  CO2= 0.0425%.  Not much of that CO2, huh.

Summary

As every year  goes by the alarmists should realize the harm they are doing to science and their profession.  I think the media should recognize the low standing  they have but  perhaps they may be to juvinile to do that.  

The science is not settled.  Their many failed predictions have demonstrates that their “science” is not proven.  Their “science” is made of fear mongering.  Every weather event that they claim to be evidence is not supported by the IPCC and demonstrated data. Be it hurricanes or Arctic Sea ice.  The predicted  global temperatures produced by  a group of computers way over shoots the actual measured temperature.  And they refuse to make corrections..    The World Climate Declaration statement is on the mark. I repeat it:

“OUR ADVICE TO THE WORLD LEADERS IS THAT SCIENCE SHOULD STRIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM, WHILE POLITICS SHOULD FOCUS ON MINIMIZING POTENTIAL CLIMATE DAMAGE BY PRIORITIZING ADAPTATION STRATEGIES BASED ON PROVEN AND AFFORDABLE TECHNOLOGIES.”

Part 3 will begin examination of electricity and wind and solar power generation.

cbdakota