Category Archives: Global Temperatures

WAS HAIYAN THE STRONGEST STORM EVER? NO Reblog from The Hockey Schtick


Haiyan was a massive storm and it caused tremendous  loss of life and property.  Never-the-less, exaggeration of the storm’s strength does not serve science.
 
This is a reblog of a posting by:

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK

Was Haiyan the Strongest Storm Ever? No

Was Haiyan the Strongest Storm Ever?By Cris LaranoWSJ.COM 11/14/13–MANILA—When supertyphoon Haiyan, locally known as Yolanda, made landfall last Friday on Guiuan, a coastal town on the central Philippine island of Samar around 410 miles south of Manila, it was described by some as the strongest storm to make landfall in the world this year, maybe ever.

So is it?Data from the national weather bureau, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, or PAGASA, showed that Typhoon Haiyan’s intensity – measured by the wind strength at its center and the speed of gusts at landfall – Haiyan ranks at number 7 among the strongest storms ever to have hit the Philippines.It could eventually prove to be the deadliest, with the death toll currently at more than 2,300 and mounting. But among the so-called supertyphoons— those with center winds in excess of 134 miles an hour — the title goes to Joan.Known locally as Sening, that storm made landfall in Virac, Catanduanes province, north of the current devastation and around 236 miles south of Manila. When it hit, Joan had center winds of 171 miles per hour and gusts of 193 miles per hour, compared to Haiyan’s 147 mph.

2020 UN Treaty: US And Europe’s Energy Use To Match The Philippines?


The target of 1 trillion tonnes of CO2 is part of the discussion underway in Poland at COP 19.  The delegates want to get a treaty in place by 2020 which all nations will sign when the Kyoto Treaty expires.  The new treaty will demand two things.  Reparations for the developing nations for the “damage” resulting from global warming that the developed nations are responsible for and an agreement by which CO2 emissions are dramatically reduced. (Click on charts to enlarge.)

Screen Shot 2013-11-14 at 12.38.03 PM

The developed nations had agreed to supply $30 billion in the period of 2010-2012.  Five nations–US, Germany, Norway, UK and Japan—gave a total of $27 billion. The desired treaty will include vast sums of money to be transferred between developed and less developed countries.  There was a study done of how much money would be needed to accomplish the objective of never letting the atmospheric CO2 exceed 1 trillion tonnes and the number was $5.7 trillion.  Not all of this is transfer money.  Much of it would go for changes to the global energy structure.

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Let’s Nominate National Geographic For The Hugo Award


The Hugo Awards are presented annually to the best science fiction. Science fiction is defined by Wiki as: a genre of fiction dealing with imaginative content such as futuristic settings, futuristic science and technology, space travel, time travel, parallel universes and extraterrestrial life. Their September 2013 issue featuring “Rising Seas” would probably qualify for the Hugo.

natgeo_statue_liberty_sea_level

The NG cover illustration of the Statue of Liberty waist deep in water resulting from sea level rise was a major, imaginative exaggeration. The statue’s waist is more than 200 feet above sea level at present. Using the actual rate of sea level rise at Battery, NY since 1850 to calculate how long it would take to match the waist water level, resulted in a figure of about 23,500 years or so. (See the calculation by clicking here.)

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Global Temperature Data Shows No Rise For 17 Years—Meets Warmist’s Criteria For Proof Of No Man-Made Forcing


A guest posting on WUWT by Werner Brozek says that global temperature has not risen for 17 years.  The 17 years are significant in anyway you think about it, but Brozek makes the point that the warmists are on record as saying that it is sufficient time to determine if there is man-made forcing of global temperatures.  Looking at the satellite global temperature measurements by the Remote Sensing System(RSS) after 204 months (17 years) the slope of temperature anomaly is zero.   Look at this chart from the WoodForTrees org. below:

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IPCC Errs When Concluding The Sun Is Not A Major Factor In Global Temperatures


While the IPCC doesn’t have an answer for why there has been no statistical increase in global temperatures for going on 17 years,  they don’t think the Sun has been a significant factor.  They  generalize that  volcanoes, deep ocean warming,  and particulate matter in the atmosphere may be the cause.

Duncan Q&A : on change of climate change : Earth and Sun

Copy of Woodcutting by TheGuardian.com by Duncan Clark

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Solar Cycle 24 September 13 Update


The International Sunspot number for September dropped to 37 from 66 in August.    The F10.7cm solar flux moved downward as well from 115 in August to 103 in September.   Both are measures of Solar activity.  Again, Solar Cycle 24 is decidedly less active than recent Solar Cycles. (Click on the charts to improve clarity.  All charts are  by “Solar Terrestrial Activity Report”).

ssncycle24=0ct13

This chart, from Solen etc, is interesting.  The black line labled Ri is the International Sunspot number. The Rnorth indicates the number of Sunspots that were counted in the Sun’s northern hemisphere and Rsouth those formed in the southern hemisphere. Rnorth plus Rsouth equal Ri.  Rnorth peaked in late 2011 at about 97 Sunspots.  Rsouth peaked at about 50  in the middle of  last year.  The smoothed number is the official count.  The smoothed number is calculated by doing a 13 month average from the numbers that lag 6 months behind the current month.  The maximum smoothed number for Cycle 24 so far is 66.9 which occurred in early 2012.  Most of the solar cycle experts believe that will be the maximum for Cycle 24.

Below is the solar polar field strength chart updated for September showing the south and north poles have both crossed the  Sun’s equator.  It is suggested that you read the discussion regarding solar polar fields by clicking on this Forecasting Solar Cycle 25 Using The Solar Polar Field Strength”.

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This chart puts Cycle 24 in perspective with Cycle 23.

ssncycles23_24-oct13

The projected Sunspot number, shown in green, is also a 13 month average but it has no six month delay built into the calculation.

cbdakota

Skeptical Scientists Effectively Challenge IPCC Climate Change Report


The IPCC has issued the 2013 report on global Climate change.  The skeptic community has effectively challenged the IPCC primary positions.   This post will provide a broad selection of those challenges for the reader to examine.   Each of the 18  entries will give you the title, a brief synopsis, and the link to that document.

The IPCC failed on two major issues.  Their failed to explain why global temperatures have not increased in the past 16 years despite a continued growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).   The second issue is that of climate sensitivity.  They did say that in the past, they had overestimated climate sensitivity but did not tell us what they now believe it to be. This posting will also cover climate model performance and should the IPCC be discontinued.

GLOBAL TEMPERATURES

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How Credible Is The IPCC Climate Reporting?


The Non-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) has issued their 2013 report “Climate Change Reconsidered II-Physical Science”.  This report, a Summary for Policy Makers (SMP), challenges the data within the IPCC’s SMP scheduled for release this month.

Let’s contrasts the two reports.  The NIPCC science is empirical data based.  The IPCC also includes empirical data but their methodology relies heavily  on computer based guesses projections,  the scientific conclusion are revised to satisfy political objectives and the IPCC is not home to scientists that want to submit studies that contradict the message that global warming is man-made.  NIPCC says this about the IPCC: “The hypothesis implicit in all IPCC writings, though rarely explicitly stated, is that dangerous global warming is resulting, or will result, from human-related greenhouse gas emissions.”   They start with a conclusion and look for studies that support the conclusion.  That’s not the the scientific method.

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It Is Better To Adapt Than Mitigate CO2 Emission-Mitigation Is 50X More Costly


Paraphrasing Hamlet, “Is it better to mitigate CO2 emissions from sources such as fossil fuels or adapt to global changes that might happen if emissions were not regulated?  Ah that’s the question.”

hamlet220px-Edwin_Booth_Hamlet_1870

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IPCC Draft Of The “Summary For Policy Makers” Leaked


The hype around the soon to be released UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policy Makers  (SPM) does make me a little ill.   The last such report was issued in 2007 and it does not seem that the assemblers of the report have learned much in that time.  It is not that they have completely ignored reality but just mostly ignored it.

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