Category Archives: Climate Models

Climate Models Epic Fail


Dr. Roy Spencer posted ‘EPIC FAIL: 73 Climate Models vs. Observations for Tropical Tropospheric Temperature” on his website.  The posting used,  “Courtesy of John Christy, a comparison between 73 CMIP5 models (archived at the KNMI Climate Explorer website) and observations for the tropical bulk tropospheric temperature (aka “MT”) since 1979.” That chart is shown below:     (Click chart for better view.)

christy1stchartCMIP5-73-models-vs-obs-20N-20S-MT

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Low Lying Pacific Islands Are Not In Danger Of Being Inundated By The Sea


The theater of doom, aka the global warming Alarmists, portray the islands of Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Federated States of Micronesia and others to soon be inundated due to rising sea level.  But a recent study by Auckland University and published in the New Scientist magazine says otherwise.  ABC News reports the following:
“The findings, published in the magazine New Scientist, were gathered by comparing changes to 27 Pacific islands over the last 20 to 60 years using historical aerial photos and satellite images.
Auckland University’s Associate Professor Paul Kench, a member of the team of scientists, says the results challenge the view that Pacific islands are sinking due to rising sea levels associated with climate change.
“Eighty per cent of the islands we’ve looked at have either remained about the same or, in fact, gotten larger,” he said.
“Some of those islands have gotten dramatically larger, by 20 or 30 per cent.
“We’ve now got evidence the physical foundations of these islands will still be there in 100 years.”
Dr Kench says the growth of the islands can keep pace with rising sea levels.”
At the end of the ABC posting Dr Kench does say:  “…. further rises in sea levels pose a significant danger to the livelihoods of people living in Tuvalu, Kirabati and the Federated States of Micronesia.”    
I have a problem squaring that with his statement: “…the growth of the islands can keep pace with rising sea level.”  It may be the often seen effort to keep himself in the good graces of the Alarmists who seem to want to use their power to punish scientists that veer too far from the approved message.  Those Alarmists are want to punish these errant folks by trying to keep them from getting any more grants or getting published in science journals.  Remember those activities were exposed in the leaked Climategate I release.
To read the rest of the ABC posting, click here.
(h/t to WattsUPWithThat)
cbdakota

Sea Surface Temperatures Will Reduce Global Temperatures For Years To Come


Joe Bastardi produced a chart which shows actual global temperature anomalies and atmospheric CO2 from the 1960s to the present time.  P. Gosselin extended the chart for the next 17 years (to 2030)  with predicted global temperature anomalies versus atmospheric CO2 .  Gosselin is showing what he believes to be the probable divergence—-further demonstrating that CO2 will not be controlling global temperature.   Gosselin’s premise is that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are currently and will continue to be,  the primary forcing agents for global temperatures. His adaptation of Bastardi’s chart is below: (Click on Chart to increase size.)

goselinchart1000What-the-warmists-are-afraid-ofThe baseline shows the cool (blue) and warm (red) cycling of the AMO and PDO. Gosselin explains what he did to extend  Bastardi’s(Climate4You) chart:

“I asked myself what is it going to look like in 10 or 15 years with the negative AMO and PDO (let’s leave out the solar activity slumber for now) continuing. So I took the Climate4You chart, cut and extended it out to the year 2030. We know CO2 is going to keep rising. Next I simply extended the negative phase of the AMO and PDO global temp out to 2030 so that it’s behaves similarly to the last negative phase for the 1950s, 60s and 70s.”

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The Alarmists Are The Real Deniers


The new normal according to the Alarmist warmers is that “cooling is warming.”  Every possible weather event, if it is unpleasant, is due to global warming. As the readers  of this post are very intelligent,  they remember that until the last 15 + years, the Alarmists have told us that global warming would mean hotter summers and winters.  That is what the alarmist’s climate models predicted but those predictions are being shown to be terribly wrong.  So what’s an alarmist to do?  They are hoping that you don’t notice that they are changing their mantra without ever acknowledging that they were wrong.
But what are the facts?   The “Updated on 23 April 2013” chart, below, shows that in the past two weeks, the US has experienced 4163 record low temperatures for this time of year.  We believe that this is weather and it is always changing.  But to the desperate Alarmists, it is the result of global warming.
Recordlows2wksUS
Chart by Ham Weather.com (click on chart to enlarge.)
A posting by David Deming  in the Washington Times, titled “The real deniers of climate change”  characterizes the data verses the alarmists contention.  He says:
“The Northern Hemisphere is experiencing unusually cold weather. Snow cover last December was the greatest since satellite monitoring began in 1966. The United Kingdom had the coldest March weather in 50 years, and there were more than a thousand record low temperatures in the United States. The Irish meteorological office reported that March “temperatures were the lowest on record nearly everywhere.” Spring snowfall in Europe was also high. In Moscow, the snow depth was the highest in 134 years of observation. In Kiev, authorities had to bring in military vehicles to clear snow from the streets.
Cold-weather extremes are a natural climatic variation, and this is exactly the point. If the world were experiencing a climate crisis owing to global warming, there shouldn’t be a single record low temperature anywhere in the world. The Associated Press has assured us, though, that this cold spell is not only consistent with a warming globe, it is actually caused by global warming. The proffered explanation is that cold weather in Europe is a result of melting sea ice in the Arctic. If this special pleading strikes you as unusually tendentious, it is all in the best tradition of explaining away ex post facto any weather event that appears to contradict the ruling paradigm.”
Deming cites numerous examples of the how wrong the Alarmists have been over the years.  The full posting is worth the reading to see what he has to say.
He concludes with this:
“With each passing year, it is becoming increasingly clear that global warming is not a scientific theory subject to empirical falsification, but a political ideology that has to be fiercely defended against any challenge. It is ironic that skeptics are called “deniers” when every fact that would tend to falsify global warming is immediately explained away by an industry of denial.”
cbdakota

GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE: SCIENCE AND POLITICS


A referred paper in Quaestiones Geographicae* written by Cliff Ollier titled “Global Warming and Climate Change: Science and Politics “ maintains the idea that global warming will bring on devastation is a dangerous belief.  Ollier challenges the belief that CO2 is a major force in defining the globe’s climate.   He also takes on the corollary issues such as sea level, the Sun and climate.  The abstract to the paper follows:
The threat of dangerous climate change from anthropogenic global warming has decreased.
• Global temperature rose from 1975 to 1998, but since then has leveled off.
• Sea level is now rising at about 1.5mm per year based on tide gauges, and satellite data suggests it may even be falling.
o Coral islands once allegedly threatened by drowning have actually increased in area.
o Ice caps cannot possibly slide into the sea (the alarmist model) because they occupy kilometres-deep basins extending below sea level.
o Deep ice cores show a succession of annual layers of snow accumulation back to 760,000 years and in all that time never melted, despite times when the temperature was higher than it is today.
o Sea ice shows no change in 30 years in the Arctic.
• Emphasis on the greenhouse effect stresses radiation and usually leads to neglect of important factors like convection.
o Water is the main greenhouse gas.
o The CO2 in the ocean and the atmosphere are in equilibrium: if we could remove CO2 from the atmosphere the ocean would give out more to restore the balance. Increasing CO2 might make the ocean less alkaline but never acid.
• The sun is now seen as the major control of climate, but not through greenhouse gases.
o There is a very good correlation of sunspots and climate.
o Solar cycles provide a basis for prediction. Solar Cycle 24 has started and we can expect serious cooling.
• Many think that political decisions about climate are based on scientific predictions but what politicians get are projections based on computer models.
o The UN’s main adviser, the IPCC, uses adjusted data for the input, their models and codes remain secret, and they do not accept responsibility for their projections.
The issues listed in the Abstract are explored in some detail in the full paper that you can access by clicking here.
cbdakota

Reuters Posting Rationalizes Climate Model Failures


Reuters’  March 16 posting “ Climate Scientist struggle to explain warming slowdown,” is looked at by some as a significant refutation of the catastrophic man-made global warming (CAGW) theory.   The theme of the posting, IMHO,  is that the slowdown is puzzling but these brilliant alarmist scientists will straighten out this “glich”.  Then all will be  made right with the world —–which by the way is going to get very, very hot pretty soon according to our climate models.
Here is how the posting opens up:
“Scientists are struggling to explain a slowdown in climate change that has exposed gaps in their understanding and defies a rise in global greenhouse gas emissions.
Often focused on century-long trends, most climate models failed to predict that the temperature rise would slow, starting around 2000. Scientists are now intent on figuring out the causes and determining whether the respite will be brief or a more lasting phenomenon.
Getting this right is essential for the short and long-term planning of governments and businesses ranging from energy to construction, from agriculture to insurance. Many scientists say they expect a revival of warming in coming years.”

“Greedy Lying Bastards” Fails To Draw An Audience


“Greedy Lying Bastards” the film, was on the list of top box office attractions  for one weekend.  It grossed $45,000 the weekend of March 8-10 and its place was #45 out of 50. With that  kind of gross, it is no surprise that it did not make it back since then. The film is said to have cost $1,500,000 to produce.  For comparison, that weekend’s top grossing movie was “OZ the Great and Powerful”, which pulled in $79,100,000.

The critics at the movie review site, Rotten Tomatoes,  gave it 73 out of 100 which is a very favorable rating.   A typical review was that by John Hartl for the Seattle Times in which he said:

“ The title says it all in “Greedy Lying Bastards,” a blistering attack on politicians, propagandists, dissemblers and other climate-change deniers.No longer taking the relatively polite approach of Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth,” the filmmakers set out to focus on the celebrities who have been most successful in using the media to encourage a sense of doubt in a skeptical public.”

The reviewers held nothing back as most of them always love the liberal theme.

I suppose their next production will be the “Those Dirty Rotten Bastards That Used The New Black Panthers To Prevent Entry To The Theater To See Our Epic Production Greedy Lying Bastards”.  They have to blame someone for their failure.

cbdakota

Wealthy Green NGOs Versus The Heartland Institute


Willie Soon and David Legates made a presentation in Delaware explaining why they believed  man-made global warming is overblown and illustrated their position by showing the data that belies the alarmist computerized predictions of  CO2-caused  global catastrophe.  How did the major Delaware newspaper cover this? Poorly, because they are in the tank for man-made global warming.  How can you know that,  you are wondering.  The paper’s reporter felt it necessary to make anything that Soon and Legates said suspect by using  “Some environmental groups have pointed to Soon’s and Legates’ ties to organizations financed by fossil fuel and deeply con­servative interests, in­cluding the George C. Marshall and Heartland institutes.”   This is the usual innuendo that greens and their allies in the media use.    They have a dearth of factual data so they make personal attacks.

Actually this piece of untruth was pretty tame compared to that by Juliet  Eilperin of the Washington Post where she embellished the story by putting in the amounts of funding she believed had been given to Marshall and Heartland by Exxon and the Koch Brothers.  But more on this later.

I suppose that you know there are many issue oriented organizations –Non-Government Organizations (NGO)– out there trying to persuade people to their  point of view.  A very large number of them have the mission of persuading you that global warming is a crisis and that unless we stop using fossil fuels, we are dooming the future generations to terrible catastrophes.  Where do they get their money?  Before we try to shed some light on  that  question, lets look at the relative size of the green NGOs  and the George C Marshall and Heartland Institutes.

A partial list* of Green NGOs is tabled below.  The following data are from Charity Navigator  which rates a NGOs using the information supplied by that NGO. The data is for  2012 or the last fiscal year of these organizations. “Program expenses” result from the direct effort to accomplish their mission.  They also have administrative and fund raising expenses which I have not tabled.

Green NGOs                                 Program Exp $K    Assets$K       CEO pay$K

Nature Conservancy                       672,757                      5,180,559           493

World Wildlife Fund                       139,971                         271,695           496

Environmental Defense                   70,755                          137,034          426

Nat. Resc. Defen. Council               76,931                          197,413            381

Sierra Club Foundation                   46,672                            82,622          157

World Resource Inst.                       34,831                            59,902         376

Union of Concerned Scientists     18,029                            29,879           240

Strats for Global Envir                        5,641                               4,945         355

Ctr for American Progress             31,390                             36,626         250

Greenpeace US  **                                 9,601                               9,407         153

subtotal                                               1,106,390

* As a means of approximating the  numbers of the NGOs that are global warming advocates,  we note that more than 700 NGOs  registered to attended COP 17 held in Durban,  South Africa.  See here, here and here.  (h/t to Willis Eschenbach)  Those that attended are just a fraction of the total of all the green NGOs.

**Greenpeace International’s 2011 budget was € 241 million, their program expenditures were €160 million  and it leads 27 regional offices, one of which is Greenpeace US.

Now lets look at what the Charity Navigator has to say about  the  non-green NGOs, George C Marshall and Heartland Institutions and see how they match up with the green NGOs:

George C Marshall                                      342                                   154           24

Heartland                                                   4,008                                  -157         154

subtotal                                                       4,350

The difference is vast.  Can you imagine if you are a green being frightened of these “pipsqueaks” so much that you have to take every opportunity to tell lies about their funding.  That is $1,106,578,000 for programing  versus the $4,350,000 for those fearsome little giants or stated another way, the expenditures for the little giants are 0.4% of the green NGOs.  Note that Heartland is experiencing a deficit.

Earlier I said we would pick up on the  Juliet Eilperin story. She said in a posting that: “The Heartland Institute received more than $7.3 million from Exxon Mobil between 1998 and 2010, and nearly $14.4 million between 1986 and 2010 from foundations affiliated with Charles G. Koch and David H. Koch.”  She had issued a retraction after Joe Bast of Heartland provided the real numbers saying: “ExxonMobil over the course of a decade gave less than a tenth of the amount reported, never amounting to even 5 percent of our annual receipts. The reported level of support from the Kochs was even more egregiously wrong: Except for a gift of $25,000 last year for our work on health care reform, the Kochs hadn’t donated a dime since 1998.”  Also it should be noted that ExxonMobil have not made any contributions to Heartland for the last 7 years.  Why do reporters keep using this innuendo?  Could it be that it is too good to give up even if it is not true?  Or do they not do any research, but rather rely on Alarmist to tell them what to say.

By the way, the Washington Post have closed down their environment desk and have reassign Eilperin to other work.  Did you know that her husband (Andrew Light) is a senior fellow on climate/energy issues at the Center for American Progress (see NGO chart).  Did the Washington Post make this move concerned that there might just be a conflict on interest as she never made her husband’s employment known in her opinion pieces?

Lets get ExxonMobil out of the discussion.   From the ExxonMobil 2011 Corporate Citizenship Report we learn that they are no longer funding anyone that “questions the science of climate change” and that they provided funding to the following advocacy groups and research in 2011:

MIT, Stanford (this is a $100million grant over two years), Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Research Economics and Science, Battelle Pacific Northwestern Laboratory, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, The Brookings Institution, American Enterprise Institute, Council on Foreign Relations, Resources for the Future, and Center for Strategic and International Studies.

I think that this decision by ExxonMobil was ill advised.  However, fair is fair, so I guess all you who have been saying that a skeptic that took ExxonMobil  money was bought and paid for,  will say that about any Green NGO that takes ExxonMobil  or other fuel supplier’s money.   Can I plan on that?

While taking about the sources of “tainted” money, why is it the Greens go after the Koch Brothers but don’t mention George Soros?    My guess is that because Soros is big source of funding and support for them,  he is off limits.

While the Kochs believe that CO2 is not a major factor causing global warming, it is probably their political positions that most irritate those that deride the Kochs.  The Kochs do support conservative candidates and conservative causes.  But Soros supports political parties too. In fact according to Wiki, Soros spent over thirty million dollars in a failed effort to stop George W Bush from getting a second term.   There is  irony  here in that he is said to have been a major force behind the McCain and Feingold Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002. Yet he now is heavily into 527 organizations which can and do spend large amounts of money in political campaigns.  He always supports Democrats.  He contributes heavily to liberal causes according to studies.  He puts money into the Tides Foundations which mainly supports liberal causes and the man-made global warming theory.

There are other things that are not so acceptable.  Soros said in 2006, according to Wiki,””the main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States”.  In 2010 he said “Today China has not only a more vigorous economy, but actually a better functioning government than the United States”. He seems to agree with the NY Time economist that a dictator would be a better form of government. Simply stated, I do not believe his political views are shared by the majority of the US population.  See here for additional citations of his philosophy.

This posting shows that the Heartland and Marshall innuendo is bogus.  To be fair,  when warmers speak the media should saying something like this— “The non-radical environmental groups have pointed to So and So ties to organizations financed by fossil fuel and deeply liberal interests, in­cluding the Worldwide Wildlife Fund and Greenpeace.”  My preference is that media people don’t use these ad hominum attacks because as I have shown, the attacks are neither fair nor truthful.  The use of these attacks only serve to show the media’s ignorance bias.

And we have not touched upon the Government funding which is even larger and perhaps even more imbalanced in the warmers favor.

And we have not  shown how the NGOs operate to influence legislation, and the popular opinion.

More to come.

cbdakota

The UK Gets It, The US Doesn’t–Teaching AGW In Schools


In Great Britain, it is being recommended that the advocacy of man-made global warming be cut from the national curriculum for children 13 and under (see here).  In the US,  teaching of AGW has been recommended for all grades and in every science class. The following  is an overview of this plan and those that have developed it according to a Bloomberg.com posting on 4 March 2013:
 “The Next Generation Science Standards were developed by the National Research Council, the National Science Teachers Association, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the nonprofit Achieve and more than two dozen states. They recommend that educators teach the evidence for man-made climate change starting as early as elementary school and incorporate it into all science classes, ranging from earth science to chemistry. By eighth grade, students should understand that “human activities, such as the release of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, are major factors in the current rise in Earth’s mean surface temperature (global warming),” the standards say.”

Climategate III–220,247 New E-Mails Have Been Released.


Who ever it is that broke into the files at East Anglia University back in 2009, has just released, to selected bloggers, a password to access some 220,247 new e-mails. The person that got these files says it is time to release the remainder of the ClimateGate documents.  He says the task is too big  for him to handle.  He is not saying that these emails will have as big an impact as the first release back in 2009 did but he said there may be some big stories in this lot.

Not much is out in the public yet but you can bet that many folks will be working their way through these e-mails.  So, to keep up to speed on them you might want to go to WattsUpWithThat:   or

Tom Nelson  http://tomnelson.blogspot.com

Climate Depot  http://www.climatedepot.com

Junk Science  http://junkscience.com/2013/03/13/climategate-3-0-220247-e-mails/

The Reference Frame  http://motls.blogspot.com/2013/03/climategate-2013-is-here-foia.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+LuboMotlsReferenceFrame+%28Lubos+Motl%27s+reference+frame%29

cbdakota