Category Archives: Climate Models

IPCC Draft Of The “Summary For Policy Makers” Leaked

Posted on September 16, 2013 | 1 comment

The hype around the soon to be released UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policy Makers  (SPM) does make me a little ill.   The last such report was issued in 2007 and it does not seem that the assemblers of the report have learned much in that time.  It is not that they have completely ignored reality but just mostly ignored it.

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Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, CO2, Environment, Global Temperatures, Government Regulations, Government Revenues, Green Jobs, Interglacial periods, IPCC, United Nations

Understanding Colorado Flooding

Posted on September 15, 2013 | Leave a comment

This is a reblog.

Can not improve on this one. Once again the “extreme” weather brigade are ill-informed or purposely deceptive. Your guess.
cbdakota

Tony Heller's avatarReal Climate Science

The Poudre River in Fort Collins drains more than 500 square miles of mountains and empties through a narrow canyon.

ScreenHunter_573 Sep. 14 10.30

The Big Thompson River in Loveland drains more than 500 square miles of mountains and empties through a narrow canyon.

ScreenHunter_572 Sep. 14 10.30

The St. Vrain River, Lefthand Creek and Boulder Creek drain more than 500 square miles of mountains and empty through narrow canyons.

ScreenHunter_571 Sep. 14 10.29

Upslope winds force humid air from the plains up into the mountains. The air expands, cools and drops below its dew point. Rain falls and floods occur.

In 1976, the Big Thompson drainage received 14 inches of rain in four hours and produced one of America’s most deadly floods. This week’s rains have been nowhere near that intense.

In 1997, Spring Creek in Fort Collins received 10 inches of rain in four hours, and produced a flood with killed five people. Again, that rainfall was much more intense than this…

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Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, Storms/hurricanes, Tornados

There Is A Difference Between “Warm” And “Warming”

Posted on August 20, 2013 | Leave a comment

The National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its State of the Climate in 2012: Highlights on August 2. The report says:

Many of the events that made 2012 such an interesting year are part of the long-term trends we see in a changing and varying climate—carbon levels are climbing, sea levels are rising, Arctic sea ice is melting, and our planet as a whole is becoming a warmer place,” said acting NOAA Administrator Kathryn D. Sullivan, Ph.D.   

The report itemizes those things from which they have developed the theme that the planet is becoming a warmer place. The first on the list was this one:

Warm temperature trends continue near Earth’s surface: Four major independent datasets show 2012 was among the 10 warmest years on record, ranking either 8th or 9th, depending upon the dataset used. The United States and Argentina had their warmest year on record.  

Now you are forgiven if you interpret that item as saying that the Earth is getting warmer, and indeed most of the media jumped to that conclusion.  But what are the facts?  Look at the HadCrut* temperature chart for the period from 1998 to 2012 that NOAA made this claim:

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Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, CO2, CRU Temps, Global Temperatures, Media Bias, Sea Ice, Sea Level

July Satellite Global Temperature Update

Posted on August 3, 2013 | Leave a comment

The UAH satellite program for measuring global temperatures reports the July anomaly was +0.17°C which is a drop of 0.12°C from last month’s report.  Dr Spencer points out that this reading is from two new satellites.  He says that the old version would have read a smaller positive temperature anomaly but he believes that is due to an uncorrected diurnal drift in satellite NOAA-18.  That satellite’s reading are not in the current version.

UAH_LT_1979_thru_July_2013_v5.6

cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, Climate Models, Global Temperatures, IPCC, UAH Satellite Temps

Joe Bastardi Says Obama’s Energy Policy Based On Easily Disproven Assumptions.

Posted on July 24, 2013 | 3 comments

Joe Bastardi, Chief Forecaster at WeatherBell Analytics LLC says that the EPA has based the Administration’s energy policy on three easily disproven assumptions.  In Bastardi’s posting “Evidence That Demands A Verdict” he list the following:

There are three lines of evidence the EPA uses to back their environmental policies.

  1. Greenhouse Gas Trapping Hot Spot Theory.
  2. The so-called unusual rise in GAST (Globally Averaged Surface Temperatures).
  3. Assumed validity of climate models, used for policy analysis purposes. (See, for example, SOUTHEASTERN LEGAL FOUNDATION, INC., ET AL., Petitioners, v. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY, ET AL. Nos. 12-1268, 12-1269, 12-1272.)

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Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, CO2, Environment, EPA, fossil fuels, Global Temperatures, IPCC, NASA/GISS

Finally–Prominent Global Warming Scientist Expressing Doubts About Climate Models’ Forecasts

Posted on July 11, 2013 | 1 comment

Man-made global warming forecast of high temperatures and high sea levels, for example, that indicate global catastrophes to come are the product of computer models. That the projections of the future by these models do not match reality has not escaped the skeptics.  Up until now, this fact has been ignored by most of the warmers.  However, a posting in “Nature, International Weekly Journal of Science” published 10 July 2013 quotes leaders of the man-made global warming theory casting doubts on the products of these models. Gavin Schmidt, Kevin Trenberth, Doug Smith, Stefan Rahmstorf, and Noel Keenlyside are expressing doubts.  If you actually follow the science and not the press releases, you know that these scientists are solidly in the warmer category.

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Posted in AGW, cap and trade, carbon tax, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, CO2, Environment, fossil fuels, Global Temperatures, IPCC, Sea Ice

Climate Scientists Know Big Scarry Words

Posted on June 21, 2013 | Leave a comment

A conference of national forecasters was held this week in Exeter to discuss the future of the British climate following the spate of harsher than expected winters, and unusually wet summer since 2007.  Their forecasts of these events missed the mark almost entirely.

Sean Thomas posted on the Telegraph.Co.UK interviews he had with the Met (UK) Office in England.  He says that although he could not attend the meeting,”….. I had direct access to the meteorologists concerned, as I was in Exeter in spirit form, and I managed to speak to the principal actors”.   We hear by the grapevine that the principal actors are denying that they said what Thomas relates in his posting.   I leave it up to you to determine if the following are true and factual transcriptions.

First, I asked Stephen Belcher, the head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, whether the recent extended winter was related to global warming. Shaking his famous “ghost stick”, and fingering his trademark necklace of sharks’ teeth and mammoth bones, the loin-clothed Belcher blew smoke into a conch, and replied,

“Here come de heap big warmy. Bigtime warmy warmy. Is big big hot. Plenty big warm burny hot. Hot! Hot hot! But now not hot. Not hot now. De hot come go, come go. Now Is Coldy Coldy. Is ice. Hot den cold. Frreeeezy ice til hot again. Den de rain. It faaaalllll. Make pasty.”

Thomas moved on to Professor Rowan Sutton, Climate Director of NCAS at the University of Reading.

When pressed on the particular outlook for the British Isles. Professor Sutton shook his head, moaned eerily unto the heavens, and stuffed his fingers into the entrails of a recently disembowelled chicken, bought fresh from Waitrose in Teignmouth.

Hurling the still-beating heart of the chicken into a shallow copper salver, Professor Sutton inhaled the aroma of burning incense, then told the Telegraph: “The seven towers of Agamemnon tremble. Much is the discord in the latitude of Gemini. When, when cry the sirens of doom and love. Speckly showers on Tuesday.”

Well it is obvious the Met forecasts are being managed carefully.

The interviews somehow got garbled somewhere in the spirit world but, you have to admit Thomas can write a pretty funny story loaded with irony.

cbdakota

h/t to WUWT

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Posted in AGW, Climate Models, CO2, CRU Temps, Environment, Global Temperatures

“Ensemble Of Climate Models Is Statistically Meaningless”

Posted on June 19, 2013 | 1 comment

A new posting on WUWT titled  “The “ensemble” of models is completely meaningless, statistically” by Robert G. Brown, Duke University Physics Department is getting a lot of favorable  attention.  He says that if you know statistics, you would recognize that the 73 CMIP models grouped together has no meaning.(See my posting here for more info on CMIP models.)

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Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, Environment, Global Temperatures, IPCC, United Nations

Global Temperature Declines Since 2005

Posted on June 14, 2013 | Leave a comment

Christopher Monckton adds a guest posting at WattsUpWithThat which takes on Dr Santer’s requirement of a period of 17 years with no significant global warming to disprove the man-made global warming theory.  Using the HadCru monthly mean surface temperature anomalies, Monckton’s first chart shows that a period of 17 years and 4 months has been realized with no statistically significant global warming. (Click on charts to get better view.)

17+yearsofnoglobalwarmingclip_image002_thumb2

Dr. Santer, as you probably know is strong supporter of the man-made global warming theory.   Skeptics anticipate that the warmers will move the goal posts  again.  Perhaps the new “proof years” will be revised to 20 or more. What ever it takes to keep their dream alive (sarc).

Monckton also provided a chart that shows that over the last 100 months the global anomaly is negative.    His chart includes the climate model predicted temperature anomaly.  Monckton says: “The variance between prediction and observation over the 100 months from January 2005 to April 2013 is thus equivalent to 3.2 Cº/century.”

globaltempdeclines-100monthsclip_image004_thumb3

He knows that this period is too short to draw any real conclusions but it is interesting that HadCru data indicates a decline in global temperatures.

cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, CO2, Global Temperatures, IPCC

Chinese Academy Of Science Adopt Heartland’s “Climate Change Reconsidered”

Posted on June 13, 2013 | Leave a comment

The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) books, Climate Change Reconsidered and Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report published by the Heartland Institute has been translated from English to Chinese by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS).  These books “..present a sweeping rebuttal of the findings of the United Nations’ controversial Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose reports were widely cited as the basis for taking action to stop or slow the advance of climate change”.

According to the Heartland Institute:

“The Chinese Academy of Sciences is the world’s largest academy of sciences, employing some 50,000 people and hosting more than 350 international conferences a year. Membership in the Academy represents the highest level of national honor for Chinese scientists. The Nature Publishing Index in May ranked the Chinese Academy of Sciences No. 12 on its list of the “Global Top 100” scientific institutions – ahead of the University of Oxford (No. 14), Yale University (No. 16), and the California Institute of Technology (No. 25).

The first 856-page volume of Climate Change Reconsidered, published in 2009, and its follow-up, the 430-page Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report,were produced by a team of scientists originally convened by Dr. S. Fred Singer under the name of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC).

chinaccrcoverclimatechangereconsidered

                  Climate Change Reconsidered is translated into Chinese

 

Jim Lakely, director of communications at the Heartland Institute told Breitbart  News:

“Translating and publishing nearly 1,300 pages of peer-reviewed scientific literature from English to Chinese is no small task, and indicative of how important CAS considers Climate Change Reconsidered to the global climate change debate. That CAS has invited the authors and editors of Climate Change Reconsidered to a conference this Saturday in Beijing to introduce the studies is yet another indicator of how important it is to get this information out to a wider audience.”

Heartland Institute President Joseph Bast added:

“A December 2012 UN meeting designed to provide climate change regulations ended in failure after China refused to sign a global climate change treaty. China was joined by the United States, as well as Canada, India, Japan, Russia, and Brazil. “Opposition to a new climate treaty is justified based upon the real science presented in Climate Change Reconsidered.”

Hopefully,  the mainstream media will take note.

cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, cap and trade, carbon tax, China, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, CO2, Environment, IPCC, Kyoto, Renewable Energy, Sea Ice, Sea Level