Category Archives: Climate Alarmism

Dr Judith Curry Is No Longer A Member Of the Warmer Tribe.


Dr Judith Curry believes that CO2 is warming the Earth. But she thinks that the forecasts of temperature rise by the IPCC and other warmers are vastly curryUnknownoverstated. Thus she is labeled a lukewarmer. Because most skeptics are in some sense lukewarmers, she is readily accepted by the Skeptics. But warmers do not tolerate those who don’t strictly follow their religious like beliefs that allow no deviation from their catastrophic views.   She says she has been tossed out of the warmer tribe of which she was once a welcome member.

Her credentials are solid gold. Wikipedia cites her publications as follows:

Curry is the co-author of Thermodynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans (1999), and co-editor of Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences (2002). Curry has published over 130 scientific peer reviewed papers. Among her awards is the Henry G. Houghton Research Award from the American Meteorological Society in 1992.

She (Curry) wrote: “I have a total of 12,000 citations of my publications (since my first publication in 1983).

The new.spectator.com.uk posted “I was tossed out of the tribe’: climate scientist Judith Curry interviewed”. This is how it happened:

“Curry’s independence has cost her dear. She began to be reviled after the 2009 ‘Climategate’ scandal, when leaked emails revealed that some scientists were fighting to suppress sceptical views. ‘I started saying that scientists should be more accountable, and I began to engage with sceptic bloggers. I thought that would calm the waters. Instead I was tossed out of the tribe. There’s no way I would have done this if I hadn’t been a tenured professor, fairly near the end of my career. If I were seeking a new job in the US academy, I’d be pretty much unemployable. I can still publish in the peer-reviewed journals. But there’s no way I could get a government research grant to do the research I want to do. Since then, I’ve stopped judging my career by these metrics. I’m doing what I do to stand up for science and to do the right thing.’”

Curry says that the COP 21 will be driven by the warmer’s belief that global temperature rise is a direct function of the atmospheric CO2 concentration.   She says there is no such relationship:

“This debate will be conducted on the basis that there is a known, mechanistic relationship between the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and how world average temperatures will rise. Any such projection is meaningless, unless it accounts for natural variability and gives a value for ‘climate sensitivity’ —i.e., how much hotter the world will get if the level of CO2 doubles. Until 2007, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gave a ‘best estimate’ of 3°C. But in its latest, 2013 report, the IPCC abandoned this, because the uncertainties are so great. Its ‘likely’ range is now vast — 1.5°C to 4.5°C.

Curry says that reaching 2°C is likely much farther away than the warmers think because the recent research shows a climate sensitivity of around 2°C rise per doubling of the CO2 in the atmosphere versus the 3°C rise.  See Recent “Research Papers Show That IPCC Climate Sensitivity Is Too High”

 Curry also believes the warmers need to look at natural sources that cause the climate to change. She says:

“Meanwhile, the obsessive focus on CO2 as the driver of climate change means other research on natural climate variability is being neglected. For example, solar experts believe we could be heading towards a ‘grand solar minimum’ — a reduction in solar output (and, ergo, a period of global cooling) similar to that which once saw ice fairs on the Thames. ‘The work to establish the solar-climate connection is lagging.’”

Curry closes her interview by the David Rose of the New Spectator UK with this:

She remains optimistic that science will recover its equilibrium, and that the quasi-McCarthyite tide will recede: ‘I think that by 2030, temperatures will not have increased all that much. Maybe then there will be the funding to do the kind of research on natural variability that we need, to get the climate community motivated to look at things like the solar-climate connection.’ She even hopes that rational argument will find a place in the UN: ‘Maybe, too, there will be a closer interaction between the scientists, the economists and policymakers. Wouldn’t that be great?’

cbdakota

(I previously post the Spectator interview on my Facebook sans my comments.)

 

 

COP 21 President Obama Wants Money To Pay Reparations


What will come from the COP21?   An agreement? Perhaps,  but what will it amount to?   President Obama wants to commit the US to a combination of gwbiggestthreatCartoon54reduced CO2 emissions and billions of dollars for reparation (wealth redistribution plan) payments. The US Congress has said they wont approve any money expenditure for reparations unless they have a treaty to vote on. A treaty would require approval of 67 members of the Senate voting in favor of the treaty, so this probably means there wont be any money. Congress has signaled both the President and the rest of the world that will not be spending any money. Obama and his crew know a treaty would not make it through the Senate so they have been trying to come up with some other scheme that will not require the Senate’s approval. Obama has promised to make a $3billion down payment to the UN’s Green Climate Fund at the COP21 meeting.

He and the Congressional Democrats could try to force Congress to give the money to the UN by threatening a Government Shutdown. This has worked in the past, but I doubt that global warming is a winning issue with the voters. The most recent poll by Fox News shows that only 3% believe that global warming is something they need to worry about. This result is consistent would other news organizations polling.

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COP21: Renewables Will Not Be Able To Replace Fossil Fuels


A posting on WUWT by Willis Eschenbach titled “Thirty-Eight Years Of Subsidiesdemonstrates the failure of solar and wind energy to become  viable replacements for fossil fuels. Noting this failure is important because the COP 21 envisions reducing fossil fuel to only 20% of the globe’s energy supply by 2050. In some quarters, there are demands for completely eliminating fossil fuel use by that date. Could this really happen?

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COP 21 Pope Francis’ Encyclical Is Of Little Help For The Poor


The UN Conference of Parties annual Climate Action Meeting Scheduled to begin on 30 November in Paris has the objective of preventing global temperature from rising as a direct result of carbon dioxide ((CO2) emissions. One would think the science supporting the contention that CO2 would be center stage, but it wont. Instead, the real drivers of this movement are politics and culture.

Perhaps Pope Francis’ recent Encyclical “Laudado Si” would be a good way to begin. While the Encyclical covered a range of topics, the part that dealt with the supposed threat of global warming drew the most attention. Despite the Pope having repeatedly said that discussion with all parties is necessary to find the proper solutions not a single skeptical scientist was allowed to participate. His advisors, with or without the Pope’s knowledge, made a conscious decision to exclude skeptical scientists. The Pope’s advisors however, did included in the discussion,  atheists, anti-capitalists, population limiting advocates, scientists with works so poor the even their fellow warmers have reputiated them and others that believe skeptics should be imprisoned.

The “books were cooked” so to speak. The conclusions, foregone.

UNpollutionbyramirez

 

 

 

 

Cartoon by Ramirez Investors.com

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COP 21 “…make-or-break Paris conference on climate change”


Beginning 30 November through 11 December, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) will hold the 21st Conference of Parties (COP 21) in COP21imagesParis. As usual this one like the preceding annual COP meeting is being described as the last chance to save planet Earth from the ravages of carbon dioxide (CO2).

COP attendees from all over the world will attempt, once again, to agree on the reduction of the amount of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere and settle on compensation payments to the 3rd world countries that have emitted little CO2. Each of the 146 nations that emit 90% of the global CO2 emissions are being asked to submit the amount of CO2 emissions they will reduce by 2030 based away from the amount emitted in 2005 by that nation. They believe this is necessary to keep global temperature growth to two degrees Celsius.

The compensation side is contentious as those getting the compensation want more than those expected to provide it are willing to part with. For example, India says they will reduce their emissions by 33 to 35% but they need $2.5 trillion to accomplish that goal. Even China, the world’s largest emitter of CO2 is one of the nations expecting compensation.   What a deal—-they have recently achieved an agreement with President Obama that lets them continue increasing their emissions until 2030 at which time their emissions should be three times those of the US.

Of course the concept of emission reductions and compensation that the COP wishes to accomplish ignores the data that shows that this is probably not necessary.   CO2 is the life blood of the plant world. Without it there would be no plant life and that means of the end of humankind. Studies show that the increased CO2 in the atmosphere have had a beneficial effect on food production world-wide.   Further the CO2 effect on the global temperatures appears to be secondary to natural forces.  And fossil fuel use by the underpowered nations is a better answer to their needs than sending compensation to some dictator who will just pocket it and the people will receive no benefit.  Subsequent postings will enlarge on these observations.

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Social Cost Of Carbon–The Administration’s New Way To Justify Regulations


The Obama administration has instituted new criteria for supporting their climate change regulations. It is called the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC).   The eventual cost of an increase in atmospheric CO2 is calculated for each regulation. corncropUnknownThe calculation is based upon their model’s forecasts of temperature, sea level, storms, droughts, etc. All the bad things they believe will happen if the rise of atmospheric CO2 is not stopped. You can be certain that each regulation could prevent millions, perhaps billions, of dollars damage according to their SCC calculation.

The SCC calculations use several discount rates that most rational economist would say were not germane. SSC presumes that the next generations will not have more knowledge and money to adapt to what ever actually happens. For example at the turn of the last century, do you think the forecasters would have come up with airplanes, nuclear energy, penicillin, satellites, for several example of things that have made enormous changes? And the many people that would be lifted out of poverty and provided a much-improved life?

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Duke’s Dr. Brown Believes Temperature Records Are Being Deliberately Tampered To Support Man-Made Global Warming Theory


I no longer consider it remotely possible to accept the null hypothesis that the climate record has not been tampered with to increase the warming of the present and cooling of the past and thereby exaggerate warming into a deliberate better fit with the theory instead of letting the data speak for itself and hence be of some use to check the theory.”

Those words are by Dr Robert J Brown of Duke University in a WUWT posting titled “Is There Evidence of Frantic Researchers “Adjusting” Unsuitable Data? (Now Includes July Data)”.

In late May or early June, USHCN announced that the “Pause” was broken as they had found that the sea surface temperatures (sst) were being underreported. They said temperature measuring buoys that they placed in the ocean needed correction and they added 0.12C to those measurements. Never mind that these buoys were equipped with the best temperature measuring devices. But alas they were not giving the answer they needed. So they used ocean going vessels’ water intake measuring devices to correct the buoys. See “NOAA Alleges New Temperature Data Refutes The “Pause But Does It?
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92% Of US Surface Temperatures Are Estimated.


Temperature readings from the various temperature-monitoring stations in the USA are sent to the data compilers at the U.S. Historical Climatological Network (USHCN). This data can be called the”raw “data. It has yet to be process through the 6 steps used to “adjust” the raw data. The adjustment process is:

  1. Survey for obvious outliers and the radically incorrect. Delete or correct as necessary.
  2. Time of observation adjustment.
  3. New measuring device adjustment .
  4. Homogenization adjustment to account for failure to record all the data from given monitoring stations and random stations movement.
  5. Lack of monitoring stations in remote areas, for example, where it is necessary to fill in calculated estimates of what the reading would be if there were devices.
  6. Adjustment for the “heat island” effect.

I have tried to summarize the process in the above. For a more detailed description of the process used by USHCN click here. The adjusted raw data is considered the US temperature.

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“How Reliable Are The Climate Models” (Reblogged from WUWT)


I am reblogging a posting from WUWT by Mike Jonas titled: How reliable are the climate models?” The first chart in the WUWT posting illustrated the climate model unreliability.  The fact that climate models are not reliable has been covered on my blog, Climate Change Sanity, and many others. Often we talk about the fact that water vapor is the major “greenhouse” gas and not carbon dioxide (C02). Yet this issue is not the only reason these models have gone astray.   The WUWT blog discusses a number of other physical properties that have an effect on the “coupled nonlinear chaotic system” that is our atmosphere, that the models do not attempt to model.

The models are the basis for all the things that are forecast to happen —sea level rise, weather chaos, etc –  with their forecasts of very high global temperatures cause by CO2. Do we have a problem? Maybe but the climate models are unable to tell us anything.

cbdakota

WATTS UP WITH THAT

How reliable are the climate models?
Guest Blogger / 3 days ago September 17, 2015
Guest essay by Mike Jonas

michaels-102-ipcc-models-vs-reality

There are dozens of climate models. They have been run many times. The great majority of model runs, from the high-profile UK Met Office’s Barbecue Summer to Roy Spencer’s Epic Fail analysis of the tropical troposphere, have produced global temperature forecasts that later turned out to be too high. Why?

The answer is, mathematically speaking, very simple.

The fourth IPCC report [para 9.1.3] says : “Results from forward calculations are used for formal detection and attribution analyses. In such studies, a climate model is used to calculate response patterns (‘fingerprints’) for individual forcings or sets of forcings, which are then combined linearly to provide the best fit to the observations.”

To a mathematician that is a massive warning bell. You simply cannot do that. [To be more precise, because obviously they did actually do it, you cannot do that and retain any credibility]. Let me explain :

 

CLICK HERE TO READ THE REST OF THIS WUWT POSTING

“Recycling In Recent Years Has Become A Money-Sucking Enterprise.”


The Washington Post (WP) posted “American recycling is stalling, and the big dcrecycling61434652573blue bin is one reason why.” The posting was made June 20 and has been sitting in my “things to write about” box for a while. Yesterday’s report on Fox News about Seattle fining residents that put food, recyclable or yard waste in their garbage reminded me of that article.

So what is the reason for the recycling stalling? According to the article, recycling is no longer profitable.   The District of Columbia (DC) Council made a $1.2milion payment to Waste Management last year apparently to keep them recycling DC wastes. In 2011 DC made a profit of $389,000, but the situation has changed.

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