Category Archives: IPCC

Svensmark Theory—Cosmic Rays Contribute To Lower Global Temperatures


The previous posting closed with: Low Sunspot numbers and low F 10.7 indicate low solar activity.  How this activity translates to cooler weather is not clear.  The correlation between low activity and cooler weather has been know for several hundred year (or perhaps longer— recently read that the Chinese recorded Sunspot numbers many century’s ago and reported this correlation.)

One possible explanation is the Svensmark theory. This theory begins with high energy galactic cosmic rays (GCR) entering the Earth’s atmosphere where they collide with atmospheric molecules of oxygen. The collisions shatter the molecules and the resulting particles become nuclei for cloud droplets from which clouds are formed. Clouds reflect a significant amount of the Sun’s radiation back into space.  The weaker the Sun’s magnetic field (low solar activity),  the more GCR enter the atmosphere.  The more clouds, the more cooling.   This is opposed to the situation where the Sun’s activity is high, fewer GCR result in fewer clouds.

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Solar Cycle 24 July Update


NASA predicts a solar magnetic field reversal in about 3 to 4 months.  When that happens, Solar Cycle 24 will have reached what is known as the cycle maximum.  After that the Sunspot numbers will decrease with time. There is a possibility that a  short period of none at all  will happen before Cycle 25 kicks in. NASA has produced a video that discusses the mechanism and the implications of the solar magnetic field reversal.  The video can be viewed by clicking here.

The July charts for Sunspots and F10.7 cm Radio flux are shown below.

sunspotjuly13

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Study Forecasts Sea Level Rise That Is 10X Actual Rise In Last Century


A recent study “Rapid Accumulation of Committed Sea-level Rise from Global Warming” asserts that some 1700 US cities and towns will be below sea level by 2100. The study was authored by Benjamin H Strauss for the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.  The study is behind a paywall.  Dr Don J Easterbrook has reviewed the claim and he has spelled out his thinking in a Climate Depot posting. (Those views will constitute the body of this posting.)  Easterbrook says:

The accelerated rise is based on postulated accelerated warming but there has been no warming in the past 15 years and, in fact, the climate has cooled during that time. So no climatic warming means no accelerated sea level rise as postulated by Strauss…the huge rise of sea level rates proposed by Strauss are absurd and that the maximum sea level rise by 2100 will be less than one foot.”

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July Satellite Global Temperature Update


The UAH satellite program for measuring global temperatures reports the July anomaly was +0.17°C which is a drop of 0.12°C from last month’s report.  Dr Spencer points out that this reading is from two new satellites.  He says that the old version would have read a smaller positive temperature anomaly but he believes that is due to an uncorrected diurnal drift in satellite NOAA-18.  That satellite’s reading are not in the current version.

UAH_LT_1979_thru_July_2013_v5.6

cbdakota

Administration’s Agencies And Radical Greens Collude On Policy


The EPA has devised a system to write policy that favors the radical green NGOs.  The EPA is able to, in effect, legislate.  This is done by using the courts to issue Consent Decrees outlining policy “agreements.   Once issued, the agreements set out in the Consent Decrees are very difficult to get changed.

Back in the 1960tys, activist groups began what is now called “reform litigation”.  Initially these litigated cases were to pursue the litigant’s idea of needed prison reforms.  But with time, reform litigation spread and it is getting major use by the EPA and radical greens to shape environmental policy.  Here is how it works  according to Bob Beuprez’s posting “How the EPA connives with Greens on Policy”:

How have these overtly political groups obtained such access to policy decisions that have the power to destroy industries and eliminate jobs? The answer lies in the “sue and settle” legal technique.

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Joe Bastardi Says Obama’s Energy Policy Based On Easily Disproven Assumptions.


Joe Bastardi, Chief Forecaster at WeatherBell Analytics LLC says that the EPA has based the Administration’s energy policy on three easily disproven assumptions.  In Bastardi’s posting “Evidence That Demands A Verdict” he list the following:

There are three lines of evidence the EPA uses to back their environmental policies.

  1. Greenhouse Gas Trapping Hot Spot Theory.
  2. The so-called unusual rise in GAST (Globally Averaged Surface Temperatures).
  3. Assumed validity of climate models, used for policy analysis purposes. (See, for example, SOUTHEASTERN LEGAL FOUNDATION, INC., ET AL., Petitioners, v. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY, ET AL. Nos. 12-1268, 12-1269, 12-1272.)

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June 13 Global Temperature Anomaly Update


The UAH satellite June 2013 global temperature anomaly increased 0.2°C over the May anomaly.  The Northern Hemisphere anomaly was up as would be expected as summer is underway and it is similar to the anomaly 12 months ago.   The big jump was in the Southern Hemisphere that seems odd in that it is winter there.   Remember,  what is significant is the long term trend.

satellitetempsjune13UAH_LT_1979_thru_June_2013_v5.6

YR     MON  GLOBAL  NH        SH     TROPICS

2012    1      -0.145   -0.088  -0.203    -0.245

2012    2      -0.140   -0.016  -0.263   -0.326

2012    3     +0.033  +0.064 +0.002   -0.238

2012    4     +0.230  +0.346 +0.114   -0.251

2012    5     +0.178  +0.338  +0.018  -0.102

2012    6     +0.244  +0.378  +0.111  -0.016

2012    7     +0.149  +0.263  +0.035  +0.146

2012    8     +0.210  +0.195  +0.225  +0.069

2012    9    +0.369   +0.376  +0.361  +0.174

2012   10 +0.367   +0.326   +0.409  +0.155

2012   11 +0.305   +0.319   +0.292  +0.209

012     12   +0.229   +0.153   +0.305  +0.199

2013    1   +0.497   +0.512     +0.481   +0.387

2013    2    +0.203  +0.372   +0.034  +0.195

2013    3   +0.200   +0.333   +0.068  +0.243

2013    4   +0.114    +0.128    +0.101    +0.165

2013    5   +0.083   +0.180    -0.015   +0.112

2013    6   +0.298   +0.337   +0.259  +0.221

Satellite Temperature Anomalies, °C 

cbdakota

Finally–Prominent Global Warming Scientist Expressing Doubts About Climate Models’ Forecasts


Man-made global warming forecast of high temperatures and high sea levels, for example, that indicate global catastrophes to come are the product of computer models. That the projections of the future by these models do not match reality has not escaped the skeptics.  Up until now, this fact has been ignored by most of the warmers.  However, a posting in “Nature, International Weekly Journal of Science” published 10 July 2013 quotes leaders of the man-made global warming theory casting doubts on the products of these models. Gavin Schmidt, Kevin Trenberth, Doug Smith, Stefan Rahmstorf, and Noel Keenlyside are expressing doubts.  If you actually follow the science and not the press releases, you know that these scientists are solidly in the warmer category.

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European Renewables Bubble Is Collapsing


The European nations have led the world in the installation of wind and solar, the renewable technologies.  But now the high subsidies that were imposed to make these renewables look attractive are becoming intolerable.

Peter Glover has posted “The ‘Great Renewables Scam’ unravels” on thecommentator.com.   Glover writes:

Energy insiders have long known that the notion of ‘renewable energy’ is a romantic proposition – and an economic bust. But it is amazing what the lure of guaranteed ‘few strings attached’ government subsidies can achieve. Even the Big Oil companies bought into the renewables revolution, albeit mostly for PR reasons. Like Shell, however, many quickly abandoned their fledgling renewable arms. Post-2008, they knew, the subsidy regimes could not last. Neither was the public buying into the new PR message.

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“Ensemble Of Climate Models Is Statistically Meaningless”


A new posting on WUWT titled  “The “ensemble” of models is completely meaningless, statistically” by Robert G. Brown, Duke University Physics Department is getting a lot of favorable  attention.  He says that if you know statistics, you would recognize that the 73 CMIP models grouped together has no meaning.(See my posting here for more info on CMIP models.)

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