Category Archives: IPCC

Will The Supreme Court Correct Their Mistake Of Giving The EPA Regulatory Power?


The US Supreme Court is going to review whether or not the EPA has the authority to regulate “greenhouse gas” emissions from stationary sources such as power plants and oil refineries.  The Court will hear arguments and will probably provide a ruling by June of next year.  Unfortunately, the Court rejected the request to also review their 2007 Massachusetts v EPA decision that gave the EPA the authority to regulate greenhouse emissions from mobile sources, e.g., autos if they found that greenhouse gases were a public health concern.   The Liberals on the Court were joined in 2007,  by Justice Kennedy,  giving the EPA the licenses to regulate by a 5 to 4 vote.

obama-failed-solar-companies

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Even the IPCC AR5 Wont Connect Global Climate Change to “Extreme Weather”


The IPCC recently completed its 5th Assessment Report (AR5). The preceding Report, AR4 was issued in 2007.  The tasks given to the group that develops these reports are to “assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information concerning climate change, its potential effects and options for adaptation and mitigation.”  As you can see from the tasking, these reports are not designed to determine if the warming results from natural causes but rather it has as a given that the warming results from man’s activities.  AR5 seems to carry almost biblical importance to the Warmers.

extreme-weather

Skeptics are exposing the many significant errors that are in AR5.   Yet there is one topic where AR5 and the skeptics are in agreement.  That area is “Extreme Weather”.  Because global temperatures have not gone up for going on 17 years, the Alarmists had to come up with something new to keep the public frightened.  So they began peddling Extreme Weather.

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IPCC Errs When Concluding The Sun Is Not A Major Factor In Global Temperatures


While the IPCC doesn’t have an answer for why there has been no statistical increase in global temperatures for going on 17 years,  they don’t think the Sun has been a significant factor.  They  generalize that  volcanoes, deep ocean warming,  and particulate matter in the atmosphere may be the cause.

Duncan Q&A : on change of climate change : Earth and Sun

Copy of Woodcutting by TheGuardian.com by Duncan Clark

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Solar Cycle 24 September 13 Update


The International Sunspot number for September dropped to 37 from 66 in August.    The F10.7cm solar flux moved downward as well from 115 in August to 103 in September.   Both are measures of Solar activity.  Again, Solar Cycle 24 is decidedly less active than recent Solar Cycles. (Click on the charts to improve clarity.  All charts are  by “Solar Terrestrial Activity Report”).

ssncycle24=0ct13

This chart, from Solen etc, is interesting.  The black line labled Ri is the International Sunspot number. The Rnorth indicates the number of Sunspots that were counted in the Sun’s northern hemisphere and Rsouth those formed in the southern hemisphere. Rnorth plus Rsouth equal Ri.  Rnorth peaked in late 2011 at about 97 Sunspots.  Rsouth peaked at about 50  in the middle of  last year.  The smoothed number is the official count.  The smoothed number is calculated by doing a 13 month average from the numbers that lag 6 months behind the current month.  The maximum smoothed number for Cycle 24 so far is 66.9 which occurred in early 2012.  Most of the solar cycle experts believe that will be the maximum for Cycle 24.

Below is the solar polar field strength chart updated for September showing the south and north poles have both crossed the  Sun’s equator.  It is suggested that you read the discussion regarding solar polar fields by clicking on this Forecasting Solar Cycle 25 Using The Solar Polar Field Strength”.

solarpolarfields-oct13

This chart puts Cycle 24 in perspective with Cycle 23.

ssncycles23_24-oct13

The projected Sunspot number, shown in green, is also a 13 month average but it has no six month delay built into the calculation.

cbdakota

Skeptical Scientists Effectively Challenge IPCC Climate Change Report


The IPCC has issued the 2013 report on global Climate change.  The skeptic community has effectively challenged the IPCC primary positions.   This post will provide a broad selection of those challenges for the reader to examine.   Each of the 18  entries will give you the title, a brief synopsis, and the link to that document.

The IPCC failed on two major issues.  Their failed to explain why global temperatures have not increased in the past 16 years despite a continued growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).   The second issue is that of climate sensitivity.  They did say that in the past, they had overestimated climate sensitivity but did not tell us what they now believe it to be. This posting will also cover climate model performance and should the IPCC be discontinued.

GLOBAL TEMPERATURES

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How Credible Is The IPCC Climate Reporting?


The Non-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) has issued their 2013 report “Climate Change Reconsidered II-Physical Science”.  This report, a Summary for Policy Makers (SMP), challenges the data within the IPCC’s SMP scheduled for release this month.

Let’s contrasts the two reports.  The NIPCC science is empirical data based.  The IPCC also includes empirical data but their methodology relies heavily  on computer based guesses projections,  the scientific conclusion are revised to satisfy political objectives and the IPCC is not home to scientists that want to submit studies that contradict the message that global warming is man-made.  NIPCC says this about the IPCC: “The hypothesis implicit in all IPCC writings, though rarely explicitly stated, is that dangerous global warming is resulting, or will result, from human-related greenhouse gas emissions.”   They start with a conclusion and look for studies that support the conclusion.  That’s not the the scientific method.

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It Is Better To Adapt Than Mitigate CO2 Emission-Mitigation Is 50X More Costly


Paraphrasing Hamlet, “Is it better to mitigate CO2 emissions from sources such as fossil fuels or adapt to global changes that might happen if emissions were not regulated?  Ah that’s the question.”

hamlet220px-Edwin_Booth_Hamlet_1870

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Political Class Does Not Care If Climate Science Is Wrong


If you are a skeptic you may think that you are winning the science battle with the warmers.  You probably have always thought that in the end you would win that battle and that would settle things.  You were half right, you are winning the science battle but you have not yet deterred the politicians.   The science has never mattered much to them.  The warmer’s programs to combat  “global warming are really the only things that matter to them.  Whether it is Cap & Trade, Carbon tax, or some other scheme, they are for it.  They tell you they are doing this for your own good.  But in fact most of them want greater control of your life and they can do it through taxes and regulations that are at the heart of these schemes.

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IPCC Draft Of The “Summary For Policy Makers” Leaked


The hype around the soon to be released UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policy Makers  (SPM) does make me a little ill.   The last such report was issued in 2007 and it does not seem that the assemblers of the report have learned much in that time.  It is not that they have completely ignored reality but just mostly ignored it.

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Forecasting Solar Cycle 25 Using The Solar Polar Field Strength


Forecasting the strength of Solar Cycle 25 will not  be easy.  The expert’s track record for their Cycle 24 predictions show how hard it is.   For example, Doctor David Hathaway is quoted in December 2006 that cycle 24 would “be one of the most intense since record keeping began 400 years ago.”   He forecast 160+/- 25 as the peak Smoothed International Sunspot Number (SISN). His prediction as charted in 2006 below:

hathaway2billsunspot_med

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