Category Archives: Climate Models

February 2013 Global Temperature Update


The global atmospheric temperature anomaly dropped by about 0.33° C to  +.18 degrees above from 30-year (1981-2010) average.

atmospherictempfeb2013UAH_LT_1979_thru_Feb_2013_v5.5

Dr Spencer also reports that the sea surface temperature anomaly for February was
-0.01 º C, relative to the 2003-2006 average.
 seasurfacetempfeb2013RSS_mwSST_2002_thru_Feb_2013
Additional discussion of these anomaly temperature charts can be access by clicking here.
cbdakota

Collapsing Consensus–Next Targets Are The Professional Societies


In my previous posting I wondered when the “consensus” scientists would begin to openly call into question the theory that CO2 is the primary forcing agent driving global warming. The longer the “pause” in global warming continues, (the IPCC head, Dr. Pachuri said the pause is now at 17 years), the harder it must be to steadfastly hold to the CO2 theory. Skeptics largely agree that CO2 is a forcing agent but have maintained that natural forces were probably the dominate force. In my opinion, the Sun is most likely the major forcing agent even though the exact mechanism has yet to be proven.

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Dr Evans: “Climate Change in 12 Minutes-The Skeptic’s Case”


Dr David Evans has made a youtube video titled “Climate Change in 12 Minutes-The Skeptic’s Case”.  The focus of this video is the “positive feedback” claimed by the greens which they claim amplifies the effect of CO2.   This positive feedback is used in all the green’s computer models.  These computer outputs are incompatible with the actual data. Air and ocean temperatures as well has the tropical hotspots do not agree with computer output. In fact, a negative feedback appears to exist that reduces, rather than amplify, the effect of CO2.
See Evan’s video by clicking here.
cbdakota

Extreme Weather A Non-Starter When Facts Are Examined


If you are alarmed by the forecasts of dreadful things that are going to happen because of global warming, there is good news. The good news is that since the beginning of the alarmist’s 25+ year campaign to frighten you, nearly all their forecasts have failed to come true. The media would do their readers and themselves a real service if they actually reviewed and published the global warming alarmist’s forecasts versus actual outcomes for temperature, hurricanes, sea level, etc..  But they don’t, so you get a new batch of dire forecasts from the same people who have yet to demonstrate they can make a forecast that ultimately matches reality.

The Warmers Are Punishing The Poor


A recent posting on WUWT by Willis Eschenbach titled “We Have Met The 1%, and He Is Us” illustrates that the  people that get hurt the most by energy rationing are the poor.   Eschenbach’s experiences as a sailor got him to many parts of the globe where living is a daily struggle and the high cost of energy, if it is even available, doom those people to suffering and short lifespans. I recommend that you read his posting which can be accessed by clicking here.
I recently ran across a story that helps illustrate how the zeal of the warmers is punishing the poor. The West Bengal government wants to provide electricity to 1076 Sundarbans villages. The government believes there will be a 10 to 20 fold increase in electricity demand between 2010 and 2020. However the environmental groups oppose this action because the grid will supply coal based electricity.

Global Temperatures 12th Highest In The Last 34 Years


Satellite temperature measurements began 34 years ago.  The satellites are the most comprehensive measurements of global temperatures and largely can avoid the errors so pervasive in the land-based measuring devices.
Accordingly, they are the gold standard of atmospheric global temperature recorders.
For 34 years these satellites have been managed by the University of Alabama at Huntsville.  Principals in this effort have been Dr.s Roy Spencer and John Christy.   They report that the year 2012 was the 9th warmest globally in the 34 years of satellite measurement.  The temperature anomaly for 2012 was +0.161.  The warmest year in the 34 years was 1998 followed, in order, by 2002,2003, 2005, 2006, 2007,2009,and 2010.  From that list, one can see that the trend for the global temperatures is downward.

Comments On COP18 Doha, Qatar Meeting—Kyoto II And Reparations


 The 18th Conference of Parties (COP) met in Doha, Qatar from 26 November to 7 December. Initially the purpose of these COPs was to monitor the Kyoto treaty which was designed to control greenhouse gas emissions. The people who set up this treaty hoped that it would give global governance of world’s energy to the UN bureaucracy.  It has failed to do that. The Kyoto Treaty  expires on 31 December 2012.  Undeterred, the attendees replaced it with  Kyoto II. The response to Kyoto II by the COP 18 attendees was underwhelming.  And this new version has even less chance of accomplishing their desired result.The COP meetings have a new raison d’etre that alleges that the developed nations have damaged or will damage the undeveloped nations and thus owe them reparations. The idea is that developed nations send money to the UN who then decide what to do with it. Surpassed only by a few despots such as Duvalier and Amin, UN bureaucrats have mastered the art of siphoning money out of similar programs into their own Swiss bank accounts.  The “OIL FOR FOOD”  program is an example.  Do you want give your money to the UN?  I don’t. Continue reading

What Does The Leaked IPCC AR5 Reveal?


The second draft of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was leaked to the internet on 13 December. It is generating a lot of discussion.  So far the main talking point seems be that the leaked report says that the Sun is as great a forcing agent as is CO2.  I scanned the “Summary For Policy Makers” (SPM) from the leaked draft.  I don’t see that view being reflected there. One of the 13 lead author of Chapter 7  “Clouds and Aerosols” was interviewed by Australia’s ABC TV network and he said Chapter 7 does not say the Sun is a major factor.  Chapter 8 “Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcings”  also discusses this issue.  While I think that the Sun is a major forcing agent, much more powerful than CO2, I have little doubt that the final report will not say that.  Especially the SPM.  The full report is large and quite technical.  Most people do not read it and you can bet that no politician or journalist anywhere in the world will read the full report. So the SPM, in the past, ignored any scientific conclusion that did not fit the narrative of catastrophic man-made global warm. It will again.

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Sandy Proof of Global Warming?–Part 2


Recently a Washington Post article by Melinda Henneberger stated that  “Sandy puts climate change back in the conversation”.  To bolster the author’s case, she relied upon politicians among whom were Dan Quayle and NY mayor Bloomberg for “expert” analysis. The only scientist quoted was the widely discredited James Hansen who offered evidence in the form of heat waves in Russia and drought in Texas and Oklahoma.  The “bible” of the warmers are the reports issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  However the IPCC says that man’s influence on extreme weather is uncertain and may not be known for another 30 years.  About American Central Plains droughts, the IPCC says that droughts there have decreased in recent decades.  Although not a hurricane, Sandy was a serious storm abetted by high tides. But the author is obviously not a student of history or she would have known that many hurricanes have hit the East Coast over the years that were much more violent than Sandy.  For example, the category 3 “New England Hurricane” of September 1938 made landfall on Long Island.  In the years 1954 and1955, three category 3 and two category 4 hurricanes hit the East Coast of the US.

Over the years there were many other major Atlantic  hurricanes . (See listing in Wiki by clicking here.)  Most of which predate the current time where warmist claim that hurricanes are more frequent and deadly due to rising amounts of atmospheric CO2.

cbdakota

That 97% Solution, Again–Reboot


There are many—mostly non-scientists—that like to tell the public that 97% of the world’s climate scientists believe in the catastrophic man-made global warming theory.  If you disagree with their theory,  you are said to be one of the 3% who are “deniers”.  They also tell you that the “deniers” are heavily funded by the fossil fuel industry which makes them not only wrong on science but morally wrong for carrying the water for those evil oil and gas companies. In fact Oil and Gas provide more funds for alternative energy studies than funds provided to the skeptics. Most  skeptics are not funded at all. The winners of the funding wars are the believers of the man-made global warming theory. They get the large cash awards from Governments and Environmental organizations worldwide as long as they produce work that supports the man-made global warming theory. 
 
I set out to post the facts to demonstrate that the 97% claim is bogus.  I ran across the following National Post posting “That 97% Solution, Again”  by Larry Solomon and concluded I could not come up with anything that would surpass Solomon’s arguments on this topic.  So here is what he wrote:
 
That 97% Solution,Again.
Source:  National Post (Canada)
by Larry Solomon
 
How do we know there’s a scientific consensus on climate change? Pundits and the press tell us so. And how do the pundits and the press know? Until recently, they typically pointed to the number 2500 – that’s the number of scientists associated with the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Those 2500, the pundits and the press believed, had endorsed the IPCC position.
To their embarrassment, most of the pundits and press discovered that they were mistaken – those 2500 scientists hadn’t endorsed the IPCC’s conclusions, they had merely reviewed some part or other of the IPCC’s mammoth studies. To add to their embarrassment, many of those reviewers from within the IPCC establishment actually disagreed with the IPCC’s conclusions, sometimes vehemently.
The upshot? The punditry looked for and recently found an alternate number to tout — “97% of the world’s climate scientists” accept the consensus, articles in the Washington Post and elsewhere have begun to claim.
This number will prove a new embarrassment to the pundits and press who use it. The number stems from a 2009 online survey of 10,257 earth scientists, conducted by two researchers at the University of Illinois. The survey results must have deeply disappointed the researchers – in the end, they chose to highlight the views of a subgroup of just 77 scientists, 75 of whom thought humans contributed to climate change.  The ratio 75/77 produces the 97% figure that pundits now tout.
The two researchers started by altogether excluding from their survey the thousands of scientists most likely to think that the Sun, or planetary movements, might have something to do with climate on Earth – out were the solar scientists, space scientists, cosmologists, physicists, meteorologists and astronomers. That left the 10,257 scientists in disciplines like geology, oceanography, paleontology, and geochemistry that were somehow deemed more worthy of being included in the consensus. The two researchers also decided that scientific accomplishment should not be a factor in who could answer – those surveyed were determined by their place of employment (an academic or a governmental institution). Neither was academic qualification a factor – about 1,000 of those surveyed did not have a PhD, some didn’t even have a master’s diploma.
To encourage a high participation among these remaining disciplines, the two researchers decided on a quickie survey that would take less than two minutes to complete, and would be done online, saving the respondents the hassle of mailing a reply. Nevertheless, most didn’t consider the quickie survey worthy of response –just 3146, or 30.7%, answered the two questions on the survey:
1. When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?
2. Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?
The questions were actually non-questions. From my discussions with literally hundreds of skeptical scientists over the past few years, I know of none who claims that the planet hasn’t warmed since the 1700s, and almost none who think that humans haven’t contributed in some way to the recent warming – quite apart from carbon dioxide emissions, few would doubt that the creation of cities and the clearing of forests for agricultural lands have affected the climate. When pressed for a figure, global warming skeptics might say that human are responsible for 10% or 15% of the warming; some skeptics place the upper bound of man’s contribution at 35%. The skeptics only deny that humans played a dominant role in Earth’s warming.
Surprisingly, just 90% of those who responded to the first question believed that temperatures had risen – I would have expected a figure closer to 100%, since Earth was in the Little Ice Age in the centuries immediately preceding 1800. But perhaps some of the responders interpreted the question to include the past 1000 years, when Earth was in the Medieval Warm Period, generally thought to be warmer than today.
As for the second question, 82% of the earth scientists replied that that human activity had significantly contributed to the warming. Here the vagueness of the question comes into play. Since skeptics believe that human activity been a contributing factor, their answer would have turned on whether they consider a 10% or 15% or 35% increase to be a significant contributing factor. Some would, some wouldn’t.
In any case, the two researchers must have feared that an 82% figure would fall short of a convincing consensus – almost one in five wasn’t blaming humans for global warming — so they looked for subsets that would yield a higher percentage.  They found it – almost — in those whose recent published peer-reviewed research fell primarily in the climate change field. But the percentage still fell short of the researchers’ ideal. So they made another cut, allowing only the research conducted by those earth scientists who identified themselves as climate scientists.
Once all these cuts were made, 75 out of 77 scientists of unknown qualifications were left endorsing the global warming orthodoxy. The two researchers were then satisfied with their findings. Are you?
LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com
cbdakota