Penn and Livingston, in their September 2010 IAU publication “Long-Term Evolution Of Sunspot Magnetic Fields” predicted that Solar Cycle 24 would peak at an International Sunspot number of 66 and Solar Cycle 25 at 7!!
Considering that NASA believes that the peak for Cycle 24 will be 67, their prediction looks pretty good. So would you bet against their Cycle 25 prediction of 7?
Posted in AGW, Ap index, Solar Activity, Solar Cycle 24, Solar Cycle 25, Solar Flux, Sun, sun and climate, Sunspots
The International Sunspot number for September dropped to 37 from 66 in August. The F10.7cm solar flux moved downward as well from 115 in August to 103 in September. Both are measures of Solar activity. Again, Solar Cycle 24 is decidedly less active than recent Solar Cycles. (Click on the charts to improve clarity. All charts are by “Solar Terrestrial Activity Report”).
This chart, from Solen etc, is interesting. The black line labled Ri is the International Sunspot number. The Rnorth indicates the number of Sunspots that were counted in the Sun’s northern hemisphere and Rsouth those formed in the southern hemisphere. Rnorth plus Rsouth equal Ri. Rnorth peaked in late 2011 at about 97 Sunspots. Rsouth peaked at about 50 in the middle of last year. The smoothed number is the official count. The smoothed number is calculated by doing a 13 month average from the numbers that lag 6 months behind the current month. The maximum smoothed number for Cycle 24 so far is 66.9 which occurred in early 2012. Most of the solar cycle experts believe that will be the maximum for Cycle 24.
Below is the solar polar field strength chart updated for September showing the south and north poles have both crossed the Sun’s equator. It is suggested that you read the discussion regarding solar polar fields by clicking on this “Forecasting Solar Cycle 25 Using The Solar Polar Field Strength”.
This chart puts Cycle 24 in perspective with Cycle 23.
The projected Sunspot number, shown in green, is also a 13 month average but it has no six month delay built into the calculation.
cbdakota
Posted in AGW, Ap index, Global Temperatures, IPCC, Solar Cycle 24, Solar Cycle 25, Solar Flux, Sun, Sunspots
Forecasting the strength of Solar Cycle 25 will not be easy. The expert’s track record for their Cycle 24 predictions show how hard it is. For example, Doctor David Hathaway is quoted in December 2006 that cycle 24 would “be one of the most intense since record keeping began 400 years ago.” He forecast 160+/- 25 as the peak Smoothed International Sunspot Number (SISN). His prediction as charted in 2006 below:
Posted in AGW, CO2, Global Temperatures, IPCC, Solar Cycle 24, Solar Cycle 25, Sun, sun and climate, Sunspots
Solar Cycle 24’s Sunspot number bounced up a little as did the F10.7cm radio flux. However, Cycle 24 is still on track to be the least active Cycle since the first part of the last century. The Sun’s North pole appears to have firmly switched its polarity but the South Pole may be months away from switching its polarity. A cycle’s “maximum” is usually called when both poles have done the swap.
The August Sunspot and the F10.7cm radio flux are shown below (Click on Charts to enhance view):
Posted in AGW, Global Temperatures, Solar Activity, Solar Cycle 24, Solar Flux, Sun, Sunspots
The previous posting closed with: Low Sunspot numbers and low F 10.7 indicate low solar activity. How this activity translates to cooler weather is not clear. The correlation between low activity and cooler weather has been know for several hundred year (or perhaps longer— recently read that the Chinese recorded Sunspot numbers many century’s ago and reported this correlation.)
One possible explanation is the Svensmark theory. This theory begins with high energy galactic cosmic rays (GCR) entering the Earth’s atmosphere where they collide with atmospheric molecules of oxygen. The collisions shatter the molecules and the resulting particles become nuclei for cloud droplets from which clouds are formed. Clouds reflect a significant amount of the Sun’s radiation back into space. The weaker the Sun’s magnetic field (low solar activity), the more GCR enter the atmosphere. The more clouds, the more cooling. This is opposed to the situation where the Sun’s activity is high, fewer GCR result in fewer clouds.
Posted in AGW, Ap index, CO2, fossil fuels, Global Temperatures, IPCC, Solar Cycle 24, Solar Cycle 25, Solar Flux, Sun, sun and climate, Sunspots
NASA predicts a solar magnetic field reversal in about 3 to 4 months. When that happens, Solar Cycle 24 will have reached what is known as the cycle maximum. After that the Sunspot numbers will decrease with time. There is a possibility that a short period of none at all will happen before Cycle 25 kicks in. NASA has produced a video that discusses the mechanism and the implications of the solar magnetic field reversal. The video can be viewed by clicking here.
The July charts for Sunspots and F10.7 cm Radio flux are shown below.
Posted in AGW, Ap index, Environment, Global Temperatures, IPCC, Solar Activity, Solar Cycle 24, Solar Cycle 25, Sun, sun and climate, Sunspots
Solar Cycle 24 activity was low in June. Sunspots took a sizable drop from about 77 in May to 52 in June. Solar flux dropped as well. (Click on charts to enhance clarity.)
The experts believe that Cycle 24 will match Cycle 14. NASA is predicting Cycle 24 Sunspot peak at 67 whereas Cycle 14’s peak was 64. Cycle 14 began February, 1902 and ended August, 1913. Temperatures during that time were much colder than the average since that time. My March 8, 2013 posting has some interesting statistics to make comparisons of Cycle 24 and other Solar Cycles. There is a plot of temperature anomalies from 1880 to 2010 that you can compare to Solar Cycle size. You can access that data by clicking here.
cbdakota
Chart curtsey of Solen.com
Posted in AGW, Ap index, Solar Activity, Solar Cycle 24, Solar Flux, Sun, sun and climate, Sunspots
Posted in AGW, Environment, Global Temperatures, Solar Activity, Solar Cycle 24, Solar Flux, Sun, sun and climate, Sunspots
Climate Change Sanity 