Category Archives: AGW

Bogus Mercury Scare Used To Shutdown Coal Electricity Generating Plants


Before he was elected, President Obama said that he would bankrupt anyone who built a new coal-base power generation plant.  He planed to do this by enacting Cap and Trade legislation that would target coal-based facilities. Because coal-based plants emit more CO2 than do natural gas-based plant per kW of electricity, the CO2 tax levied on coal-based facilities would make them uneconomical to build and operate.  However a bill for his signature could not get out of Congress.  (A little discussion of the regulation of CO2 later.) The administration refocused their efforts to put coal out of business by issuing new regulations that reduced the amount of mercury and other air pollutants in coal plant emissions (CO2 was not included).   Mercury is clearly the poster child for these new regulations and that is obvious by the many press releases and stories in the media. According to the EPA, children exposed to the reduced mercury levels will be healthier and have higher IQs.

How solid is the contention that it will make our children healthier?   A posting by Willie Soon and Paul Driessen, titled “US: The myth of killer mercury” shows the EPA’s actions to not be based on good science:

According to the Centers for Disease Control’s National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, which actively monitors mercury exposure, blood mercury counts for US women and children decreased steadily 1999-2008, placing today’s counts well below the already excessively “safe” level established by EPA.

A 17-year evaluation of mercury risk to babies and children, by the Seychelles Children Development Study, found “no measurable cognitive or behavioral effects” in children who eat five to twelve servings of ocean fish every week, far more than most Americans do.

The World Health Organization and US Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry assessed these findings in setting mercury risk standards that are 2-3 times less restrictive than EPA’s. Even under WHO and ATSDR guidelines, no American children are even remotely at risk from mercury.

EPA ignored these findings. Instead, the agency based its “safe” mercury criteria on a study of Faroe Islanders, whose diet is far removed from our own. They eat few fruits and vegetables, but do feast on pilot whale meat and blubber that is high in mercury and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) – but very low in selenium. The study is clearly irrelevant to this rulemaking.

Finally, EPA maintains that mercury deposition, its conversion to methylmercury, and MeHg accumulation in fish and humans is a simple process that can be controlled by curtailing emissions from US power plants. That is not correct. In fact, mercury emissions (from all sources) and raw mercury levels in fresh or ocean waters are only part of the story.

Complex, nonlinear interactions among at least 50 natural variables control the biological and chemical processes that govern elemental mercury conversion to methylmercury and MeHg accumulation in fish. Those variables, and selenium levels in fish tissue, are beyond anyone’s ability to control.

So clearly the EPA has grossly exaggerated the threat of mercury.

Another question that needs to be asked is how much mercury is released each year and how much of that comes from US coal-based plants.

Mercury Emissions – Natural and Man-Made

Source Emission Quantity, Mg/Year % of Total
Natural 5207 69
Manmade 2320 31
            TOTAL 7527 100
North American Coal Plants 65 0.9

 Data From Global mercury emissions to the atmosphere from anthropogenic and natural sources” Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 5951–5964, 2010 by N. Pirrone, S. Cinnirella, X. Feng, et al.

The mercury emissions total from the North American coal-based plants are less than one per cent of global emissions!!  So the effect on the health of people in the US through reduction of some fraction of the coal-based plants mercury emissions is essentially too small to measure.  However the effect of the increased cost of electricity will directly affect the health of the people in the US and especially the poorest among us.

See this posting by the Institute for Energy Research to get a sense of the loss of generating capacity that this EPA regulation will cause.

Willis Eshenbach developed two charts for his posting “The EPA’s Mecurial Madness” on the WUWT website.   They visually illustrate the futility of the EPA action to make any difference in mercury levels.

The EPA has more “kill coal-based power generation capacity” arrows in its quiver, and I plan to post on this soon.  As a preview, they are proposing a standard that will not permit the installation of new coal-based plants.

cbdakota

Is This A Prelude To Nationalization Of The US Energy Companies?


On the 16th of March President Obama signed a new Executive Order allowing the President complete control over all US Resources. Click to read the detail.  The rising price of gasoline is considered to be one of the major threats to the reelection of Obama.  He is trying to dodge the blame by pretending that he really wanted the XL pipeline with his sham endorsement today in Oklahoma of the lower portion.   His approval is not needed for this section of the pipeline.  His approval is only required for pipelines that cross the US borders.  He has rejected the upper section of the XL pipeline, which brings in the oil from Canada, because his environmentist campaign fund donors oppose it. His sham of caring about our energy security  is trumped by his need for campaign monies.

So if these tricks don’t fool the public, what is his next act? Read my July 13 2011 posting titled OBAMA PLANS TO NATIONALIZE THE ENERGY COMPANIES.  He will say he is just doing this for our own good.  That he must step in and stop these out-of-control corporate robbers.  His action will be cheered by the media.

If Big Oil is driving up the prices how do they do it?  The American Petroleum Institute (API) listed the 20 Largest Oil and Gas Companies based upon their 2009 oil reserves.  It shows that 72% of the world’s oil reserves are owned by nations (not privately owned companies) such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Libya.  The biggest US Company to make the list was Exxon-Mobil at #17.   The Exxon-Mobil reserves as a percent of the world reserves are 0.68%.  Think about this situation where the OPEC type state owned companies have reserves 100 times greater than Exxon-Mobil.  Do you really believe that Exxon-Mobil is able to dictates the price of crude to OPEC?   Of course they can’t do that.

h/t to Steve Glaser

cbdakota

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Pres. Obama Says US Only Has 2% Of World Oil. Can That Be Right?


Obama said:  “With only 2% of the world’s reserves, we can’t just drill our way to lower gas prices.  Not when we consume 20% of the world’s oil.”  Addressing the 2% part of his statement, if he meant we have only 2% of the “proven reserves” he is correct. But he uses this figure hoping that you will come to an incorrect conclusion. The US is, by every analysis one of the most energy rich nations in the world.   Others, including the Congressional Research Service, say that the US is the most energy rich nation in the world

The second part –consuming 20% of the world’s oil– is a non sequitur, meaning it does not follow logically from the previous part of his statement.  We will talk about that later.

The basis for the President’s statement came from the DOE’s Energy Information Administration.  The US’s “proven” reserves of 20.6 billion barrels of oil are equivalent to 2% of the worlds proven reserves.

DOE’s Energy Information Admin (EIA) Table of US Reserves (Billions of BBL’s) 10/19/2011

Region Proven Inferred Un-discovered Total TechnicallyRecoverable
Onshore 12.7 50.1 51.1 113.9
Offshore 4.3 10.3 42.7 57.4
Alaska 3.5 2.1 42.0 47.6
Total US 20.6 62.5 135.8 218.9

Interpreting the table, Proven reserves are where oil production is underway and the extent of the fields is well known.  Inferred is the volume by which the estimate of total recovery from a known crude reservoir or aggregation of such reservoirs is expected to increase during the time between discovery and permanent abandonment.  Undiscovered is oil that very likely exists, and can be recovered depending in part on technology and/or the price of oil.

This table understates the reserves.  EAI says of the above table: Resources in areas where drilling is officially prohibited are not included.  Estimates of the resources in the Northern Atlantic, Northern and Central Pacific and within a 50-mile buffer off the Mid and Southern Atlantic OCS are excluded from the technically recoverable volumes.  A case in point is that the reserves in ANWR which according to the USGS may contain 12 billion barrels is not included because the Feds have taken it off the table.   Most of our costal waters are off-limits as well.

This table also excludes the shale oil in the Green River Formation in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming. The Feds control roughly ¾ of the public lands on which fossil fuel resources exist. Wiki says that: “The Green River Formation contains the largest oil shale deposits in the world. The 213 billion tons of oil shale contain an estimated 2.38 × 10¹¹ m³ (1.5 trillion US barrels) of shale oil.

When the proven reserves are stated,  how should you interpret the number?  Here is an example from The Institute for Energy Research:

Proved Oil Reserves Are Not Static

Let’s take a look at history. In 1944, U.S. proven oil reserves were 20 billion barrels — about the same as they are today. Yet, between 1945 and 2010, the United States produced 167 billion barrels of oil. In other words, the United States produced over 8 times more oil than the amount of proven oil reserves it had in 1944.  How can that be? The answer is that proven oil reserves are not stagnant because people keep looking for oil. Proven oil reserves keep changing, are officially recorded every year, tallied country by country, and published in the Oil and Gas Journal, among other publications. And due to U.S. entrepreneurship and ingenuity, more reserves are found and proven each year.

What Does More Recent Data Look Like?

So, is this an historic anomaly? No. Let’s look at more recent data. In 1980, according to the Energy Information Administration, the United States had 31.3 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. However, between 1980 and 2010, the United States produced 77.8 billion barrels of oil and still had 20.7 billion barrels of oil reserves left. In other words, between 1980 and 2010, the United States produced 2.5 times the amount of oil as it has proven oil reserves in 1980.

The preceding illustrates that comparing the proven reserves to oil consumption is at least faulty and perhaps intended to misinform.

The President said that we can’t drill our way to lower prices when we  are the largest consumer.   Now I know that OPEC is the major force in setting the price of crude.   Even so, they are not immune to the laws of supply and demand.  They know that  a substantial excess of supply over demand will cause them to either curtail production within the Cartel  to rebalance supply and demand or the price will drop.  They also know that if they see widespread drilling being undertaken,  lowering the price of crude can cause some marginal production capacity to shutdown.

Every country that has shale oil, will be out there trying to achieve some piece of national security brought about by having their own oil.  So the over supply is likely to happen.  Ask the natural gas suppliers how well their prices have held up in recent years now that the shale natural gas is becoming oversupplied.   It will happen to OPEC too.  And the sooner the better.

cbdakota

Fisker Has A New Problem


The Securities and Exchange Commissions (SEC) issued Wells Notices to the brokers (Advanced Equities, Inc) who raised most of the private financing for taxpayer-backed Fisker Automotive in connection with a private offering in 2009.  A Wells Notices tells the recipients that charges may be brought against them. According to SEC.com,  “Receiving a Wells Notice is hardly a positive event, as it signifies that you are the subject of an investigation and that enforcement proceedings are going to be commenced against you”.

There is speculation that this action by the SEC followed the filing of a lawsuit against Fisker and Advanced Equities by investor, Daniel Wray, for their alleged failure to perform fiduciary duties and for fraud, according to a posting by the National Legal and Policy Center.   This may be why the Energy Department (DOE) is holding up further distribution of a loan set aside for Fisker.  As noted in previous postings DOE said Fisker had not met the required “milestones”.

The National Legal and Policy Center posting, written by Paul Chesser, does some editorializing that is pretty much on the mark.

“It seems every week taxpayers learn something new about the clean energy “bets” the Obama administration has demanded they finance – especially Fisker. So far, before the loan was halted, $193 million in public money poured into the maker of an EV that only rich people can afford, who also get a $7,500 tax credit (plus whatever California is handing out lately) per vehicle purchase to boot. Beyond that the taxpayer support for Fisker enhanced the stock of its political allies like Kleiner Perkins (where Gore is a senior partner), and also helped pay for connected lobbyists to get the loan, while crony lawyers got paid to work inside DOE to see the loan to completion.

And now we discover The Chicago Way may have been behind Fisker’s private fundraising, and the SEC plans to find out more. This dog has a lot of fleas.

Last week,  the President announced that he wants  to up the rebate for the purchase of a hybrid or an EV. Currently the buyer can to receive up to a $7500 tax credit.  Obama  now wants to give the buyer a $10,000 check at the time of purchase.

cbdakota

Climate Change Impacts In The USA are Already (NOT) Happening


This posting’s title, “Climate Change Impacts In the USA Are Already (Not) Happening” is a direct lift of a Craig Loehle, Ph.D. essay that was posted on the WattsUpWithThat website.   Loehle says that the US Government reports by such groups as “NASA, NOAA, EPA, USFWS, USFS, USDA and other agencies mention that climate change impacts are already observable in the USA.” Loehle adds: “This is discussed in the context of endangered species conservation, forest resource assessment, future water availability, disaster planning, agriculture policy, etc. I have read many of these reports, which often refer back to the IPCC or the US Global Change Research Program. But they are usually vague on details of what bad things are expected to happen, generally referring to increases in extreme events. Nevertheless, these vague bad things are being used to guide policy.

The USA has some of the best data and is a large country. Are bad effects of climate change really visible already? In what follows, I address the evidence often put forward to support these claims and compare these to the literature. The true story is far from alarming.”

Loehle discusses what the facts support about these observable climate impacts versus the vague bad things that the Government is spinning. The main topics he weighs in on are:

  • Ocean Acidification
  • Sea Level Rise
  • Temperature Increases
  • Floods
  • Regional Drought Frequency
  • Extreme Storm Events
  • Hurricanes
  • Fires
  • Algal Blooms
  • Changes in Ecosystems

That is a comprehensive list.  He includes references for your examination.  Click here to see the complete essay.

Loehle concludes saying: “Within the United States, the claim that bad climate effects can “already” be detected is a totally subjective and unsupported hypothetical.”

Read Loehle discussion of each of these topics.  Then spread the word.  You have to do it via the Internet and/or conversations with family, co-workers, and friends.   We cannot depend on the media as they just regurgitate whatever the alarmist say.  Partly because the media loves doom, gloom and blood to try to catch their reader’s interest.

cbdakota

Cycle 24—February Update


Cycle 24 activity took another drop in February.  The Sunspot number for February was about 30 versus the 60+ in January. (Click on Charts to expand.)

That’s a major drop in the sunspot number.  Cycle 24 certainly looks like it will be the least active cycle in the last hundred years.

Dr Hathaway of NASA has again revised his forecast of Cycle 24 Sunspots.  He now says that  the Cycle 24 sunspot number will peak (maximum) at 59. Below is his March 2012 sunspot number forecast:


F10.7 cm radio flux is down as well.  First shown on the NOAA chart followed by Dr Hathaways revised chart:

And the magnetic activity as indicated by the Ap index remains low:

cbdakota

Global Temperature Update—February 2012


The UAH satellite global temperatures have been posted by Dr Roy Spencer on his website.  The February temperature anomaly is -0.12 C.   That is just slightly down from the January number of -0.09C.

Above is Dr Spencer’s chart (click on it to enlarge) of the global temperature anomalies since the start of the satellite temperature-measuring program in the late seventies.  The average global temperature departure is about 0.16C warmer that the average temperature for the period 1981-2010.  Dr Spencer might not approve of this calculation but 0.16 C over that 30-year period might indicate a warming of about 0.6C per century.  Further, if solar Cycle 24 and the next Cycle 25 perform as many are now forecasting, we may see the anomaly go negative for many years.

cbdakota

Lubos Motl’s 104 Reasons To Be A Skeptic


Lubos Motl’s skeptical website, The Reference Frame, is widely read and cited.  Motl counters John Cook’s assertions about man-made global warming.  Motl provides background science that will serve skeptics in any discussion and/or debate.  Motl introduces his material as follows:

John Cook, a former student of physics in Australia, has constructed an interesting website trying to attack the opinions of climate skeptics.

It’s been in my climate bookmarks for quite some time but no one really cared about it so I didn’t want to respond. However, his talking counter-points were recently adopted by an iPhone application. Moreover, Andrew Revkin promoted the website, too. So let us look at his points and counter-points.

Motl matches the headings from Cook’s listing of “myths” and Motl adds his view illustrating what the real story is. Below are two of the 104 topics so you can get a flavor of what is included. To read to all of Motl’s work click here.

On his (Cook) website, you can currently see 102 observations by the skeptics (or some skeptics); 2 of them were added by March 29th and I can’t constantly update this web page so that he’s likely to surpass his 104 points sometime in the future. Each of the “slogans” is accompanied by a short attempted rebuttal by John Cook. And if you click it, you get to a long rebuttal. So let’s look at them:

1. It’s the sun: I agree with Richard Lindzen that it’s silly to try to find “one reason behind all climate change”, because the climate is pretty complex and clearly has lots of drivers, and this applies to the opinion that “everything is in the Sun”, too. Cook shows that the solar irradiance is too small and largely uncorrelated to the observed changes of temperatures. I agree with that: a typical 0.1% change of the output is enough for a 0.025% change of the temperature in Kelvins which is less than 0.1 °C and unlikely to matter much. But I find it embarrassing for a student of solar physics such as himself to be so narrow-minded. The Sun influences the Earth’s atmosphere not only directly by the output but also indirectly, by its magnetic field and its impact on the cosmic rays (via solar wind etc.) and other things. He has completely ignored all these things. Of course, I am actually not certain that these effects are very important for the climate but the evidence – including peer-reviewed articles – is as diverse as the evidence supporting CO2 as an important driver.

104. Southern sea ice is increasing: Cook agrees but says that it surely has nothing to do with warming or global climate change. It must be due to “complex phenomena” such as changes of the winds and circulation. Note that such comments would be unthinkable if he tried to discuss the Northern sea ice. As we have noticed, all “warming” observations are about the climate, important signals that you should appreciate, worship, extrapolate, and be afraid of. On the other hand, all “cooling” observations are just an irrelevant weather that you should dismiss, humiliate, and spit on. With such a biased attitude, it shouldn’t be shocking that Mr Cook ends up with an irrational orthodoxy based on 104 largely obscure misinterpretations, misunderstandings, and myths – and that his opinions about the most important questions are upside down.

Go through all of them, you will might learn something that you didn’t know.

cbdakota

Volt and Leaf February sales


The February sales numbers for Volt and Leaf are in.   Volt numbers were 1023 which bettered January sales of 603.    Leaf numbers were 478 which trailed January sales of 679.   Y-T-D  sales for Volt are 1,626 and Leaf 1,157.  Chevy’s 4 cylinder ICE sales were up 46 percent.  The Cruze, one of the GM 4cylinder line,  put up big numbers at 18,556 units in February.   The public is obviously moving to more fuel-efficient vehicles with gasoline prices skyrocketing.   But their choice continues to be the more affordable ICEs than the all-electrics or hybrids.

cbdakota

Germany Surrenders on Solar Power


The title of this blog is a direct lift from an American Thinker posting of the same name.   Bjorn Lomborg, the Skeptical Environmentalist reports that Germany once was proud to call themselves “photovoltaic world champion”.  But nation has found the solar-power subsidies are expensive and inefficient.  Accordingly Lomborg:’ Using solar, Germany is paying about $1,000 per ton of CO2 reduced. The current CO2price in Europe is $8. Germany could have cut 131 times as much CO2 for the same price. Instead, the Germans are wasting more than 99 cents of every euro that they plow into solar panels.”

The Germans are phasing out these subsidies over a 5 year period.

In the US, we need to get serious about stopping the handouts to the Friends of Obama too.

cbdakota