If by October 24 this year no category 3 or higher hurricane has made landfall in the USA, it will be ten years since the last major hurricane did so. Major hurricanes are those designated category 3 or higher.
Hurricane Wilma was the last major hurricane (category three) to make landfall in the United States on October 24, 2005. Wilma, carried winds of 120MPH, when it came ashore in the southwestern coast of Florida. Katrina, also a category 3 hurricane, preceded Wilma having come ashore in the Gulf Coast on August 29, 2005.
The US uses the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale to rate the potential damage/danger that the storm brings.
|Cate||Damage||Windspeed, MPH||Windspeed, M/S|
|5||Cata’rophic||Greater than 156||Greater than 69|
If conditions are just right, tropical storms like Sandy that came ashore in Atlantic City on October 29, 2005 can cause enormous damage. Sandy dropped over 11 inches of rain on Atlantic City. Associated storm surges played havoc along the coastline and into the New York Harbor area where water flooded sections of New York City. Some storms like Sandy, said to have caused damage estimated to be more than $36 billion, sometimes fight above their weight class. This usually occurs where there are much building and settlement along the coast.
“Man-made global warming” is forecast to make hurricanes become more frequent and more dangerous. Although it appears that the correlation between man-made global warming and hurricanes is some what tenuous, that has not stopped those who choose “alarm” over science to shout how bad it is and how bad it will be.
And now for some forecasts by the alarmists from a posting on Fabius Maximus.com. : “Since Katrina, climate activists have beat a steady drumbeat warning of doom.
- “Warming seas cause stronger hurricanes“, Nature, 2006 — “Mega-storms are set to increase as the climate hots up.”
- “Are Category 6 Hurricanes Coming Soon?“, Scientific American, 2011 — “Tropical cyclones like Irene are predicted to be more powerful this year, thanks to natural conditions”
- “Global warming is ‘causing more hurricanes’“, The Independent, 2012.
- “A Katrina hurricane will strike every two years“, ScienceNordic, 2013 — About a widely reported study in PNAS by geophysicist Aslak Grinsted of the Niels Bohr Institute Copenhagen U. Also see “‘Katrina-Like’ Hurricanes to Occur More Frequently Due to Warming” in US News & World Reports.
- “Hurricanes Likely to Get Stronger & More Frequent“, Climate Central, 2013 – About a study in PNAS by Kerry Emanuel et al.
See ten even more outlandish predictions from the big 3 networks.
Some thoughts. Hurricanes seem to have a cycle of sorts, as shown in my previous posting. So, category 3 hurricanes may make a comeback at any time. But if increased global temperature is the reason for more hurricanes, perhaps the current pause and the lack of a lot of hurricanes or any major hurricanes prove the global temperatures have not been rising. One has to wonder if the real Man– made global temperature rise is the result of the manipulation of the raw temperature readings. Or at least a lot of it.
Again, given the “Al Gore effect” of unusual cold weather at major climate conferences, the lack of hurricanes and other ‘predicted’ extreme weather events, and the fact that nearly all IPCC models are now well outside their 90% confidence intervals; I suggest we ‘name’ this prolonged failure to help ensure others from attempting similar foolish behavior in the future. I suggest this the name of the “Hansen-Gore-Mann failure.”
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