Category Archives: US Auto Manufacturers

Hertz Dumping 20,000 EVs.

Posted on January 12, 2024 | Leave a comment

Hertz is dumping 20, 000 EVs because customers prefer gasoline powered cars and the cost of repairs is higher than gasoline autos (ICE).

They are going to buy ICE vehicles to replace them.

A Bloomberg posting titled “Hertz to Sell 20,000 EVs in Shift Back to Gas-Powered Cars” relates:

“The sales of 20,000 EVs began last month and will continue over the course of 2024, the rental giant said Thursday in a regulatory filing. Hertz will record a non-cash charge in its fourth-quarter results of about $245 million related to incremental net depreciation expense.

The dramatic about-face, after Hertz announced plans in 2021 to buy 100,000 Tesla Inc. vehicles, underscores the waning demand for all-electric cars in the US. EV sales growth slowed sharply over the course of 2023, rising just 1.3% in the final quarter as consumers were put off by high costs and interest rates.”

Just more evidence that the general population do not want the EV.

cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, Electric Vehicles, US Auto Manufacturers

Will EV Insurance Go Up Because of Fires?—It’s the Battery Stupid, Part4

Posted on December 14, 2023 | Leave a comment

We are told that EVs do not experience as many fires as do Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) vehicles and that may be true. But there is no question about EV fires being much more hazardous. Besides being more hazardous, these fires can be unexpected. For example, EV battery fires in garages have occurred without the owner having any idea it was going to happen.

It is well known that EV batteries that have been exposed to salt water are very likely to ignite. EVs involved in a collision are dangerous too if the battery housing is damaged.

Salt water is conductive where common water is not. The salt water can cause a short in a lithium-ion cell thus resulting in an electricity discharge that heats up the cell. A thermal runaway reaction can then occur heating up other cells and cause them to burn. It is possible for this to cause the entire set of batteries cells to begin their own thermal runaway reaction.

CRS AUTOMOTIVE blog “HOW PRONE ARE ELECTRIC CARS TO CATCHING FIRE” adds this:

“How else is a lithium-ion battery fire different from a gasoline fire? The biggest difference is the time it takes to ignite. Gasoline fires start almost immediately when gasoline comes in contact with a spark or flame and spreads rapidly. Battery fires typically take some time to achieve the heat necessary to start the fire.

In some instances, that delay is very good news. It can let the occupants of a car involved in a crash get out of the vehicle before the fire starts. But it can pose its own problems. Sometimes a battery can be damaged, perhaps by the car running over some debris, and the driver might not be aware of the damage. And then a fire can start well after the initial incident. That could theoretically cause a fire after the car is parked in a garage. With an electric car fire, you need water. That might sound obvious, but in many cases, modern fire departments use foam or dry chemicals that are better than old-fashioned H20 at suppressing fires. While dry chemicals are great at putting down ordinary electrical fires, they may be ineffective with a fire stemming from a car’s Lithium-ion battery

Water is the best approach to a Lithium-ion fire. But that doesn’t mean you should imitate a sprinkler and attempt to dose the whole fire by moving back and forth. Rather, you want to keep a direct and focused stream on the battery until it relents – and you’d need anywhere between two to 30 tonnes (8000 gallons) of water to put out this kind of fire. Also, don’t touch the high voltage components or open up the battery. They’re the most likely part of the battery to absorb heat.”

Special training for firemen is required to deal with a potential electrical charge on the autos frame.

The visual evidence appears to show that an EV fire generally destroys the entire car. Some of the ICE fires do too, but destruction of the entire car is not a given. Most of the ICE fires occur in older cars that have not had a good maintenance history. If you had a 2015 Toyota engine fire and had to replace the entire motor, it would cost between $4,000 and $5,500. This includes the cost of parts and labor according to the CAR COSTING blog. Not cheap but certainly less than what a totaled EV would cost.

Some insurers in the UK have already begun to raise the rates of EVs.

cbdakota

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Posted in Batteries, US Auto Manufacturers

Tagged Electric Vehicles, electric-cars

Battery Life and Replacement–It’s the EV battery Stupid, Part 4

Posted on December 11, 2023 | Leave a comment

I think that the industry has not had enough experience to accurately predict life of an EV battery.

Consumer Affairs speaks to this issue in their July, 2023 blog titled “EV battery replacement cost”. Their findings are summarized:

“We reached out to five mechanics and technicians from different parts of the U.S. to see how much an EV battery replacement costs for different vehicles, and the average results ranged from $4,489 all the way to a staggering $17,658.

All EV batteries will eventually fail to hold a charge and require replacement.
It’s hard to pinpoint how long EV batteries will last, but most have a life span between eight and 15 years.
Sourcing a replacement EV battery from anyone but your car’s manufacturer is nearly impossible, which is the main reason replacement costs are so high.
EV battery repair is a growing industry that may help you avoid the high cost of a replacement, but it’s not commonly available yet.
The Federal Government requires the car maker to guarantee 100,000 miles or 8 years whichever comes first. Some warranties only cover the EV battery if it no longer holds a charge at all, while others will cover the replacement of any EV battery that has dropped below 60% or 70% of its maximum capacity.

I do not think that a used EV buyer would have any guarantee on battery that had already met one of those stipulations.

The following chart was assembled by Consumer Affairs after interviewing mechanics around the country. It may look strange to be dealing with 2014 EVs but that reflects the car’s age using the battery. The Prius is a hybrid with a small ICE engine and a battery combination.

Vehicle	Average parts cost	Average labor cost	Average total cost
2014 Tesla Model S	$13,500	$1,500	$15,000
2014 Nissan Leaf	$17,269	$388	$17,657
2014 Toyota Prius	$3,858	$631	$4,489

Next Car’s June 2022 posting, “EV Batteries 101: Degradation, lifespan, warranties and more” echos Consumer Affairs posting. NEXT Car adds:

“Buying a used Tesla with close to or more than 100,000 miles on the odometer, or holding onto the one you already own out of warranty, is a much riskier decision given the high cost of repairs”.

cbdakota

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Posted in Batteries, Electric Vehicles, Personal Automobiles, US Auto Manufacturers

EV Battery Charging–Its The Battery, Stupid. Part 3

Posted on December 5, 2023 | Leave a comment

The Alliance for Automotive Innovation says there are approximately 100,000 public charging ports in the US. The Federal Government is attempting to provide more. The Fed’s target is 500,000 charging ports. If there were more charging stations, there would be less range anxiety.

The rough number of gasoline/diesel filling stations is 145,000. Well, if it feels like there is a filling station almost anywhere, why would there need to have 500,000 charging ports? The answer is because it takes so long to recharge the battery.

The Biden Administration’s plan to put up 500,000 charging ports will probably take a while to accomplish. Currently, the plan is for each State to install a charging station along their major highways, 50 miles apart. Further, a charging station must be within a mile of an on and off Interstate intersection.

A private party that wants to operate a charging station picks a site for the station. The site is approved. The Feds will pay up to 80% of the cost and the private party must pay 20% or more. These stations can cost up to $1million. Each station must have a minimum of 4 charging ports.

The API says that the average fill-uptakes 2 minutes for an ICE vehicle. Then that vehicle could go 300 to 400 miles of highway driving.

Examining the EV owner’s options for recharging the battery so as it has range of 350 miles. (Hour charge to miles range from US Department of Transportation-Charger types and speed.)

Level 1 Minimum cost using house AC outlet. One hour provides 2.5 miles of range. So about 6 days to get charged to 350 miles range.

Level 2 Purchasing a charger/installation required. 240-volt system, a home installation. One hour provides 10 to 20 miles of range. Using the 20 miles per hour charge would need 17 hours to get 350 miles range.

Level 3 Fast DC. The public stations are mostly at this level. One hour charge provides about 180-to-240-mile range. Using 240 mile per hour charge would take about an hour and a half to get 350 miles range.

Tesla Supercharger. Dedicated Tesla charging points. One hour would give 1000 miles range. The 350-mile range would be done in about 20 minutes.

Some thoughts:

Anyone that buys an EV and uses a level1 must have more money than that sense. For certain, that person has an ICE car in the garage. The EV is for show.
If you buy an EV and you live in an apartment, where you only have street parking, you would have to go to public charging stations.
Level 2 requires a professional installation with costs that can be steep, often a thousand dollars or more. The charger itself isn’t free.
Level 3. If you use FastDC you will spend more money for charges than if you use a level 2 installed system using your cheaper home electricity.
Very important: routine charging with Superchargers and Fast DC degrades the batteries to the point they won’t be able to hold their charge as long. The fast chargers heat up the battery and that can cause loss of battery range. Tesla says that you should use these fast chargers sparingly.

Every charge degrades the battery’s capacity a little. From Wikipedia:

Capacity loss or capacity fading is a phenomenon observed in rechargeable battery usage where the amount of charge a battery can deliver at the rated voltage decreases with use.^[1]^[2]

In 2003 it was reported the typical range of capacity loss in lithium-ion batteries after 500 charging and discharging cycles varied from 12.4% to 24.1%, giving an average capacity loss per cycle range of 0.025–0.048% per cycle.^[3]

Public charging stations are often not close to an available place that you can retire to, while you wait for your battery to get charged. Think of sitting in your car in inclement weather, either hot or cold.
Public charging stations are not always reliable. The following is from

. Findings from a 2022 University of California, Berkely study showed that one-quarter of public chargers in the San Francisco Bay Area didn’t work due to “unresponsive or unavailable screens, payment system failures, charge initiation failures, network failures, or broken connectors”.

The cause may be lack of income the company gets from charging EVs. The US numbers of EVs on the road are not as many as was predicted.

Charging time is very long. Charging stations are inadequate for even the small number of EVs on the road. The fast chargers are desirable, but their use shortens the life of the battery.

cbdakota

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Posted in Batteries, Electric Vehicles, fossil fuels, Personal Automobiles, President Biden, US Auto Manufacturers

Tagged charging-options, cost-savings, Electric Vehicles, electric-cars, ev, evs, portable-power-station

Range is the Rage: Its The EV Battery, Stupid

Posted on December 3, 2023 | Leave a comment

Range is the Rage

Car and Driver say that range is the all-important stat. Car and Driver posting goes on to say:

“Whether or not you make it to the next public charging spot, are able to complete your daily commute, or are instead stranded on the side of the road depends on it.

Range is so heavily scrutinized because EVs can travel on average barely half the distance of gas-powered vehicles before they require a “fill-up,” and because gas pumps are far more ubiquitous than fast chargers”.

The amount of charge of the EV’s battery is akin to the amount of gasoline (or diesel) in the ICE’s (internal compbution engine)tank. The battery charge will determine how many miles your EV can go before it is exhausted. That is equivalent to an ICE running empty of gasoline. Many postings by EV owners are about trying to find an EV battery charging station before the battery is “empty”. see here and here and here .Pretty agonizing and unlike the feeling you have, that there is a gasoline station almost anywhere. You can get more charge and thus miles of range by getting a bigger, heavier battery, but that drives the cost of the vehicle up. You don’t have to buy a bigger motor to get more range, if you purchase a smaller, lighter ICE vehicle at a lesser cost.

The EPA rates highway vehicle range and puts the range number on the vehicle’s window sticker in the show rooms. They do this for Electric vehicles (EV) and internal combustion (ICE –gasoline and diesel) vehicles. The range provided by the EPA for EVs is almost always an overstatement according to Car and Driver. Car and Driver EV range tests are conducted at a steady 75 miles per hour (MPH). They do this “because highway driving is where range most matters”. By contrast, ICE vehicles almost always beat the EPA ratings in the 75 MPH tests. This is because the ICE vehicles have transmission gears whereas only a few EV models have transmission gearing. The EV motors must increase revolutions where the motors are less efficient.

There are other factors that affect range. One of which is temperature. In cold weather, ICE vehicles heat the cabin using the waste heat that comes from combustion of the gasoline. In the summer, ICE engine heat is dissipated by the radiator. The EVs use a resistive heater that consumes a lot of battery power.

The South Dakota Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Deployment Plan (SDEVIDP) referenced several tests relative to use of heaters in the cold weather and air conditioning in the hot weather.

According to field testing performed by the Norwegian Auto Federation, operation on a standardized test course in temperatures ranging 21° F to 37° F reduced EV range by approximately 20% and they also lengthened charging times in cold temperatures. A similar result was observed in dynamometer testing by the American Automobile Association that indicated that without internal vehicle heating, EV battery range dropped by 12% at 20° F, but with the heater in operation, it dropped roughly 41%. Consistent with other studies, at 95° F, EV battery range dropped by 4% without air conditioning and by 17% with air conditioning in operation.

The Idaho National Laboratory conducted a study of EV charging under a broad range of temperature conditions over a nearly two-year period, using data collected from a taxi fleet operating in New York City. The study determined that the time to reach 80% state of charge (SOC) doubled or tripled at temperatures below 32° F.

There is another factor that limits range. The manufacturers of the EV batteries recommend that you always keep the charge between 20% to 80%. Not 0% to 100%. So good management of the battery’s life limits the range to just 60%. More on this during the discussion of battery charging.

Summary

The EV range is usually overstated by the EPA. To increase range, you would need a bigger battery and that is costly. Temperature, cold or warm, reduce the battery charge. On a cold day, for example, by as much as 40% if you use the cabin heater on a cold day. To extend the battery’s life, it should not drop below 20% or exceed 80%. You will have to recharge it more often to prevent it from going below 20%,

cbdakota

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Posted in Batteries, Electric Vehicles, Personal Automobiles, Uncategorized, US Auto Manufacturers

Its The EV Battery, Stupid!

Posted on November 30, 2023 | Leave a comment

The title is paraphrasing the Ragin Cajun, political adviser to the Clintons, James Carville. Carville said when asked about the biggest issue in an upcoming election, “it’s the economy, stupid” I contend that the biggest issue for the electric vehicle (EV) is the battery.

The battery represents the proposed transition from gasoline and diesel fuel to electricity. The transition will not be easy, if at all. Usually, major transitions have occurred because some new thing is better than the existing thing. That is not happening here. The EV is more costly, is less flexible, not as capable and is planned to be charged from an electrical grid that is sourced from wind turbines and solar cells. The latter, the so-called renewable energy, has not demonstrated that it is capable of keeping the grids supplying a reliable supply of electricity 24/7. Nowhere. Nada. see here But politicians keep throwing money at these schemes. You must wonder why they would do that. Well maybe not.

The EV sales are not displacing gasoline and diesel vehicles because they are better. No. It is replacing those fuel driven vehicles by Government fiat. Governments are giving EVs huge subsidies, and enacting regulatory systems making gasoline and diesel vehicles attain goals that are not reachable nor necessary. Six states have legislated that no gasoline or diesel-powered vehicle can be manufactured or sold after 2030 to 2035. And the Feds are considering that too.

The WSJ blog posted Car Dealers to Biden: EV’s Are Not Selling reporting that 3900 US car dealerships wrote a letter to President Biden saying his EV sales mandate is not working. They told him that:

“Dealers have a 103-day supply of EVs compared to 56 days for all cars. It takes them on average 65 days to sell an EV, about twice as long as for gas-powered cars. EV sales are slowing though manufacturers have slashed prices and increased discounts.

But most consumers aren’t “ready to make the change,” in part because EVs are still too expensive. Many apartment renters also don’t have garages for home charging, and public charging networks are spotty with one in four not functional, according to one study.

“Customers are also concerned about the loss of driving range in cold or hot weather,” the auto dealers say. “Some have long daily commutes and don’t have the extra time to charge the battery.

The dealers want the Administration to “tap the brakes” on its proposed tailpipe emissions rules that would effectively mandate that EVs comprise two-thirds of car sales by 2032

The dealers’ letter is an important political signal that progressive climate coercion isn’t as popular as Democrats think. Americans don’t like to be told what to do or what they must buy. As the dealers put it, “many people just want to make their own choice about what vehicle is right for them.” Imagine that.

The liabilities that are built in the EV battery are, to name a few:

The Range—how many miles can a charged battery propel a vehicle?
How long does it take to charge the battery?
What is the life of the battery?
How much is the cost of a replacement battery?
How safe are these batteries?
Will insurance rates be hiked up?
If most the materials needed to make a battery are suppled from
China, is that worrisome?
Battery recycling?
Major electrical revisions to supply @ home charging?
New fees replacing gasoline tax such as miles driven tax or a tax for charger use.
Government overreach?

The future postings will address these liabilities.

cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, Batteries, Electric Vehicles, Electrical grid, Government Regulations, government subsidies, Personal Automobiles, President Biden, Uncategorized, US Auto Manufacturers

Can Tesla Survive The Loss Of Subsidies?

Posted on September 1, 2017 | Leave a comment

Three years ago, The Los Angeles Times posted “Elon Musk’s growing empire is fueled by $4.9 billion in government subsidies”. I have not seen a summary of the current total of Musk’s subsidies but it is certainly more than $4.9 billion now. When The LA Times speaks about an “empire” it included Tesla, Space X and Solar City—all Musk controlled businesses.

This discussion will focus on the Tesla electric vehicle (EV) business.

Subsidies start with the Federal Tax Credit of $7,500 given to each buyer of a Tesla EV. (Every EV maker gets the same treatment.). California also provides a $2500 subsidy per car.

The following is from the LA Times posting:

“Tesla has also collected more than $517 million from competing automakers by selling environmental credits. The regulation was developed in California and has been adopted by nine other states.”

These regulations require that companies selling automobiles must also sell a certain percentage of EVs. Sales of an EV gives the seller environmental credits. Manufacturers are penalized for not selling enough EVs and must buy credits to offset their failure. Because Tesla sells only EVs it gets a lot of credits which they sell to the other car makers.

The following 2016 video discusses what the Wall Street Journal thinks subsidies mean to the Tesla’s bottom line: (Please excuse the 15 second commercial. When video ends click back to this page.)

https://video-api.wsj.com/api-video/player/v3/iframe.html?guid=00E58A9F-9315-47FE-BFED-7C79B2C3A98B&shareDomain=null

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Posted in AGW, Alternative Energy, China, Climate Alarmism, Electric Vehicles, Electricity from Coal, Government Revenues, government subsidies, Personal Automobiles, President Trump, radical environmentalists, US Auto Manufacturers

Tesla Model 3 Sales Will Be Make Or Break For The Company

Posted on August 29, 2017 | 3 comments

Is Tesla a major player in the transportation market? The answer is no. But will Tesla be? We read that automobile engineers at the major vehicle producers begin shaking all over when they think of the threat Tesla poses. So maybe they have magic.

Have not seen it yet and I could be wrong not being an auto engineer.

How is a stock market analyzing firm ranking Tesla versus competition?

Company	TTM Sales $million	$/Share	Recommended Buy Price $/Share
Tesla	10,069	345	99
VW adr	267,350	31	29
Toyota adr	256,791	113	68
Damlier adr	189,396	74	56
Ford	153,596	11	8
General Motors	170,231	36	31

A casual glance says that Tesla share price is not based on actual sales but on investors belief that the company is something special. Note that the firm that provided the above data ventured that the actual Tesla share price was about 3.5 times their recommended buy price. The actual prices were greater than the recommend buy price for each of the companies shown in the table. But the relationship was in most cases about 1.3 or so. Some analysts believe that Tesla is looked at more of a Tech stock than and stock of a company making vehicles.

In August 2016, Elon Musk, the force behind the Tesla said that he plans to sell 500,000 vehicles by 2018 and one million by 2020. From my readings, I would guess the majority of analysts don’t think he will accomplish that goal.

Several years ago, Consumer Reports (CR) said theTesla was the best car ever. They still believe it to have superior performance but no longer rate it an unqualified success because of reports of lack of reliability. (The Toyota in my garage was purchased based upon CR’s reliability rating of the car—and CR got it right.

The lowest priced Tesla vehicle is the Model S. The S’s price starts at $69,500 and grows based upon the options the buyer elects to add. The new Model 3 is said to have a base price of $35,000.

CR posted some info on the likely cost of the new Model 3 which may disappoint some potential purchasers of Model 3. In an updated (8 August 17) posting CR said this

The base model will be black, with a Tesla-estimated range of 220 miles and 0-60 mph acceleration of 5.6 seconds. (If you want a color other than black, it’ll add $1,000.) Notable standard equipment counts WiFi and LTE internet connectivity, navigation, and the hardware to enable active safety systems, including eight cameras, forward radar, and a dozen ultrasonic sensors.

Initial Model 3 cars will feature the long-range battery (a $9,000 option) and the Premium Upgrades package (a $5,000 option), which adds heated, 12-way adjustable front seats; premium audio system; glass roof; folding/heated side mirrors; fog lamps; and a center console with covered storage and docking for two smartphones.

Enhanced Autopilot (a $5,000 option) bundles futuristic capabilities such as active cruise control, lane-keep assist, automatic lane changing and freeway exiting, and self parking. Tesla advises more such features will be added via software updates.

In the future, Tesla will offer an addition to Enhanced Autopilot that claims “full self-driving capability” for $3,000. The company says, “Model 3 will be capable of conducting trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat.” We are concerned that such a claim encourages distracted driving.

We expect typically equipped (early-delivery) cars will cost $57,700, which includes long-range battery, choice of color, Premium Upgrades package, Enhanced Autopilot, and 19-inch wheels.

A typically equipped model with the standard battery is expected to cost about $42,200, and comes with your choice of color and Enhanced Autopilot.

The free charging of the battery at Tesla stations will not extend to the Model 3

Car and Driver rated the new Model 3 the best of all the EV on the market. However that rating was based on a prototype. How valid is a prototype rating?

The US government tax credit of $7,500 has been helping Tesla sell its cars. This tax credit ends when a manufacturer reaches sales of 200.000 vehicles. It has been estimated that there have been over 100,000 Tesla sold using the tax credit. The impact of the subsides provided by governmental bodies on the sale of EVs is examined in the next posting.

How successful the Model 3 is, will define the future of the Tesla company.

cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, Batteries, CAFE Standards, Electric Vehicles, Environment, government subsidies, US Auto Manufacturers, US Manufacturing Companies

Some EV Sales Improvement, But Still Way Below Obama Forecast

Posted on January 29, 2017 | Leave a comment

Have you been keeping up with the car buying public’s interest in electric vehicles (EV)? The many models of EVs that are on the market are quite astonishing. Nearly all the manufacturers have a model or two. The sales are still well below the Obama Administrations projections. But 2016 brought some joy to the makers of plug-in EVs.

Probably most of you that are reading this know about the different versions on the market, but for those that have not been following EVs closely, let me give you some guidance.

The Toyota Prius has been the sales leader. Later on, the Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf came on the scene but they have not equaled the Prius sales volume. Those three vehicles represent the three major categories of EVs.

The Hybrid (HEV) is a vehicle that has both batteries and an internal combustion (IC) or diesel, fossil fuel powered motor to propel the vehicle. The batteries are not charged by an external plug-in arrangement but are charged by the onboard motor. The Prius is a HEV

The PHEV has both a IC or diesel motor and batteries, but in this category the batteries are charged by plugging into an external power supply. The Chevy Volt is a PHEV.

The BEV vehicle has only batteries for motive power and those batteries are charged from an external power supply. The Nissan Leaf is a representative of this category as are the Tesla and the GM Bolt.

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Posted in AGW, Alternative Energy, Batteries, CAFE Standards, Electric Vehicles, Energy Development, fossil fuels, Personal Automobiles, Renewable Energy, US Auto Manufacturers