Category Archives: Climate Models

Wind Farm’s Non-performance Endangers Lives


Kevin Myers posts “Energy policy based on renewables will win hearts but won’t protect their owners from frostbite and death due to exposure”.  He tells us that the early February cold and blizzard that swept across Europe resulted in the deaths of over three hundred people but it could have been worse.  It seems that Gazprom the principle Russian natural gas supply company was not able to keep up with demand in Europe.

Myers asks:  “Did anyone even think of deploying our wind turbines to make good the energy shortfall from Russia?”  Which he answers:” Of course not. We all know that windmills are a self-indulgent and sanctimonious luxury whose purpose is to make us feel good. Had Europe genuinely depended on green energy on Friday, by Sunday thousands would be dead from frostbite and exposure, and the EU would have suffered an economic body blow to match that of Japan’s tsunami a year ago. No electricity means no water, no trams, no trains, no airports, no traffic lights, no phone systems, no sewerage, no factories, no service stations, no office lifts, no central heating and even no hospitals, once their generators run out of fuel.

Modern cities are incredibly fragile organisms, which tremble on the edge of disaster the entire time. During a severe blizzard, it is electricity alone that prevents a midwinter urban holocaust. We saw what adverse weather can do, when 15,000 people died in the heat wave that hit France in August 2003. But those deaths were spread over a month. Last weekend’s weather, without energy, could have caused many tens of thousands of deaths over a couple of days.

Why does the entire green spectrum, which now incorporates most conventional parties across Europe, deny the most obvious of truths? To play lethal games with our energy systems in order to honour the whimsical god of climate change is as intelligent and scientific as the Aztec sacrifice of their young. Actually, it is far more frivolous, because at least the Aztecs knew how many people they were sacrificing: no one has the least idea of the loss of life that might result from the EU embracing “green” energy policies.”

Myers uses Ireland as an example:  “Wind power in Ireland actually produces only 22pc of its capacity: would you spend ¿100,000 on a car if it meant that ¿78,000 of the purchase price was wasted? It gets worse. On a really cold day, we actually need about 5,000 megawatts, but yesterday wind was producing under 50 megawatts: a grand total of 1pc of requirements. “

To read the whole of Myers’ posting, click here.

This is not untypical of wind farms.  Basically windfarms are anathema to operators of the electrical grids that supply our electricity because they cannot depend on them being a source of power.  Some times the wind blows and sometimes it doesn’t.  Customers cannot accept an electrical supply system that is intermittent.  See here, here, here, and  here for more on the unreliability wind farms power.

Routinely temperatures in many parts of the US match or exceed those experienced in France during their August 2003 heat wave. Few deaths occur in these areas of the US due to the prevalence of Air Conditioning units.  This is another example, echoing Myers, where our lives depend on a steady supply of electricity.

And what would this posting be without some comments by James Delingpole who weighed in on this topic as follows:

“Have a look at this debate between pro-renewables campaigner Jonathan Pyke and Mark Duchamp of the European Platform Against Wind Farms in The Earth Times and you’ll see what I mean:

Q: How accurate is the argument that wind turbines have to be ‘backed-up’ by alternative sources of power, eg nuclear or coal, due to the irregularity of wind?

Jonathan: It’s not accurate and I think it stems from a misunderstanding about what wind energy is for. It’s better to think of wind as the back-up for gas, allowing us to make much better use of our existing fossil fuel power plants than relying on gas alone. There’s no need to burn gas when the wind is blowing, which National Grid can predict extremely accurately. So comparing it to nuclear or coal is misleading because wind serves a different purpose; every time it blows there’s a substantial decrease in carbon emissions, volatile fossil fuel costs, water for cooling, manufacturing and pollution. The ‘back-up’ argument just isn’t valid.

R-i-g-h-t. So what you’re saying, Jonathan, is that the ONLY reason we’re carpeting some of the world’s most attractive wild countryside in horribly costly, economically inefficient, bird-liquidising, noise-polluting, view-blighting, rare-earth-metal-exploiting, property-debasing, horse-frightening, rent-seekers’ uber-horrors, is to save the odd tonne of CO2 emissions, as and when, despite the fact that the science increasingly suggests that the difference this will make to global climate will be so negligible as to be beyond measurement?

At first they said they would replace fossil fuel driven electrical generating plants, but as this has turned out badly for them they now want to convince us that what they really, really, really want to do is play the part of backup.  Yikees, the windfarms were not economic as the primary units how on earth can they be anything but less economic as backup units  and they will still be unreliable.

You can read the Delingpole’s article by clicking here.

cbdakota

The Warmers—-The Gang That Can’t Shoot Straight


Last year the Warmers were defending the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report’s conclusion that the Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035.   Oops, they then said, we meant 2350.  Even so, we are being told that the glaciers were melting and so quickly that the people in Asia would be in big trouble when there was no more melt water.  They believed that melting of Himalayan glacial ice was equivalent to 50 billion tons of water every year.  But now a study  ( lead scientist John Wahr and team) published in Nature tells that the Himalayan glaciers have lost no ice over the last decade. The measurements of global ice for this study were done using satellites.   According to the report:

The reason for the radical reappraisal of ice melting in Asia is the different ways in which the current and previous studies were conducted. Until now, estimates of melt water loss for all the world’s 200,000 glaciers were based on extrapolations of data from a few hundred monitored on the ground. Those glaciers at lower altitudes are much easier for scientists to get to and so were more frequently included, but they were also more prone to melting.

The bias was particularly strong in Asia, said Wahr:

“Their extrapolation is really tough as only a handful of lower-altitude glaciers are monitored and there are thousands there very high up.”

Satellite data for the rest of the world’s glaciers were also measured and the team reported no changes in the melt rate.

Glaciers have been melting for the last 10,000 years.   The question is really— is the present rate particularly unusual?  This study certainly puts into question the warmers previous assertion that it is.  Isn’t this just one more indication that there has been no statistically significant global warming over the past decade.

But whenever a study comes out like this, it is required to say—- nothing has changed, CO2 is still the problem.    Prof Jonathan Bamber, the director of the Bristol Glaciology Centre said:

“The new data does not mean that concerns about climate change are overblown in any way. It means there is a much larger uncertainty in high mountain Asia than we thought. Taken globally all the observations of the Earth’s ice – permafrost, Arctic sea ice, snow cover and glaciers – are going in the same direction.

NOT OVERBLOWN?????  (Just more uncertainty!!)

Professor Bamber also participated in an online Q and A session.  He responded to a question from “On Earth” as follows:

OnEarth. For Antarctica and Greenland the results from this study are in very good agreement with most recent previous estimates of mass loss from the ice sheets so it doesn’t change our view of what these are doing.

I have always had a lot of respect for “most recent previous estimates..” what ever they are.

Are we to assume that much stress is being felt in Asian lands where the Himalayan ice melt is so important according to the IPCC?  If there is no net change in total ice as the study tells us, does that mean there is a vastly reduced melt water flow?  By the way, there are many studies that say the monsoons are the principal source of the water these Asian countries rely upon.

To read more click here and here.

cbdakota

January 2012 Global Temperature


The only global temperature report that I really trust is the UAH satellite readings that Dr Roy Spencer manages.  The temperature in January took the expected drop.

Chart courtesy of Dr Spencer’s  Global Warming blog. (click on chart to enlarge)

The January temperature is equivalent to the January 2011 but below 2009 and 2010 January temps.  If the forecast of a very weak solar Cycle 25  comes to pass, we should see some record lows in coming years.

cbdakota

To Maintain Their Integrity, Scientists Need to Become Skeptics


If the first release of Climategate emails in November of 2009 wasn’t enough to convince people that a small group of superwarmer scientists have been advancing the theory of man-made global warming through manipulation, this newly released batch (generally called Climategate 2) should convince them.

First of all, why should anyone care if this “small” group of superwarmers is doing bad things?  The reason is that this small group controls the dialogue on this subject. It manipulates the data to comply with their point of view; it writes the critical parts of the IPCC reports; it decides what is published and what is not published; and, it punishes scientists and organizations that don’t toe the line.  While we are being squeezed financially, they are pulling in millions of dollars in grants and honors.

The people that need to step up and put an end to this charade are the good and descent scientists that have been taken in by the superwarmers.   They suffer from a confirmation bias that has to be pretty hard to sustain these days of no global temperature rise, falling sea levels and all the climategate email revelations, just to name a few things.   These scientists must stand up against the blind allegiance that their professional societies maintain to catastrophic man-made global warming theory.  Certainly there are enough reasons for them to become skeptics.   They should be comfortable in saying that until there is more proof and open discussions of the science of the global climate, they no longer are going to support the  warmer supergroup.  Until that happens, the media will continue to uncritically pass on to the public anything the superwarmers tell them because they always use in their defense “almost all scientist agree with the supergroup”.

By the way, for those of you are under the impression that members of the warmer supergroup have been investigated and exonerated, you need to read up on this and you will learn that the exoneration was predetermined.  For one good read on this, see here.

cbdakota

Son of Climategate-New Emails Released


Just released are a new batch of emails from that group of global warming alarmist matching those released two years ago.  These new emails show the same pattern as before—  manipulating data (“hiding the decline”);  not allowing anything that did not conform to their theory of global warming get into the IPCC climate report;   intimidating Journals to prevent them from publishing studies that refuted man-made global warming; and destroying or concealing data/ correspondence requested by Freedom Of Information Acts.

The irony of this new release is that the “scientists” claimed that the first release was theft and asked the police to find the guilty party.  The police are said to have accumulated about 250,000 emails  during their investigation. The police have just released 5000 of them!!!  Maybe the police thought the bigger villains were the writers of these email.

Several posting have lifted some of the emails from the list of 500.  To get a look at these, check out these sites.  Here, here and here

GRAPH THAT FOOLED THE WORLD


On Sunday, October 30, the London Daily Mail published the following two graphs.

The first graph labeled “Graph That Fooled The World” came from the BEST study that was released prior to peer review and publication.    The lead author Professor Richard Muller and his team from Berkley (University of California) Earth Surface Team (BEST) claimed that the chart showed that–the planet has warmed by almost a degree centigrade since 1950 and is warming continuously.  He said according to the Mail that the research: “proved you should not be a sceptic, at least not any longer.”  This graph was presented to the MSM over a week ago.  It was reprinted for today’s edition along with the second graph which is new.

From the Mail:

It was cited uncritically by, among others, reporters and commentators from the BBC, The Independent, The Guardian, The Economist and numerous media outlets in America.

The Washington Post said the BEST study had ‘settled the climate change debate’ and showed that anyone who remained a sceptic was committing a ‘cynical fraud’.

But today The Mail on Sunday can reveal that a leading member of Prof Muller’s team has accused him of trying to mislead the public by hiding the fact that BEST’s research shows global warming has stopped.

Prof Judith Curry, who chairs the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at America’s prestigious Georgia Institute of Technology, said that Prof Muller’s claim that he has proven global warming sceptics wrong was also a ‘huge mistake’, with no scientific basis.

The second graph titled The Inconvenient Truth uses the BEST data that show global temperatures at a standstill.  This Graph was not sent to the media by Muller.

The Mail adds these comments by Professor Curry:

As for the graph disseminated to the media, she said: ‘This is “hide the decline” stuff. Our data show the pause, just as the other sets of data do. Muller is hiding the decline.

‘To say this is the end of scepticism is misleading, as is the statement that warming hasn’t paused. It is also misleading to say, as he has, that the issue of heat islands has been settled.’

Yesterday Prof Muller insisted that neither his claims that there has not been a standstill, nor the graph, were misleading because the project had made its raw data available on its website, enabling others to draw their own graphs.

However, he admitted it was true that the BEST data suggested that world temperatures have not risen for about 13 years. But in his view, this might not be ‘statistically significant’, although, he added, it was equally possible that it was – a statement which left other scientists mystified. (added emphasis)

And you should probably not hold your breath waiting for a mea culpa from the MSM  for their jumping on a story that was at a minimum misleading if not intentionally wrong.

There is another posting  that Greenwire  titled “Provoked scientists try to explain lag in global warming.”  The expert warmer scientists, in their own words, can not answer this question.  Interestingly, they have many theories but no CONSENSUS.   Obivouly nothing any of them say can possibly be correct if there is no CONSENSUS.   I will comment on that posting next.

For a full reading of the Mail story, click here.

cbdakota

September Solar Cycle 24 Activity Increased


September Sunspot and Flux (F 10.7) data indicate a step change in Cycle 24 activity.  It was enough to cause Dr Hathaway to revise his Sunspot prediction chart once again.  He raised all three ranges, high, mid and low upward.  The mid-range was bumped up about 15%. (Click on Charts for better view.)   The Sunspot chart from NOAA/SWPC shown below indicates a monthly value increase from about 50 to 80 sunspots.  This chart suggests that the actual data is on track to match their prediction. And the Solar Radio             flux is tracking the NOAA/SWPC prediction. The Sun has a mind (or some kind of mechanism) of its own. To date in October   the Planetary A index is low and this usually means a less active Sun.  Will the numbers for Sunspots and Solar Radio Flux for the month of October drop?   Put in a planetary a index.   cbdakota

If They Could REALLY Model Global Climate Only One Model Would Be Needed


The chart below is from Dr Roy Spencer’s blog “Global Warming”.  It shows the output from 14 different climate models versus the CERES Global satellite measurement of heat loss into space.  This chart was assembled in response to criticism by Warmers that he had cherry picked the climate models he used to contrast their performance versus his work in a recently published paper in Remote Sensing. Following the post publication criticism, Dr Spencer has done a little tweaking but nothing that changes his conclusions.   See here  and here for discussion of this issue.

But this posting is not to review the bidding on Dr Spencer’s paper.   It is to talk about the Warmer’ Global Climate Models.  Whenever I see this assembly of Warmer Global Climate Models output, I wonder why anyone believes the predictions they make.  If they could REALLY model our global climate they would only need one model.   Instead, all 14 give different results!!!   Does that really instill you with a lot of confidence in their ability to do skillful prediction?    What the 14 models do is allow them to make predictions based upon the most extreme model output.  It also allows them to match just about any condition at any time with at least one of the models.  Think—-A stopped watch tells the right time two times a day.

cbdakota

Solar Cycle 24 August Update


Solar Cycle 24 August Sunspot and Solar Flux data continues to paint a picture of a much less active Sun when compared against the previous Cycle 23.

First, David Hathaway’s September edition of his sunspot predictions. Hathaway has a mid, high and low range chart with the actual data slightly below the mid-range forecast.  The Hathaway midrange predicts a maximum monthly high of about 70 Sunspots in early 2013.   Cycle 23 experienced a maximum monthly high of about 120 in 2001.

NOAA  sunspot prediction chart has only a single line which predicts a maximum monthly of about 90 sunspots.    It is shown below:

Solar flux through August appears to be trending below the NOAA prediction for Cycle 24.  The NOAA Cycle 24 solar flux prediction is for a peak of 140 in 2013.   This contrasts with  the Cycle 23 maximum of about 195 in 2002.    See the NOAA chart below:

cbdakota

Can We Really Call Climate Science A Science?


Can We Really Call Climate Science A Science?  That is the question asked in a Forbes Posting.  The author, Paul Roderick Gregory, cites the prevailing warmist’s narrative that says all but a tiny minority of scientist believes that global warming is man- made.  Gregory likens this to Stalin telling Trotsky (the dissident) it is what the poliburo says it is regardless if it is true or not.

Gregory  writes: The “warmist” consensus view of “climate science” is represented at a popular level by advocates like Al Gore and at the scientific and technical level by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as supported by researchers at East Anglia (Phil Jones) and Penn State (Michael Mann). This panoply of people and organizations is the equivalent of the Central Committee in my Stalin dialog above.   “Skeptics” (the equivalent of Trotsky above) are individual scientists and advocates who stake out positions at odds with the IPCC-Central Committee orthodoxy.

Gregory says that three recent events make him think of this Stalin analogy:

First, Ivar Giaever, the 1973 winner of the Nobel Prize in physics, resigned from the American Physical Society over his disagreement with its statement that “the evidence (on warming alarmism) is incontrovertible.”

Gregory adds: The Giaever story starkly disputes warmist claims of “inconvertible evidence.   Despite the press’s notable silence on such matters, there are a large number of prominent scientists with solid scholarly credentials who disagree with the IPCC-Central Committee. Those who claim “proven science” and “consensus” conveniently ignore such scientists.

Second, the editor of Remote Sensing resigned and disassociated himself from a skeptical paper co-authored  by University of Alabama Climate Scientist Roy Spencer after an avalanche of criticism by “warmists.

The author believes that the Remote Sensing editor’s action was bizarre and unprofessional. He adds : In all fields of scientific inquiry, journal editors base their publication decisions on reports of referees, who are supposed to be experts in the area. Presumably, in the case of the Spencer paper, referees supported its publication.  Even if there had been a negative report, good editors often publish controversial papers to open a scholarly dialog. (Can anyone think of a topic that is more controversial and more in need of open scholarly dialog than global warming

Third, the New York Times and other major media are ridiculing Texas Governor Rick Perry for saying that global warming is “not proven.” Their message: Anyone who does not sign on to global warming alarmism is an ignorant hayseed and clearly not presidential material.

Regarding the criticism of Rick Perry he says: The media is tarring  and feathering  Rick Perry, we now see,  for agreeing with Nobel laureate Giaever and a host of other prominent scientists.  I guess if Perry is a know-nothing Texas hick (or worse, a pawn of  Big Oil) so is every other scientist who dares to disagree with the IPCC Central Committee. Such intimidation  chillingly makes politicians, public figures, and scientists fearful of deviating one inch from orthodoxy.

He summarizes this situation saying: False claims of consensus and inconvertible truth reveal a political or ideological agenda wrapped in the guise of science.  The incontrovertible bad behavior of the warmists has led skeptics to suspect base motives, and who could blame them.

And I will add that this is why the skeptics suspect the base motives  of the warmist’s allies —- the mainstream media.

Read this Gregory’s full post by clicking here

cbdakota