Category Archives: Electric Vehicles

Electric Cars and Battery Systems are a Bust

Posted on September 27, 2012 | 2 comments

Despite President Obama’s boast that HE was going to bring about the era of the electric car, it isn’t happening.  Yes, he did what he could.  He hoped that by not allowing the use of the most of our Federal lands, he could short the supply of crude oil and thus drive the price of gasoline up to a point where people would have to buy electric cars. It did not work because he could not stop the States and Private owners from developing their lands.  It is now routine to see new supplies of natural gas and crude oil being brought on-line.  He tried to do it by massive infusion of tax payer’s money into electric vehicle and battery production.  But the cars being produced just aren‘t cutting it with the buying public.  The prices are too high. Limited vehicle range coupled with long recharge times are not helping win them over either.  A lot of the EV problems can be attributed to their batteries which are too big and heavy, cost too much and have questionable reliability.

Toyota sees the writing on the wall and has announced that it is getting out of the EV business for now.  They will continue to produce and sell their popular Pris hybrid.

EV sales versus Obama’s goal   

The President’s said that he wanted 1 million EVs and hybrids on the road by 2015.  The Department of Energy released their analysis in 2011 that said 1 million was achievable.  However, sales of the hybrid Volt are a little over 20,000 since introduction in late 2010.  Sales of the EV Nissan Leaf are even smaller. See here ( https://cbdakota.wordpress.com/2012/09/11/president-obamas-pants-on-fire-acceptance-speech/)for additional discussion of 1 million cars goal from President Obama’s acceptance speech at the Democrat Convention.  Analysts from all over are saying it is time to back off this goal.

Hysteria from the Environmentalists

The documentary “Who killed the Electric Car?” was winning awards for its”brilliant detective work” demonstrating how the”evil” corporations did the 1990ty’s EVs in.  The awards were meted out by the same folks that still think the widely discredited “An Inconvenient Truth” is gospel.  It is going to be much tougher to invent a story for this round of EVs and hybrids, when the truth is that the consumers really don’t want these vehicles.  Sure, a small group wants them and they are the ones that go to the Sundance Film Festival.  They can buy a $110,000 Tesla and can afford to not make practical choices for their transportation.

Let’s see now, GM has put up $1.2 billion developing the Volt.  The Feds give a tax rebate of $7,500 to the buyer of a Volt—and they are talking about upping that figure. The dealers have been discounting the Volt to get them off their lots.  This year the factory producing the Volt has twice stopped production when the unsold inventory reached 85 days. And depending on how one does the calculation, GM loses about $50,000 on each Volt sold according to Reuters.

A new factory is being built in Tennessee to manufacture Nissan Leafs.  Nissan got a $1.5 billion low interest rate loan from the Feds for the construction. Nissan says the factory can produce 150,000 Leafs each year.  Sales of the Leaf through August this year are 4,228.  One has to wonder if Nissan Management isn’t concerned that they overbuilt this factory or perhaps even built it at all. 

And the battery maker story is even worse, in my opinion.  A123 got loans of $250 million from the Feds.  A123 was facing bankruptcy when the Wanxiang Group, one of China’s biggest auto suppliers purchased 80% ownership in the company.   Ener1 got $118 million in pledges from the Feds and another $80 million in State and local pledges.  It was declaring bankruptcy when Boris Zingarevich, a Russian businessman with ties to former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, bought them out. A123 and Ener1 are suppliers to our military as well as to the EV and hybrid manufacturers. The battery technology developed (paid for by us taxpayers) is now in the hands of the Russians and the Chinese. 

So, large amounts of money have been spent developing EVs and hybrids.  GM and probably Nissan are losing substantial amounts of money every day as they continue to produce the Volt and the Leaf.  The gasoline price is much higher than it was in the 90tys when that generation of EVs failed.  It will be very hard to generate a believable story line for a new documentary on what” killed the electric car” this time  unless they say  the customers did not want them.  Obviously that was the reason back in the 90tys, too.

Will there ever be a time for EVs?  Probably.   But it is not now.

cbdakota

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Posted in Alternative Energy, Batteries, Electric Vehicles, Energy Development, Environment, fossil fuels, Green Jobs, Off Shore Resources, Oil and Gas Exploration, Personal Automobiles, US Auto Manufacturers

President Obama’s Pants-On-Fire Acceptance Speech

Posted on September 11, 2012 | 2 comments

The President’s acceptance speech at the Democrat Convention last Thursday was a pants-on-fire moment when it came to his energy program. (There were other topics besides the energy program in that speech that also rated high on the pants-on-fire meter—but this is an energy blog.)

The President claims responsibility for the decline in the use of imported crude oil.  “In the last year alone, we cut oil imports by 1 million barrels a day, more than any administration in recent history”. There are two primary reasons for this decline. First is because the manufacturing sector is still suffering from this less than robust economy—here his claim rings true as he is responsible for this economy.  The second is that the States and Private property owners have managed to overcome his and his administration’s efforts to stymie the development of oil and natural gas fields. Yes, oil and gas production are up but not on Federal lands where the President has the “say so”.  Oil production declined 11% and natural gas declined 6% on Federal lands from fiscal year (FY) 2010 to FY 2011.  At the same time on State and Private Lands’ oil production increased by 14% and natural gas by 12% over that same period.

 He said: “…. where we develop a hundred-year supply of natural gas that’s right beneath our feet. If you choose this path, we can cut our oil imports in half by 2020 and support more than 600,000 new jobs in natural gas alone”. While he is claiming credit for the natural gas, it really is No Thanks to Obama who has sent the EPA out to find reasons to rein in (i.e., reasons to stop fracking of shale) this State and Private land activity.  

Oil and natural gas production from State and Private Lands will continue to increase and will be the driver of the US economic recovery.  Not the “green” jobs that he has been promoting.  “We have doubled our use of renewable energy, and thousands of Americans have jobs today building wind turbines and long-lasting batteries”. While Obama wants you think that wind and solar are soon to replace fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) that is not happening. Fossil fuels supplied 78% and nukes another 11% of the US energy needs in 2010.  Wind supplied about 2% and solar was barely above 0 %. That they are that much is a testimonial to the crony capitalism being practiced by the Federal government by subsidizing the capital cost of renewables installation. This practice leaves the rate payers holding the bag for the high cost of the electricity that renewables create.   It looks like the US will be joining most of the rest of the world that have become disillusioned with wind and solar when Congress doesn’t renew the subsidies next year.  Adding to their dismal performance is the fact that for every new Kw of wind and solar power, a corresponding amount of fossil fuel supplied energy must be built because wind and solar are too unreliable (the wind blows sometimes and not at others and we know the sun is not always shining) for the nation’s power grid to rely upon.  So not only are these unreliable renewables not competitively priced, the global warmers don’t get a reduction in CO2 emissions.

“After 30 years of inaction, we raised fuel standards so that by the middle of the next decade, cars and trucks will go twice as far on a gallon of gas”. Despite the implication that he has accomplished something, this new standard is in effective 2025 and there are many reasons to question if it can be met. This will only be realized if significant numbers of electric vehicles replace gasoline based vehicles.  And how is that program going? The hybrid Chevy Volt, the leading US manufactured vehicle, has sold through August about 13,170 making it unlikely they will meet the 2012 forecast of 45,000. The Volt is brought to you by Government General Motors (GM).  Through August, the best-selling all-electric car, the Nissan Leaf, had sold 4,228 vehicles versus the 2012 forecast of 20,000.  The electric vehicles are neither affordable nor efficient for the overwhelming majority of consumers who commute for work.  The Volt’s selling price is about $45,000 before the Government tax incentive of $7,500.  Even at that price, a recent report says: “Nearly two years after the introduction of the path-breaking plug-in hybrid, GM is still losing as much as $49,000 on each Volt it builds, according to estimates provided to Reuters by industry analysts and manufacturing experts.”  A little perspective, the projected US  2012 sales of vehicles is about 14 million.  There are something like 250 million registered vehicles in the US.  Even if the Volt were to sell 45,ooo it is drop-in-the-bucket. 

He says that man-made global warming is “not a hoax“.  He is wrong.  His EPA is writing regulations that will imposed a “cap and trade” program on the use of fossil fuels.  Cap and Trade failed attempts at passage in Congress.  Here he is usurping the legislative role of Congress.

The President’s energy program is a threat to all of us, and especially our children who are going to have to pay higher energy cost while having to cope with the massive debt this Administration has racked up.  

cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, Alternative Energy, cap and trade, CO2, Domestic Energy, Electric Vehicles, Energy Development, EPA, fossil fuels, Government Regulations, Green Jobs, Nuclear Energy, Oil and Gas Exploration, Personal Automobiles, US Auto Manufacturers, Windpower

Volt Sales UP But Little Likelihood Of Meeting Sales Forecast

Posted on September 6, 2012 | Leave a comment

GM reports that more than 2500 Volts were sold in August.  They also announced that they would stop production of the Volt for a month.  Volt production capacity is way in excess of current sales.  This is the second stoppage of Volt production this year. Total Volt sales through August appear to be about 13,170 which are well short of the 2012 forecast of 45,000 hybrids.

Nissan’s Leaf sales in August were 685 EVs versus 395 last month. Through August, sales have amounted to 4228 vehicles.  With four months left to go in the year, the auto media reporters are beginning to question Nissan’s many statements that they will sell more than 20,000 this year.  A penetrating insight by these reporters –Snark.

I guess it is late reporting of sales or losses thereof, but it is hard to make an exact accounting of the monthly sales figures.  The numbers change a lot. The auto industry accountants must have attended the same University as did the ones who issue the weekly national employment/unemployment figures.  Each week the old forecast is amended.

cbdakota

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Posted in Alternative Energy, Batteries, Domestic Energy, Electric Vehicles, fossil fuels, Green Jobs, Personal Automobiles, US Auto Manufacturers

FISKER HAS ANOTHER FIRE

Posted on August 14, 2012 | Leave a comment

Another Fisker Karma fire, this time in Anaheim, California.   The owner had driven to a grocery store where he parked the car and went inside.  The fire occured in the left-front side of the vehicle.   Fisker says the fire was not caused by the battery pack which has been implicated in the previous fires.  Fisker has hired a firm to investigate the cause.

This youtube posting captured the firemen putting out the blaze: http://youtu.be/wzQiY4eUygA

This photo was taken after the fire was extinguished:

Photo from USAToday.

What ever the cause,  this is not good news for Fisker.

cbdakota

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Posted in Alternative Energy, Batteries, Electric Vehicles, fossil fuels, Green Jobs, Personal Automobiles

Gasoline Price and Vehicle Fuel Economy Correlate

Posted on August 3, 2012 | Leave a comment

The WardsAuto Fuel Economy Index compares the cost of gasoline opposite the average fuel-economy (miles per gallon—mpg) of new vehicles sold each month.   The new vehicle fuel economy peaked in March at 24.1mpg.  It fell to 23.6 mpg in June, the last data point available.  This drop corresponds to the drop in gasoline prices over the past three months.  The chart shown below shows a strong correlation of fuel price and t the fuel economy the car buyers are settling for.

Wards cautions to not assume that the car buyer’s are fickle but it is hard not to draw that conclusion.  Wards cites fleet purchases of Toyota vehicles in March as Toyota was trying to catch up on the losses they encountered in 2011 when the tsunami shutdown a lot of Japanese industry.

Wards notes that the vehicles fuel economy by region looked this way in June: Overall, Asian auto makers combined for a 26 mpg (9.0 L/100 km) rating, followed by the European brands’ 22.8 mpg (10.3 L/100 km) and the Detroit Three’s 21.2 mpg (11.1 L/100 km).

The Detroit Big Three do move a lot of pickup trucks so that may explain the differences in fuel economy.

To read more click here.

cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, CAFE Standards, Domestic Energy, Electric Vehicles, Environment, EPA, fossil fuels, Government Regulations, Personal Automobiles, US Auto Manufacturers

Volt And Leaf July Sales And How Hybrids Are Outselling EVs

Posted on August 2, 2012 | Leave a comment

Nissan Leaf July sales fell to 395 from 535 in the previous month.   The Volt sales were up slightly in July at 1849 against the 1760 in the previous month.  According to Edmunds.com, plug-in hybrids are outselling EVs by 3 to 1.   The public’s choice of hybrids has not gone unnoticed by the automobile manufacturers.  From thedailygreen.com the following are the 2012 offerings of hybrids:

2012 HYBRIDS BY MANUFACTURER-PRICE AND ECONOMY

MODEL PRICE $ CITY ECONO MPG HIGHWAY ECONO MPG
Toyota Prius 23,520 51 48
Toyota Prius V 27,160 42 38
Chevy Volt 40,280 95 90
Ford Fusion Hybrid 28,600 41 36
Hyundai Sonata Hybrid 25,795 35 40
Infiniti M35h 50,000-55,000 27 32
Toyota Camry Hybrid 27,050 31 35
Honda Civic Hybrid 24,050 44 44
Honda Insight 19,000 40 43
Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid 51,665 20 23
Volkswagen Touareg Supercharged Hybrid 61,110 20 24
Toyota Highlander Hybrid 38,140 28 28
Ford Escape Hybrid 32,320 34 31
Porsche Cayenne Hybrid 67,700 20 24
Porsche Panamera S Hybrid 95,000 18 27
Lexus CT 200h 29,120 43 40
Lexus GS 450h 58,950 22 25
Lexus HS 250h 36,330 35 34
Mercedes-Benz S400 Hybrid 91,000 19 26
Mercedes-Benz ML450 Hybrid 55,790 16 20
Lincoln MKZ Hybrid 34,645 41 36
BMW ActiveHybrid7 97,000-101,000 17 24

About this chart, things change.  Prices and EPA miles per gallon (MPG) may be different, as time has passed since the chart data was assembled.

To find out how well these vehicles are selling, would require more time than I want to put in.  A reasonable guess is that not a big volume for most of them.  But on the upside, Edmunds reports that Toyota is on track to sell 200,000 Prius sub-brand cars in the US this year.  That is impressive.

cbdakota

 

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Posted in Batteries, CAFE Standards, Electric Vehicles, EPA, fossil fuels, Personal Automobiles, US Auto Manufacturers

Volt: Refund Policy Allows For Tax Credit Abuse and Other Issues

Posted on July 19, 2012 | 1 comment

General Motors (GM) provides a 60-day money back policy for all Chevy models.   So if you buy a Volt you can claim a $7500 federal tax credit.  Then 59 days later, return it and get your money back.  But, you may get to keep the tax credit.  According to a posting by Mark Modica, the IRS tax form for plug-in vehicle credit does not have a minimum time requirement for the buyer to own their qualified vehicle.   Ok, so it is doubtful that anyone will buy a series of Volts in order to accumulate tax credits.  But this is just another glitch in the Volt epic.

So how is the Volt doing now as opposed to how GM felt about the Volt in the days before the first sales?  In a November, 2010 posting in WardsAuto the following was reported:

In 2012, the automaker plans to reach production capacity for the Volt at its Detroit-Hamtramck, MI, assembly plant here with about 45,000 units annually for U.S. consumption. Including export to markets such as Canada and China, capacity could reach 60,000 cars annually.

Well, they are missing the 2012 sales forecast by a wide margin.  Sales were not too good even when gasoline prices approached $4 per gallon earlier this year (2012). Will it get any better if the price of gasoline continues it’s current decline?

And in that same WardsAuto posting the following was reported:

General Motors Co. executives call the new-for-’11 Chevrolet Volt a key first step in the electrification of all its products, while also confirming long-held assumptions the car will not make money in the first years of production. However, the typical all-new vehicle program for an automaker averages $1 billion. Given its sophisticated technology, the Volt likely will cost much more to develop, build and sell.

It can’t be making money now if 45,000 units are just breakeven.  Somehow a lot of cars will have to be sold to amortize the $1 billion cost of development.

cbdakota

 

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Posted in AGW, CAFE Standards, Electric Vehicles, fossil fuels, Personal Automobiles, US Auto Manufacturers

Volt And Leaf June Sales

Posted on July 3, 2012 | 1 comment

The good news is that Chevrolet Volt sales for June were 1,760 versus the previous month’s Volt sales of 1,680.  The bad news is that at the end of June there were 5,300 Volts in stock, an 82 day-supply.  The Volt production line has been idled twice so far this year because of low demand.

Meanwhile the news is not particularly good for the Nissan Leaf because June sales were only 535 and that brings the year-to-date total sales to 3,418.  Nissan still insists that they will sell 20,000 Leafs this year.

cbdakota

 

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Posted in AGW, Alternative Energy, Batteries, Electric Vehicles, fossil fuels, Green Jobs, Personal Automobiles, US Auto Manufacturers

Senators Ask If Fisker Loan Is Appropriate

Posted on June 30, 2012 | Leave a comment

Senator Thune (R-SD) and Grassley (R-IA) have asked Energy Secretary Steven Chu if the $529 million loan granted in 2010 to Fisker is appropriate.   Fisker has received $193 million to date with the remainder being held by the Energy Department while they review the status of certain (undisclosed) benchmarks that Fisker is required to meet.

Thune and Grassley question why monies should be given to Fisker at all when Fisker is partly owned by Qatar.  The Qatar Investment Authority– a branch of the Qatar government–owns about 10% to 15% of Fisker according to Wiki.    Dr. Kamel Maamria, head of the General Investments Portfolio and Executive Director of Qatar Holding LLC, is a member of Fisker’s Board of Directors. The Senators asked in the letter: “Why should the American taxpayer have to accept the credit risk of a company owned by a foreign government?”

According to AutoblogGreen: ”Energy Department spokesman Damien LaVera argues the loan was an appropriate part of the federal government’s effort to help boost fleetwide fuel economy and said Fisker’s delays are “common for start-ups,” according to the report.

Doesn’t sound like Mr. LaVera answered the question.

cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, Alternative Energy, Domestic Energy, Electric Vehicles, Personal Automobiles

Washington Post versus Bain Capital

Posted on June 25, 2012 | Leave a comment

This is posting is not about man-made global warming.   Ok, so why am I posting it,  well because I question the Washington Post’s (WP) understanding of business and also their distorted attempts to paint Mitt Romney, the Republican Candidate for President of the US as a destroyer of US businesses.

I read and report on “alternatively powered” vehicles for this blog, as my regular readers know.  In doing so, I come across a lot of articles about gasoline/diesel powered vehicles.  Not to long ago, General Motors (GM) announced that they were going to build Cadillacs in China.  It seems that up-scale cars are selling pretty well in China.  Sales of the US made Caddies have been encouraging and GM concludes that they will increase their sales if they manufacture the Caddies in China.  Now think about the Toyota and BMW and Nissan vehicles that are being made in the US.  GM wants to do the same thing in China that these companies are doing here in the US.   Sounds like a smart move to me.

The WP published a story on Bain Capital, the business in which Romney had been a partner.  The newspaper’s pitch is that Bain has  “outsourced’ some small US businesses or part of their operation. Because of this, the WP wants to persuade their readers that Romney will be bad for the US business.  This WP article has been taken apart by James Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute.  Pethokoukis shows that much of what the Washington Post reported is inaccurate and in some places just plain wrong. But equally as important is that industries across the globe move some manufacturing out of their homeland at times in order to be competitive.  If the business is not competitive, it goes out of business.

So here is the hypocrisy: General Motors (often called Government Motors) is essentially a branch of the US government as a result of the bail-out several years ago by this administration.   The companies that the Washington Post uses to impugn Bain are so small compared to GM there can be no comparison.  Yet if the WP feels strongly about the issue of outsourcing, why do they not take on GM?  I guess that is easy to figure out.

cbdakota

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Posted in Alternative Energy, Electric Vehicles, Energy Development, Personal Automobiles, US Auto Manufacturers, US Manufacturing Companies