If 2035 Car Sales are 100% EV, 83% of All Cars on the Road Will Still be Gasoline or Diesel Fueled.

President Biden has called for 50% of all new car and light truck sales be Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) by 2030. Even more draconian laws from States like California say:

“…….. all new cars sold in the state by 2035 be free of greenhouse gas emissions like carbon dioxide”. 

That means no gasoline vehicle sales can be made in California after 2035.

What is the outcome of these proposals that only allow ZEV to be made? The Fuels Institute, a proponent of the man-made global warming, posted “Reducing carbon emissions effectively-now and tomorrow” has the answer.   The charts premise is that of California’s pathway, meaning 100% of new car sales are ZEVs and no new fossil fuel powered cars can be sold.

As the chart shows, in a hypothetical scenario in which all U.S. light duty vehicle sales are required to be ZEV in 2035, the market would likely only convert 16.5% of vehicles in operation to ZEV by that time. This would leave 83.5% of vehicles in 2035 still operating primarily on liquid fuels used in combustion engines with a potential life expectancy of longer than 20 years. This means that BEVs and a cleaner electricity grid will not be able to significantly cut transportation-related CO2e emissions for many years to come, resulting in increased atmospheric concentrations that will linger for another 100-plus years

It might be possible for the manufacturers to make enough ZEVs, but it may not make any difference if the manufacturers can. The cost, the range anxiety, the charging time, fires, etc. have turned off the common man buying ZEVs so far.


3 responses to “If 2035 Car Sales are 100% EV, 83% of All Cars on the Road Will Still be Gasoline or Diesel Fueled.

  1. Khalifornistan will start looking like Castro’s Cuba. Vintage 1945 Packards held together by shade tree mechanics fabbing parts to keep the buggy on the road. Bootleg gasoline in Jerry cans.

  2. Will California have border crossings everywhere?. What is going to stop a local going to say Texas to bye a more affordable ICE vehicle. Will they have a EV police force prosecuting citizens under new draconian laws made to force people out of ICE cars even though they can’t afford BEV’s , making the second class citizens.

    • I don’t know except that the Texas car may someday have to be licensed in California. But I know that they will try to keep it off the road.
      Before I retired, I had to deal with CARB. We had just driven our methanol fueled bus from the California side of the golden gate to a restaurant loaded with notable citizens. We were showing that methanol was a viable fuel. I was parked at the table of CARB people. They were unimpressed and indicated they had no interest in What we wanted to do.


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