Should Anyone Believe This New Arctic Sea Ice Total Melt Prediction?


The Science News recently posted a new study titled “Observed Arctic Sea-Ice Loss Directly Follows Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions”.  Well, blaming CO2 is not new and CO2 has been the villain in many previous reports about the loss of Arctic sea ice.   This study says the ice will be gone by 2040 or so.   It is based on the author’s new computer model program.


Al Gore is the warmer’s 800 lb gorilla. How do I know this?  Because Leonardo DiCaprio, the Hollywood jetsetter, is reported to have said he had a talk with Gore and that is what convinced him to become an active spokesman for the catastrophic global warming theory.

Should DiCaprio look to Gore for direction?  Lets look at Gore’s batting average. Gore has made a lot of predictions (largely failed). Like many other warmer, he has predicted the demise of the Arctic sea ice.  Gore said “the Arctic will be ice free by 2013”. He made this claim in print in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009.  And it didn’t happen. In fact the Arctic ice cap’s surface area increased by more than 25% in 2012-2013. The much-larger Antarctic ice cap also increased, by about 5% using NASA data. NASA, which is a fully warmist institution peddling the “CO2 hypothesis”, had been forced to admit the Antarctic ice sheet was at its largest since it started regular satellite monitoring in 1979.

Gore is not alone in making these predictions.  A small sampling from a previous Climate Change Sanity posting titled “CAGW PREDICTIONS—ZOMBIE AND OTHER” One section of the posting is melting ice.

MELTING ICE  (Zombies*** reside here.)

Arctic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000. – Los Angeles Times – May 16, 1972

“According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic  Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015″. “And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that,” Professor Louis Fortier – Université Laval, Director ArcticNet – November 16, 2007

NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions. – National Geographic  Dec. 12, 2007

Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice. Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years. Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss. “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC. “So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.” Professor Maslowski’s group, which includes co-workers at Nasa and the Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences (PAS), is well known for producing models that are in advance of other teams. – BBC Dec. 12, 2007

“We’re seeing the reality of a lot of the North Pole starting to evaporate, and we could get to a tipping point. Because if it evaporates to a certain point – they have lanes now where ships can go that couldn’t ever sail through before. And if it gets to a point where it evaporates too much, there’s a lot of tundra that’s being held down by that ice cap… -Rep.(D) Henry Waxman, chair of House Energy and Commerce Committee, April 2009

Arctic warming has become so dramatic that the North Pole may melt this summer (2008), report scientists studying the effects of climate change in the field. “We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],” David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker. – National Geographic News June 20, 2008

“There is a possibility of an ice-free Arctic Ocean for a short period in summer perhaps as early as 2015. This would mean the disappearance of multi-year ice, as no sea ice would survive the summer melt season….Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Report – 2009

“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,” he said, pulling out a battered laptop to show a diagram explaining his calculations, which he calls “the Arctic death spiral”. – David Vaughan Glaciologist & IPCC scientist – Financial Times Magazine Aug 8, 2012

Granted, when making projections, it’s good to have sophisticated models. I don’t claim to have used those, but I’ve got a good eye and by the looks of it, sea ice will be gone in September 2014. -Sam Carana Arctic News Sep 21, 2012

For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean….” – Paul Beckwith Sierra Club – March 23, 2013


***Zombie predictions are those that the warmers make that are eventually proven to be wrong.  Then they make a new prediction, bringing it back to life once again—– it may still be just walking dead, soon to be again proven to be wrong.

However, this new zombie prediction of 2040 or so, is 24 or more years away.  These are much safer predictions in that they may never be proven wrong with in predicter’s life time.


A compilation of other failed warmer predictions can be seen here and here.


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