Solar Cycle 24 Is Underperforming Its Predecessors

Solar Cycle 24 is underperforming its predecessors, Cycles 21, 22 and 23. The chart below, using sunspots as proxy for solar activity, shows the progress for Cycles 21, 22 and 23 over their nominal 11 year life cycle. Solar Cycle 24’s current progress is clearly less active than 21, 22 or 23. This level of activity, if it continues at its current pace, will be the least active Solar Cycle in the last 100 years.The chart maker is Solen. (Click on the chart for clarity.)


How much longer will Cycle 24 go before its maximum activity occurs and quiets down? Experts are forecasting that in the first part of 2013. When the maximum occurs the Sun’s poles switch. So if you want to make your own guess, lets look at how close the poles are to switching right now. The chart below records the position of the North and South poles with time. The three previous Cycles polar locations are shown and you can see when the poles swapped sides. Cycle 24 poles are drawing near that now and it seems likely they will switch soon. If so, it will be a very weak–solar activity–Cycle. (Click chart for clarity.)

Solar Polar Field – Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) – 1976 to Present

Solar experts are predicting that Cycle 25 will be less active than 24. In the past, several Cycles with such low solar activity were associated with cooling global temperatures. The global temperature has plateaued for the past 15 to 16 years. The Warmers say that it has to go at least 20 years to disprove their CO2 man-made global warming theory. We may be heading for a period that will be much longer than 20 years of plateaued or even falling global temperatures. This should send the CO2 theory to the trash bin, but it does not necessarily bode well for mankind. Cooler global temperatures have not provided the era of plenty we now enjoy. Food production will likely be less than optimal and that can’t be a good thing with the continued growth of global population.

2 responses to “Solar Cycle 24 Is Underperforming Its Predecessors

  1. The danger here is that greenhouse gas induced global warming may be temporarily (several decades) canceled by variability in solar activity. This can result in people not believing the effects only to be hit harder when the sun returns to normal.

  2. Yes that is the real danger; low solar activity masking an increase in global temperatures due to AGW.

    “This can result in people not believing the effects only to be hit harder when the sun returns to normal.”

    This is clearly the case for the author of this article. Sunspot activity has been clearly decreasing over at least the last 40 years (check the Solar Polar Field graph above), which should have resulted in cooler temperatures. But no, temperatures have not decreased, they’ve increased, just as scientists have been stating for decades.

    No, check NASA’s graphs of global average temperature over the last 2 decades. No decrease there, when according to the author’s logic there should have been a decrease.

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