Dark Ages Redux


Dark Ages Redux—The Issue

It becomes clearer everyday that President Obama and his allies hope to kill free enterprise and substitute socialism in its place.  One of the major elements in this economic suicide plan is to impose fossil fuel use restrictions on our nation so draconian that the US economy will become third world.    Fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) are the lifeblood of our economy.   Without them, we would revert to an existence similar to that “enjoyed” in the 17th century.  But, you have heard that there are many forms of alternate fuels just waiting to replace the fossil fuels.   With the possible exception of nuclear energy, the others are just pretenders without the practical or economic ability to replace fossil fuels.

Obama has proposed that laws be set in place that will reduce use of fossil fuels to curb the carbon dioxide that results from combustion that releases the energy in these fuels.  He and his allies in Congress want to set the maximum use, in the year 2050, of these fuels to no more than 20% of that used in 1990.   These reductions will begin no later than 2012.   

Lets see what this means:

Year 1990 2007 2030 2050
US energy use Total Q btus* 86.6 101.6 113.4 f/c 125 f/c**
    Fossil Fuels Q btus* 72.3 86.2 93.1  f/c 14.5***
    Renewable Fuel Q btu*    6.2   6.8    9.0  f/c     ?
    Nuclear   Q btu*    6.1   8.4    9.4  f/c     ?
    Fossil fuels as % of Total   83.5 86.4 82.1 11.6
US Population,  millions of people^^ 249 302 375 420
Per Capita fossil fuel use, millions of btus 290 285 248 35

Actual and forecast  annual energy use from US Energy Information Administration 1990 through 2030.

* quadrillion btus;  **Author’s business as usual forecast;  ***Obama’s maximum allowable annual fossil fuel energy by 2050; ^^ Census Bureau

From the table above, in the year 1990, US consumption of energy was 86.6 quadrillion BTUs of which 85% or 72.3 quadrillion BTUs were from fossil fuels.   Calculation shows that 20% of 72.3 quadrillion BTUs is equal to 14.5 quadrillion BTUs and that would be the maximum usage in the year 2050 according to the Obama’s plan.  If that’s not staggering enough, lets consider the population effect. In 1990 the census counted 248.7 million people in the US.  The forecast by the Census Bureau for 2050 is 419.9 million people that is an increase of nearly 70%.  So the proposed plan is for 2050 use of only 20% of the fossil fuels used in 1990 despite a population that is 70% larger than it was in 1990.  This tells us that the Obama cut in fossil fuel use  is greater than 80%,. When you consider the population increase, the cut is actually 90%.   Expressed as per capita usage,  fossil fuels use would drop from  285 million btus per capita in 2007  to 35 million btus in 2050.

But that is not all that President Obama has promised.  He said in his Feb. 24,  ‘09 address to a joint session of Congress that “ we will double this nation’s supply of renewable energy in the next three years.”   This is appears to be unlikely to happen.   If you break down the Renewable Fuels contribution of 6.8 quad BTUs in 2007 from the above table it looks like this :

Renewable Fuels     quad. BTUs                                2007                2012             2030

            Wind                                                                      0.32

            Solar                                                                      0.08

            Biofuels (ethanol principally)                        1.02

            Hydroelectric                                                      2.43

            Geothermal                                                          0.35

            Wood and Waste                                                2.60        

Total                                    quad. BTUs                        6.80                13.2 *              9.0     

Hydro, geothermal and wood and waste make up 80% the energy supplied by renewable fuels.  Hydro (damming rivers) has been pretty well exploited and unlikely to see much growth.  No one expects any significant growth in geothermal or wood and waste.  So a (*) doubling of total renewable energy in three years to 13.2 quad BTUs will essentially require an increase in wind, solar and biofuels from 1.4 quad BTUs to 8.2 quad BTUs ( a 585% increase).   If, of course, he restates the goal to that of just wind, solar and biofuels,  it would be from 1.4 to 2.8.  That is probably unlikely too.

The goal is unrealistic. Note that the EIA forecast for renewables is only 9.8 quad BTUs in 2030.  

But let’s talk about if we should be doing anything at all. 

First of all, the man-made global warming scare is a scam.  Yes, the globe has been warming, but this is typical of the Earth’s natural climatic cycle which has gone on for millions of years.  Ice followed by warming followed by ice, etc.   The current  cycle began at the end of the last ice age some thousands of years ago.  Gases and vapors in the Earth’s atmosphere do cause part of the warming.   But the contention that CO2 drives the temperature has been disproven by the examination of ice core samples that showing CO2 lags temperature up and down.  Hence CO2 follows temperature change.

The global temperatures have been on a downward trend since 1998.   This cooling has taken place while CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere has  been increasing.   The Sun is in a period of relative quiet which seems to validate the idea that the Sun, not man, is the primary force behind the Earth’s climate. Thus restricting CO2 emissions will not have a major effect of global temperatures

Let us also consider that eighty percent of the world’s population will not stop trying to bring their citizens up to some sort of parity in per capita consumption with the rich 20%.  These countries, such as China, India and Brazil with their vast populations have indigenous sources of fossil fuels that they will use.   China’s CO2 emissions exceed those of the United States thus making China the No. 1 emitter.  These countries with huge populations are not going to stop using fossil fuel regardless of any  treaties that we Americans, Europeans and Japanese come up with to restrict our use.  The likely outcome of restricting our use is to see our jobs sent to their nations.

Future postings will discuss these topics in detail. 

cbdakota

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Birds of a Feather


I guess if you polled Jim Jones’s Georgetown contingent about drinking poisoned Kool Ade they would all say it was a good idea.  In a similar vein,   if you polled 11 authors of the Summary Report for Policy Makers, a part of the  IPCC Report on Climate Change,  they would all agree that scary things are going to happen because of man-made global warming.  Reuters did just that and sends it out as NEWS!!!   And the 11, by gum,  were prepared to provide scary stories that would even outdo Al Gore.  

The Summary, by the way, was written to match political needs and was completed before completion of the scientific part of the IPCC Report.  In fact the science part had to be modified to match the already written Summary.  This should provide extra confidence that these 11 are dispassionate observers with no preconceived beliefs.

Read the Reuters poll here:     

The New York Times did a similar story.  The idea was to see if “tipping points” could be identified and defined.  Well we all know about tipping points because Prince Charles has one.  His tipping point happens about 100 months from now.  But then it is not too specific and I don’t guess a lot of the AGWers are jumping on the Prince’s bandwagon.    My favorite part of the NYT article is this quote:

“There are real tipping points out there, and they might be politically useful at first, but if you’re too specific about particular thresholds that’s a quick trip to lost credibility,” said Stephen H. Schneider, a climatologist at Stanford University who said he could point back to some overly precise climate predictions of his own in the 1970’s as evidence.”

So, the message is to say there are tipping points but don’t tie yourself down with specifics.   This good advice needs to be passed on to those who every now and then predict the end of the world.     

You can read the article  

Global Cooling But They Don’t Know Why


A new scientific study was recently announced that found that global temperatures are not rising.  Well, we knew that but the authors of the study find this troubling because:

“This is nothing like anything we’ve seen since 1950,” Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee said. “Cooling events since then had firm causes, like eruptions or large-magnitude La Ninas. This current cooling doesn’t have one.”

Instead, Swanson and colleague Anastasios Tsonis think a series of climate processes have aligned, conspiring to chill the climate. In 1997 and 1998, the tropical Pacific Ocean warmed rapidly in what Swanson called a “super El Nino event.” It sent a shock wave through the oceans and atmosphere, jarring their circulation patterns into unison.

So they think they know why the Earth cooled before but they really don’t know what is causing this cooling except to speculate that “warming caused this cooling”.   But they are certain of one thing:

Swanson thinks the trend could continue for up to 30 years. But he warned that it’s just a hiccup, and that humans’ penchant for spewing greenhouse gases will certainly come back to haunt us.

“When the climate kicks back out of this state, we’ll have explosive warming,” Swanson said. “Thirty years of greenhouse gas radiative forcing will still be there and then bang, the warming will return and be very aggressive.” 

Now this sounds like statements from people that don’t really know what causes climate change.   And this change is so profound that the cooling may last for 30 years!!!! We can be certain, however, of what they do know.  They  know they will loose their gravy train of study money if this cooling continues.   

But more importantly,  this is the same crowd that is trying to get us agree to killing our economy based on their computer forecasts.  Computers forecasts that did not see this cooling coming.  These same computers that are predicting future catastrophes if we don’t drastically cut fossil fuel use.  How can anyone believe them?

The article cited in this blog can be found here:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29469287/  

Gore’s “The Climate Project” Spreads Fear not Science.


In 2006 Al Gore began a program called The Climate Project.  The objective of the program was to train 1000 individuals to make presentations of his “An Inconvenient Truth” in their local community.  Each trainee committed to making a minimum of ten presentations over a one year period following the completion of their training.   This program is underway and it is too early to tell how effective it will ultimately be.  But The Climate Project will probably pass on more disinformation than any other speaking tour since PT Barnum stormed the country.    It scientific foundation is An Inconvenient Truth and the additional distortions of science Gore regularly produces.  

 

To give you an example of what is being presented to unsuspecting audiences was reported in the South Asian Focus, an information source for the “Brampton’s South Asian Community”.  Brampton is the third largest city in the Greater Toronto, Canada area. The presentation was made by Jaipaul Massey-Singh one of “250 Canadians personally trained by Al Gore in 2008 to spread the message of An Inconvenient Truth……”

 

Here are some of the things Mr Massey-Singh  is quoted to have said:

“Right now, the earth is cited to have an average temperature of 15 Celsius–and if we do nothing to reduce gas emissions, it’s estimated it will warm up by roughly 4 to 5 degrees over the next 40 years.”

 

          “If we increase the average temperature by 3 degrees, there is only a 1 degree increase in at the equator but up to 7 degree increase at the north and south poles”, he said. “This will accelerate an alarming rate of thaw, which will then cause the earth’s temperature to rise even further by decreasing the area of ice that reflects the sun’s rays.”

 

The Glaciers will melt, the atmosphere will become warmer and the oceans will heat up and react by producing major storms–like Hurricane Katrina.  There will be extreme flooding and drought, and movement of water through the atmosphere will become unpredictable.”

 

“If this happens”, he explained, “by the year 2050 roughly 400 million people on the planet could be displaced due to an estimated 20 foot-rise in sea level.  Water will overtake the land mass, regions of the world as we know now will virtually disappear, and polar wildlife will be in danger.”

 

Fortunately he has some ways(???) to save us from these catastrophes,  which he outlined:

 

“If you bring your own mug to Tim Hortons and turn off a few light bulbs, it’s going to make a difference.”

 

“If North America can reduce even a couple of hundred tons of greenhouse gas emissions a year, there is the potential for stabilization.”

 

Mr Massey-Singh repeats Gore’s refuted canards about 20 foot sea levels,  

large increases in global temperature,  and global climate change creating major hurricanes for example. Unfortunately, although it was not reported,  the audience probably also got the rest of the Gore fallacies such as history showing that an increase  in carbon dioxide is followed by an increase in temperature.  

 

The United States Energy Information Administration estimates the total man-made CO2 emissions in 2007 from US sources was 7,282,000,000 metric tons which was an increase of 103,000,000 metric tons CO2 emission over the previous year.   A far cry from a “…..couple of hundred tons of greenhouse gas emissions a year…..”.  

 

This Gore group is dangerous.  It is spreading fear and not science.  Not surprising,  the leader (Gore) is not a scientist, and The Climate Project executives are not either.  Like nearly every other Green Group,  they are lead largely by lawyers.  

 

See this site  http://www.southasianfocus.ca/community/article/64852

 

A related story was The UK’s Guardian on line blog.  They carried statements by the experts at the top British climate research center that warned “Apocalyptic climate predictions’ mislead the public, say experts.”   These experts “launched a blistering attack on scientific colleagues and journalists who exaggerate the effects of global warming.”  

 

This warning was aimed at the believers, and we skeptics too.  But if exaggeration about global warming were dynamite we skeptics could not make a loud bang while the man made global warming believers (Al Gore near the top of that list) would sound like a megaton hydrogen bomb. 

 

Unfortunately,  Mr Massey-Singh probably believes he is spreading the written word and surely doesn’t realize that he is really spreading apocalyptic fiction.

Sun and Climate Change


A PDF of the essay on Climate Change is available by email if you wish to leave your address.  Email to cbdakota@comcast.net


Carbon Emission Rules–Written by the EPA

The shaky economic situation in the US  seems to be persuading President Obama to back away from his  campaign pledge to have Cap and Trade legislation enacted to regulate CO2 emissions.  Opinion of the followers of the legislative bodies believe that such legislation could not be passed this year or maybe even next year.   And if the global climate  continues to experience a cooling phase,  maybe the country will escape the detrimental effect of such legislation.  Further, more and more of the  scientific gurus are arriving at the conclusion that CO2 restrictions are wrong-headed and the “consensus” is disappearing (if it ever existed).   So we skeptics can relax.  Wrong!!!  

In the Massachusetts v. EPA court case,   the Supremes said that the EPA had the authority to regulate CO2 if it was a danger to  the environment.  Bush’s EPA did not find that CO2 was a danger to the environment,  but the Obama EPA will find that it is a danger.  Obama’s nominee to head the EPA is Lisa Jackson.   She is on record as believing CO2 needs to be regulated.  

Once again the judicial branch has assumed the powers of the legislative branch.  The Court has taken the people out of deciding what should be done if anything about CO2.    The disaster that is known as the Kyoto Treaty has provided enough experience to show that in good times the signatories to that Treaty were unable to meet their commitments for CO2 reduction.  As the Europe moved forward this fall to set up the next Kyoto-like treaty forecast to be in effect by 2012,  they were unable to come to any agreement because they knew if would wreck their economies.  Germany was agreeable to almost any terms as long as their heavy manufacturing industry was excluded.  Fat chance that a new treaty would have any meaning if everyone got to exclude their heavy industry or their coal plants as most Eastern European Nations want to do.  And now with their economies in the tank like ours,  I will bet that no matter what the US might want to do,  thfty wont follow.

Its apparent that the legislators  who should decide to or not to “cap and trade” or “tax carbon” wont have the courage to do so as they can bet they will be voted out in the next election if they did.   But many of them see a way to get more control over your life by letting the EPA do their dirty work.   

One of the Republican House of Representatives wants to introduce legislation that will show that the Legislative Branch does not want CO2 to considered a “pollutant” which is endangering the climate.   We should all urge our Congressional representatives to get behind this move.  If the Democrats don’t they will be on record as favoring anything the EPA cooks up just as surely as if they had voted for it.

CLIMATE CHANGE SANITY


OBVIOUSLY THE AWGs ARE WORRIED.

Why do the proponents of manmade global warming feel it is necessary to shut down any discussion by the skeptics?   In Australia they considered taking away the citizenship of skeptics.  British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett publicly demands that media outlets refuse to grant “skeptics” space, on the grounds that they are just like Islamic terrorists.  Skeptics are receiving death treats.   Anyone that  speaks-up is obviously paid by the oil companies.  ETC.