February sales of the Volt and the Leaf were slightly higher than in January. January Volt sales were 1140 and February sales were 1629 while Leaf’s numbers were January 650 and February 653. The recent rise in gas prices will probably result in an increase sales in the next several months.
cbdakota
Tesla planned, for NY Times writer John Broder, a trip using their model S top of the line all-electric car. The plan was to test out Tesla’s newly “electrified I 95 corridor” that has two charging stations along the way. The idea here is that these two station should allow for a trip from Washington DC to the Boston area. Things did not work out.
The model S is a $101,000 vehicle with a 85 Kilowatt-hour battery that Tesla reports has a range of 300 miles between charges. The EPA rates the range at 265 miles. The distance from Broder’s home to the first charging station in Newark, DE was about 114 miles and the distance to the second charging station in Milford, CN is about 200 miles. So the trip should be easy. Below is a NYTimes graphic of the trip. The numbers represent the each new phase of the journey.
Despite President Obama’s boast that HE was going to bring about the era of the electric car, it isn’t happening. Yes, he did what he could. He hoped that by not allowing the use of the most of our Federal lands, he could short the supply of crude oil and thus drive the price of gasoline up to a point where people would have to buy electric cars. It did not work because he could not stop the States and Private owners from developing their lands. It is now routine to see new supplies of natural gas and crude oil being brought on-line. He tried to do it by massive infusion of tax payer’s money into electric vehicle and battery production. But the cars being produced just aren‘t cutting it with the buying public. The prices are too high. Limited vehicle range coupled with long recharge times are not helping win them over either. A lot of the EV problems can be attributed to their batteries which are too big and heavy, cost too much and have questionable reliability.
Toyota sees the writing on the wall and has announced that it is getting out of the EV business for now. They will continue to produce and sell their popular Pris hybrid.
EV sales versus Obama’s goal
The President’s said that he wanted 1 million EVs and hybrids on the road by 2015. The Department of Energy released their analysis in 2011 that said 1 million was achievable. However, sales of the hybrid Volt are a little over 20,000 since introduction in late 2010. Sales of the EV Nissan Leaf are even smaller. See here ( https://cbdakota.wordpress.com/2012/09/11/president-obamas-pants-on-fire-acceptance-speech/)for additional discussion of 1 million cars goal from President Obama’s acceptance speech at the Democrat Convention. Analysts from all over are saying it is time to back off this goal.
Hysteria from the Environmentalists
The documentary “Who killed the Electric Car?” was winning awards for its”brilliant detective work” demonstrating how the”evil” corporations did the 1990ty’s EVs in. The awards were meted out by the same folks that still think the widely discredited “An Inconvenient Truth” is gospel. It is going to be much tougher to invent a story for this round of EVs and hybrids, when the truth is that the consumers really don’t want these vehicles. Sure, a small group wants them and they are the ones that go to the Sundance Film Festival. They can buy a $110,000 Tesla and can afford to not make practical choices for their transportation.
Let’s see now, GM has put up $1.2 billion developing the Volt. The Feds give a tax rebate of $7,500 to the buyer of a Volt—and they are talking about upping that figure. The dealers have been discounting the Volt to get them off their lots. This year the factory producing the Volt has twice stopped production when the unsold inventory reached 85 days. And depending on how one does the calculation, GM loses about $50,000 on each Volt sold according to Reuters.
A new factory is being built in Tennessee to manufacture Nissan Leafs. Nissan got a $1.5 billion low interest rate loan from the Feds for the construction. Nissan says the factory can produce 150,000 Leafs each year. Sales of the Leaf through August this year are 4,228. One has to wonder if Nissan Management isn’t concerned that they overbuilt this factory or perhaps even built it at all.
And the battery maker story is even worse, in my opinion. A123 got loans of $250 million from the Feds. A123 was facing bankruptcy when the Wanxiang Group, one of China’s biggest auto suppliers purchased 80% ownership in the company. Ener1 got $118 million in pledges from the Feds and another $80 million in State and local pledges. It was declaring bankruptcy when Boris Zingarevich, a Russian businessman with ties to former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, bought them out. A123 and Ener1 are suppliers to our military as well as to the EV and hybrid manufacturers. The battery technology developed (paid for by us taxpayers) is now in the hands of the Russians and the Chinese.
So, large amounts of money have been spent developing EVs and hybrids. GM and probably Nissan are losing substantial amounts of money every day as they continue to produce the Volt and the Leaf. The gasoline price is much higher than it was in the 90tys when that generation of EVs failed. It will be very hard to generate a believable story line for a new documentary on what” killed the electric car” this time unless they say the customers did not want them. Obviously that was the reason back in the 90tys, too.
Will there ever be a time for EVs? Probably. But it is not now.
cbdakota
The President’s acceptance speech at the Democrat Convention last Thursday was a pants-on-fire moment when it came to his 
energy program. (There were other topics besides the energy program in that speech that also rated high on the pants-on-fire meter—but this is an energy blog.)
The President claims responsibility for the decline in the use of imported crude oil. “In the last year alone, we cut oil imports by 1 million barrels a day, more than any administration in recent history”. There are two primary reasons for this decline. First is because the manufacturing sector is still suffering from this less than robust economy—here his claim rings true as he is responsible for this economy. The second is that the States and Private property owners have managed to overcome his and his administration’s efforts to stymie the development of oil and natural gas fields. Yes, oil and gas production are up but not on Federal lands where the President has the “say so”. Oil production declined 11% and natural gas declined 6% on Federal lands from fiscal year (FY) 2010 to FY 2011. At the same time on State and Private Lands’ oil production increased by 14% and natural gas by 12% over that same period.
He said: “…. where we develop a hundred-year supply of natural gas that’s right beneath our feet. If you choose this path, we can cut our oil imports in half by 2020 and support more than 600,000 new jobs in natural gas alone”. While he is claiming credit for the natural gas, it really is No Thanks to Obama who has sent the EPA out to find reasons to rein in (i.e., reasons to stop fracking of shale) this State and Private land activity.
Oil and natural gas production from State and Private Lands will continue to increase and will be the driver of the US economic recovery. Not the “green” jobs that he has been promoting. “We have doubled our use of renewable energy, and thousands of Americans have jobs today building wind turbines and long-lasting batteries”. While Obama wants you think that wind and solar are soon to replace fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) that is not happening. Fossil fuels supplied 78% and nukes another 11% of the US energy needs in 2010. Wind supplied about 2% and solar was barely above 0 %. That they are that much is a testimonial to the crony capitalism being practiced by the Federal government by subsidizing the capital cost of renewables installation. This practice leaves the rate payers holding the bag for the high cost of the electricity that renewables create. It looks like the US will be joining most of the rest of the world that have become disillusioned with wind and solar when Congress doesn’t renew the subsidies next year. Adding to their dismal performance is the fact that for every new Kw of wind and solar power, a corresponding amount of fossil fuel supplied energy must be built because wind and solar are too unreliable (the wind blows sometimes and not at others and we know the sun is not always shining) for the nation’s power grid to rely upon. So not only are these unreliable renewables not competitively priced, the global warmers don’t get a reduction in CO2 emissions.
He says that man-made global warming is “not a hoax“. He is wrong. His EPA is writing regulations that will imposed a “cap and trade” program on the use of fossil fuels. Cap and Trade failed attempts at passage in Congress. Here he is usurping the legislative role of Congress.
The President’s energy program is a threat to all of us, and especially our children who are going to have to pay higher energy cost while having to cope with the massive debt this Administration has racked up.
cbdakota
GM reports that more than 2500 Volts were sold in August. They also announced that they would stop production of the Volt for a month. Volt production capacity is way in excess of current sales. This is the second stoppage of Volt production this year. Total Volt sales through August appear to be about 13,170 which are well short of the 2012 forecast of 45,000 hybrids.
Nissan’s Leaf sales in August were 685 EVs versus 395 last month. Through August, sales have amounted to 4228 vehicles. With four months left to go in the year, the auto media reporters are beginning to question Nissan’s many statements that they will sell more than 20,000 this year. A penetrating insight by these reporters –Snark.
I guess it is late reporting of sales or losses thereof, but it is hard to make an exact accounting of the monthly sales figures. The numbers change a lot. The auto industry accountants must have attended the same University as did the ones who issue the weekly national employment/unemployment figures. Each week the old forecast is amended.
cbdakota
Climate Change Sanity 