Category Archives: Green Jobs

Dr Evans Explains Why Climate Models Overstate Potential Global Warming


Last September, I posted:  Dr Evans:”Climate Models Are Violently At Odds With Reality”.   This posting is a Dr Evans up-date of the September information.  This time he adds a simple explanation of the central issue regarding CO2 caused global warming—will feedbacks from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 be positive or negative?  The Warmers claim that a 1C increase due to doubling of atmospheric CO2 will really become a 3.3C  increase because of positive feedback.  We skeptics believe that the feedback will be negative and the warming will probably be in the range of 0.6C.

For those of you more inquisitive types, Dr Evans in his footnotes, gives more information and references to help you do some research of your own.

Click here to read Dr Evans full posting

cbdakota

Wind Farm’s Non-performance Endangers Lives


Kevin Myers posts “Energy policy based on renewables will win hearts but won’t protect their owners from frostbite and death due to exposure”.  He tells us that the early February cold and blizzard that swept across Europe resulted in the deaths of over three hundred people but it could have been worse.  It seems that Gazprom the principle Russian natural gas supply company was not able to keep up with demand in Europe.

Myers asks:  “Did anyone even think of deploying our wind turbines to make good the energy shortfall from Russia?”  Which he answers:” Of course not. We all know that windmills are a self-indulgent and sanctimonious luxury whose purpose is to make us feel good. Had Europe genuinely depended on green energy on Friday, by Sunday thousands would be dead from frostbite and exposure, and the EU would have suffered an economic body blow to match that of Japan’s tsunami a year ago. No electricity means no water, no trams, no trains, no airports, no traffic lights, no phone systems, no sewerage, no factories, no service stations, no office lifts, no central heating and even no hospitals, once their generators run out of fuel.

Modern cities are incredibly fragile organisms, which tremble on the edge of disaster the entire time. During a severe blizzard, it is electricity alone that prevents a midwinter urban holocaust. We saw what adverse weather can do, when 15,000 people died in the heat wave that hit France in August 2003. But those deaths were spread over a month. Last weekend’s weather, without energy, could have caused many tens of thousands of deaths over a couple of days.

Why does the entire green spectrum, which now incorporates most conventional parties across Europe, deny the most obvious of truths? To play lethal games with our energy systems in order to honour the whimsical god of climate change is as intelligent and scientific as the Aztec sacrifice of their young. Actually, it is far more frivolous, because at least the Aztecs knew how many people they were sacrificing: no one has the least idea of the loss of life that might result from the EU embracing “green” energy policies.”

Myers uses Ireland as an example:  “Wind power in Ireland actually produces only 22pc of its capacity: would you spend ¿100,000 on a car if it meant that ¿78,000 of the purchase price was wasted? It gets worse. On a really cold day, we actually need about 5,000 megawatts, but yesterday wind was producing under 50 megawatts: a grand total of 1pc of requirements. “

To read the whole of Myers’ posting, click here.

This is not untypical of wind farms.  Basically windfarms are anathema to operators of the electrical grids that supply our electricity because they cannot depend on them being a source of power.  Some times the wind blows and sometimes it doesn’t.  Customers cannot accept an electrical supply system that is intermittent.  See here, here, here, and  here for more on the unreliability wind farms power.

Routinely temperatures in many parts of the US match or exceed those experienced in France during their August 2003 heat wave. Few deaths occur in these areas of the US due to the prevalence of Air Conditioning units.  This is another example, echoing Myers, where our lives depend on a steady supply of electricity.

And what would this posting be without some comments by James Delingpole who weighed in on this topic as follows:

“Have a look at this debate between pro-renewables campaigner Jonathan Pyke and Mark Duchamp of the European Platform Against Wind Farms in The Earth Times and you’ll see what I mean:

Q: How accurate is the argument that wind turbines have to be ‘backed-up’ by alternative sources of power, eg nuclear or coal, due to the irregularity of wind?

Jonathan: It’s not accurate and I think it stems from a misunderstanding about what wind energy is for. It’s better to think of wind as the back-up for gas, allowing us to make much better use of our existing fossil fuel power plants than relying on gas alone. There’s no need to burn gas when the wind is blowing, which National Grid can predict extremely accurately. So comparing it to nuclear or coal is misleading because wind serves a different purpose; every time it blows there’s a substantial decrease in carbon emissions, volatile fossil fuel costs, water for cooling, manufacturing and pollution. The ‘back-up’ argument just isn’t valid.

R-i-g-h-t. So what you’re saying, Jonathan, is that the ONLY reason we’re carpeting some of the world’s most attractive wild countryside in horribly costly, economically inefficient, bird-liquidising, noise-polluting, view-blighting, rare-earth-metal-exploiting, property-debasing, horse-frightening, rent-seekers’ uber-horrors, is to save the odd tonne of CO2 emissions, as and when, despite the fact that the science increasingly suggests that the difference this will make to global climate will be so negligible as to be beyond measurement?

At first they said they would replace fossil fuel driven electrical generating plants, but as this has turned out badly for them they now want to convince us that what they really, really, really want to do is play the part of backup.  Yikees, the windfarms were not economic as the primary units how on earth can they be anything but less economic as backup units  and they will still be unreliable.

You can read the Delingpole’s article by clicking here.

cbdakota

Ethanol Subsidies: Not Gone, Just Hidden a Little Better


Mother Jones, an organization with a very liberal viewpoint posted that the subsidies for ethanol fuel have expired but that this doesn’t trouble the ethanol fuel producers.  Kevin Drum authored the posting and I will let him tell you why.

A few years ago I called subsidies for corn ethanol “catastrophically idiotic.” And why not? Corn ethanol, it turns out, is actively worse for the environment than even gasoline. Farmers responded to the subsidies by reducing the amount of farmland used for food production, and this drove up the price of staple food worldwide.  At the end of last year, ethanol subsidies quietly expired and no one tried to extend them.

So why did the powerful corn ethanol lobby let it expire without an apparent fight? The answer lies in legislation known as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), which creates government-guaranteed demand that keeps corn prices high and generates massive farm profits. Removing the tax credit but keeping the RFS is like scraping a little frosting from the ethanol-boondoggle cake.

The RFS mandates that at least 37 percent of the 2011-12 corn crop be converted to ethanol and blended with the gasoline that powers our cars…[As a result] the current price of corn on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is about $6.50 per bushel—almost triple the pre-mandate level.

 You might not be aware that when the EPA does mpg ratings for new cars, they use gasoline that does not contain any ethanol.  Adding ethanol at 10% of the fuel mix, the energy in a gallon of fuel is about 96.7% of a fuel not containing ethanol.  Ethanol has less energy per gallon than normal unleaded gasoline.  So the MPG rating is probably just a bit high.    See

cbdakota

Rare Earth Elements Background.


If you follow the alternative energy issues (windmills, solar cells, ethanol for fuel, etc) you have very likely encountered discussions about rare earth elements. This posting is designed to provide the reader a little background.    Rare earths are used in lights, batteries, motors, lasers, and many other electronic applications.  In addition some of them are used as oil refinery catalysts, in metal alloys and glass polishing and coloring applications just to mention a few non-electronic uses.  There are 17 rare earth elements on the periodic table.  What makes these metals rare is that they are not often found in concentrations that can be profitably mined.  According to Wikipedia, one of them “Cerium” is the 25th most abundant element in the Earth’s crust,  however they are widely dispersed.  China has the best mines in the world it would seem.  China sold these elements at prices low enough to shut down most of the other mines in the world.

The magnets that can be made from several of the elements are vastly more powerful that those made from cobalt, the previous best permanent magnet making metal. Two of the rare earths commonly used are Neodymium and Samarium.  They are alloyed with other metals to form permanent magnets.  These magnets are replacing non-rare earth alloy magnets in electric motor assemblies because of their magnetic field strength.  These rare earth alloy magnets can be made smaller to reduce weight and still create high magnetic flux for electric motors.  It is said that the magnetic attraction is so powerful that if your finger is between two of these magnets you will likely experience a fractured finger.

Pure Neodymium has a low Curie temperature so it is only magnetic at low temperatures. Above the Curie point it’s parallel alignment of the magnetic field lines become disordered and it loses its magnetism.  To overcome this problem, Neodymium is alloyed with boron and iron to make a permanent magnet that can operate up to approximately 300 C.  The rare earths are also vulnerable to corrosion.  This problem is resolved by plating.

Although Samarium has a higher Curie temperature, it plays a smaller role than Neodymium because it is more expensive and creates a weaker magnetic field.  It is commonly alloyed with Cobalt.

The price and geopolitics are playing a role in the use of rare earths.  According to a November 16, 2011 NYTimes article, the prices of rare earths are dropping:

International prices for some light rare earths, like cerium and lanthanum, used in the polishing of flat-screen televisions and the refining of oil, respectively, have fallen as much as two-thirds since August and are still dropping. Prices have declined by roughly one-third since then for highly magnetic rare earths, like neodymium, needed for products like smartphones, computers and large wind turbines.

A chart of the price versus time for Neodymium is shown below:

The price for Neodymium appears to be at about $350 per kilogram.

There are some geopolitical ramifications surrounding rare earths:  Again from the Times posting:

China mines 94 percent of the rare earth metals in the world. Through 2008, it supplied almost all of the global annual demand outside of China of 50,000 to 55,000 tons. But it cut export quotas to a little more than 30,000 tons last year and again this year and imposed steep export taxes, producing a shortage in the rest of the world.

Together with a two-month Chinese embargo on shipments to Japan during a territorial dispute a year ago, the trade restrictions and shortage resulted in prices outside China reaching as much as 15 times the level within China last winter. That created a big incentive for companies that use rare earths in their products to move factories to China or find alternatives.

The US had some working rare earth working mines before the advent of the Chinese.  I have read that one in California is planning to resume production now that the prices have reached a point where working the mine is economical.

Stay tuned.

cbdakota

Electric Car Update-YTD November


Volt vs. Leaf

The Chevy Volt sales were 1139 vehicles in November bettering last month’s sales of 1108.  That brought the year-to-date Volt sales (YTD) to 6142.  Chevy had forecast Volt sales 10,000 vehicles in 2011 and it looks like they wont make that target.   Chevy is forecasting Volt sales at 45,000 in 2012 and they will export 15,000 more.  I suppose it is possible that they might make that forecast, but I have my doubts unless GE (Obama good buddy Jeffery Immelt CEO of GE) buys the 10,000 Volts they pledged that they would.  The first part of 2011, Chevy maintained that they were production, not sales, limited.  But at the end of 2011, there did not seem to be a lack of Volts for sales.  November’s sales of 1139 are the best month so far this year.

You make your estimate of 2012 sales.

The Volt’s main competitor this year has been Nissan’s Leaf.  Leaf sales dropped for the third consecutive month to 672 vehicles.  Even so, Leaf still leads in the 2011 YTD sales race with 8738 vehicles sold.

Aptera

Aptera is an all electric three wheel vehicle with an EPA rating of 200mpg equivalent.   It is a beauty but they can’t get matching loan money to continue operation.  They announced that they are going out of business.

Sorry about that.

cbdakota

Fisker’s Karma Hybrid Gets Range Test


The Fisker Karma hybrid is a good looking car but perhaps beauty is only skin deep, as the old saying goes.

 This baby weighs in at about 5000 pounds. It is 16.5 feet long and has a 403 hp powerplant.  It costs $96,000.  EPA uses “inside volume” to determine the class and because it has less than 100 cu.ft., it is categorized a “Subcompact”.   The EPA fuel rating is 52 mpg-equivalent combined city and highway driving and it has a range on a full battery charge of 32 miles!!!!

The gasoline driven generator come on when the battery is exhausted,  and then it is rated at 20 mpg.

Fisker is promoting the test results they got using the European regulatory body TUV.  (It is said that their ratings are typically twice the EPA ratings.)  The TUV proclaimed the range 51.6 miles equivalent on electric-only mode.

cbdakota

 

The Obama Administration’s War on Fossil Fuels Is Taken To a New Level (of absurdity)


If you were writing a fiction novel and used the latest example of the Obama Administration’s war on fossil fuels, your editor would tell you to take the example out because it was not believable.  But it seems that for the Obama Administration nothing is too absurd:  The Wall Street Journal in an editorial published on 29 September says:  “The U.S. Attorney for North

Image by TreeHugger.com

Dakota hauled seven oil and natural gas companies into federal court for killing 28 migratory birds that were found dead near oil waste lagoons. The fine can be up to $15000 and up to six months in jail for each bird killed.    The WSJ adds:”Absurdity aside, this prosecution is all the more remarkable because the wind industry each year kills not 28 birds, or even a few hundred, but some 440,000, according to estimates by the American Bird Conservancy based on Fish and Wildlife Service data. Guess how many legal actions the Obama Administration has brought against wind turbine operators under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act? As far as we can tell, it’s zero.”

I guess the Attorney General is too busy covering up the Solyndra affair to go after the wind industry.

h/t Junk Science  See here

cbdakota

The Federal Government Should Not Be Financing “Renewable Fuels” Projects


Much has been revealed in the recent weeks about Solyndra and the developing scandal that followed the bankruptcy of the company after having received a $523 billion dollar, low interest loan from the Obama Administration.  Much is yet to be learned, and it did not get advanced by the Top Officials of Solyndra pleading the 5th Amendment at the House of Representatives hearing on Friday 23 September.

The Institute for Energy Research condensed a report by ABC on the Solyndra fiasco in to 5 Reasons why the federal government should exit the finance business.  Those reasons are as follows:

First, the government loaned Solyndra money at a really, really low interest rate—a mere 1.025 percent quarterly. In fact, this was the lowest rate provided for any green energy project.

Second, this low rate was in spite of “red flags” about the risk of investing in Solyndra. One outside rating agency rated Solyndra only a B+ and another rated Solyndra only as “Fair” for credit worthiness.

Third, Obama’s Department of Energy announced the loans before the due diligence was complete and even after auditors raised concerns. But this was not for lack of attention because even the President visited the plant and praised Solyndra as an example of the future of energy.

Fourth, according to ABC News, “Solyndra’s most prolific financial backer is George Kaiser, an Oklahoma oil billionaire who was a bundler of campaign donations for Obama’s 2008 race. Kaiser’s Argonaut Ventures and its affiliates have been the single largest shareholder of Solyndra, according to SEC filings and other records.” This connection alone should have caused pause for the federal government when considering an expedited loan arrangement.

And last, and in my mind, by far the worst, Kaiser and his Argonaut Ventures are first in line to recoup their investment in Solynda in bankruptcy proceedings. As ABC News explains, “Energy officials confirmed this arrangement, saying that private investors including Kaiser would first recoup their $75 million, then the U.S. government would have a chance to recover $150 million of its investment. If any money is left, the private investors and the U.S. government would divvy up the remainder in equal shares.”

In sum, the Obama administration rammed through a half billion loan on very favorable terms to a shaky company, run by a George Kaiser, one of President Obama’s largest fundraisers. If Kaiser and his company made money with Solyndra, they would keep the profits and if Solyndra failed, as in this case, they still get their money back while the taxpayer is left holding the bag.”

Any Questions?

cbdakota

CFL Bulb Prices Going Up


A Junk Science posting says that:

China has crimped the supply of rare earth metals causing CFL light bulbs to rise in price by 37% this year.

According to the New York Times report,

By closing or nationalizing dozens of the producers of rare earth metals — which are used in energy-efficient bulbs and many other green-energy products — China is temporarily shutting down most of the industry and crimping the global supply of the vital resources…

General Electric, facing complaints in the United States about rising prices for its compact fluorescent bulbs, recently noted in a statement that if the rate of inflation over the last 12 months on the rare earth element europium oxide had been applied to a $2 cup of coffee, that coffee would now cost $24.55…

China says it has largely shut down its rare earth industry for three months to address pollution problems. By invoking environmental concerns, China could potentially try to circumvent international trade rules that are supposed to prohibit export restrictions of vital materials.

If you haven’t already said your morning curses, don’t forget to condemn the 110th Congress for passing the incandescent bulb ban, George W. Bush for signing it, and the the 111th and 112th Congresses and Barack Obama for failing to reverse the ban.

One more green initiative that has gone wrong.

cbdakota