Category Archives: Green Jobs

Will The Solar Industry Survive?

Posted on September 21, 2012 | Leave a comment

Manufacturers of Solar Panels

Since the demise of the German solar panel industry, the major solar panel manufacturers are mostly Chinese. There are others such as Sunpower (French) and First Solar (American).   Sunpower, formerly an American firm, is now owned by TOTAL, the French petroleum giant.  Sunpower, formed in 1985, had stopped producing solar cells last year.  They were nearing bankruptcy having lost some $600 million.  However, they were able to restructure when TOTAL bought 60% of the company.  While the company has survived, the market does not have much confidence in its future.  In October, 2009 Sunpower shares sold for about $32.  Those shares now sell for $5.   Across the World, the subsidies that have been doled out for solar energy projects are diminished or have vanished altogether.  As of September, none of these firms are making a profit. 

Why Are The Solar Panels Makers Not Making a Profit?

A posting by the Telegraph (UK) reports on the Chinese solar panel makers’ financials: ”China’s big five firms are all reporting disastrous trading and heavily indebted balance sheets. At the end of the first quarter, JA Solar listed debt and liabilities of $1.5 billion, Trina Solar had debts of $1.08 billion, and Yingli had debts of $3.44 billion.  Suntech, once held up as a model company, could have to pay $690m in collateral related to a possible fraud, and it also has a $541m convertible bond payment in early 2013. Its total debts are $3.58 billion.  In the first quarter, LDK lost $185.2m as sales dropped by nearly 75pc.”

The manufacturers, particularly in China are increasing their production capacity so that it far exceeds solar panel demand and ironically, at a time when demand is slowing due to reduced or eliminated US and European government subsidies given to builders of solar farms. Further acerbating the profit problem is that some of the Chinese manufacturers are reported to be selling below the cost of manufacture (this is Dumping). The US has imposed a tariff on imported Chinese solar panels. The Europeans are charging the Chinese with “Dumping” and the result will be that the Chinese will lose that market too.  

China seems to be of two minds here.  The government is supporting these expansions because the government needs new jobs to contain China’s huge, annual increase of job seekers. Many believe that they will continue to build solar farms for the same reason. The competitiveness of all this is often secondary in a government run economy. Remember that the Soviet Union did this before they went broke.  Our government is not too far off of that track themselves when it comes to “renewable energy”.

Are Solar Farms Competitive?

Solar farms are the least competitive form of renewable energy.    

The US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) says that solar projects provide the most expensive power.   The EIA estimated levelized cost of new generation resources coming on line in 2017 are:

Type of Generation Cost   $/megawatt-h
Natural Gas- Conventional Combined Cycle 66.1
Conventional Coal 97.7**
Advanced Nuclear 111.4
Wind-On-Shore 96.0
Solar 152.7
  **potential C tax included

                                                                                                                                  

Solar is 2.3 times more expensive than natural gas.   The only reason anyone builds solar farms is because the Federal government loans the crony capitalists the money at basically no risk to the borrowers and then the States require the utilities pass on the cost on the their customers. The consumer pays at least 50% more for this form of electricity.  

The on-line German “Focus” posted an interview with Klaus Dieter Maubach, the Technology Chairman of E.On a major German power company and Maubach said:  (This quote is a translation from the German by Google translator)  “Germany’s solar industry will disappear in the next five years in the face of competition from China. Not a single worker is still working at the German solar companies, as the latter are then all broke, it cited the Bloomberg news agency.”  The English also are becoming tired of supporting renewable solar.  The Spanish and Italian governments are reducing subsidies dramatically.   My guess that no matter which man, Obama or Romney, is elected President, the US government subsidies for solar will not be renew.  

Perhaps more money should be directed toward the development of Thorium reactors. We need to talk about these reactors in a posting.

cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, Alternative Energy, Domestic Energy, Energy Development, Green Jobs, Nuclear Energy, solar cells

President Obama’s Pants-On-Fire Acceptance Speech

Posted on September 11, 2012 | 2 comments

The President’s acceptance speech at the Democrat Convention last Thursday was a pants-on-fire moment when it came to his energy program. (There were other topics besides the energy program in that speech that also rated high on the pants-on-fire meter—but this is an energy blog.)

The President claims responsibility for the decline in the use of imported crude oil.  “In the last year alone, we cut oil imports by 1 million barrels a day, more than any administration in recent history”. There are two primary reasons for this decline. First is because the manufacturing sector is still suffering from this less than robust economy—here his claim rings true as he is responsible for this economy.  The second is that the States and Private property owners have managed to overcome his and his administration’s efforts to stymie the development of oil and natural gas fields. Yes, oil and gas production are up but not on Federal lands where the President has the “say so”.  Oil production declined 11% and natural gas declined 6% on Federal lands from fiscal year (FY) 2010 to FY 2011.  At the same time on State and Private Lands’ oil production increased by 14% and natural gas by 12% over that same period.

 He said: “…. where we develop a hundred-year supply of natural gas that’s right beneath our feet. If you choose this path, we can cut our oil imports in half by 2020 and support more than 600,000 new jobs in natural gas alone”. While he is claiming credit for the natural gas, it really is No Thanks to Obama who has sent the EPA out to find reasons to rein in (i.e., reasons to stop fracking of shale) this State and Private land activity.  

Oil and natural gas production from State and Private Lands will continue to increase and will be the driver of the US economic recovery.  Not the “green” jobs that he has been promoting.  “We have doubled our use of renewable energy, and thousands of Americans have jobs today building wind turbines and long-lasting batteries”. While Obama wants you think that wind and solar are soon to replace fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) that is not happening. Fossil fuels supplied 78% and nukes another 11% of the US energy needs in 2010.  Wind supplied about 2% and solar was barely above 0 %. That they are that much is a testimonial to the crony capitalism being practiced by the Federal government by subsidizing the capital cost of renewables installation. This practice leaves the rate payers holding the bag for the high cost of the electricity that renewables create.   It looks like the US will be joining most of the rest of the world that have become disillusioned with wind and solar when Congress doesn’t renew the subsidies next year.  Adding to their dismal performance is the fact that for every new Kw of wind and solar power, a corresponding amount of fossil fuel supplied energy must be built because wind and solar are too unreliable (the wind blows sometimes and not at others and we know the sun is not always shining) for the nation’s power grid to rely upon.  So not only are these unreliable renewables not competitively priced, the global warmers don’t get a reduction in CO2 emissions.

“After 30 years of inaction, we raised fuel standards so that by the middle of the next decade, cars and trucks will go twice as far on a gallon of gas”. Despite the implication that he has accomplished something, this new standard is in effective 2025 and there are many reasons to question if it can be met. This will only be realized if significant numbers of electric vehicles replace gasoline based vehicles.  And how is that program going? The hybrid Chevy Volt, the leading US manufactured vehicle, has sold through August about 13,170 making it unlikely they will meet the 2012 forecast of 45,000. The Volt is brought to you by Government General Motors (GM).  Through August, the best-selling all-electric car, the Nissan Leaf, had sold 4,228 vehicles versus the 2012 forecast of 20,000.  The electric vehicles are neither affordable nor efficient for the overwhelming majority of consumers who commute for work.  The Volt’s selling price is about $45,000 before the Government tax incentive of $7,500.  Even at that price, a recent report says: “Nearly two years after the introduction of the path-breaking plug-in hybrid, GM is still losing as much as $49,000 on each Volt it builds, according to estimates provided to Reuters by industry analysts and manufacturing experts.”  A little perspective, the projected US  2012 sales of vehicles is about 14 million.  There are something like 250 million registered vehicles in the US.  Even if the Volt were to sell 45,ooo it is drop-in-the-bucket. 

He says that man-made global warming is “not a hoax“.  He is wrong.  His EPA is writing regulations that will imposed a “cap and trade” program on the use of fossil fuels.  Cap and Trade failed attempts at passage in Congress.  Here he is usurping the legislative role of Congress.

The President’s energy program is a threat to all of us, and especially our children who are going to have to pay higher energy cost while having to cope with the massive debt this Administration has racked up.  

cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, Alternative Energy, cap and trade, CO2, Domestic Energy, Electric Vehicles, Energy Development, EPA, fossil fuels, Government Regulations, Green Jobs, Nuclear Energy, Oil and Gas Exploration, Personal Automobiles, US Auto Manufacturers, Windpower

Volt Sales UP But Little Likelihood Of Meeting Sales Forecast

Posted on September 6, 2012 | Leave a comment

GM reports that more than 2500 Volts were sold in August.  They also announced that they would stop production of the Volt for a month.  Volt production capacity is way in excess of current sales.  This is the second stoppage of Volt production this year. Total Volt sales through August appear to be about 13,170 which are well short of the 2012 forecast of 45,000 hybrids.

Nissan’s Leaf sales in August were 685 EVs versus 395 last month. Through August, sales have amounted to 4228 vehicles.  With four months left to go in the year, the auto media reporters are beginning to question Nissan’s many statements that they will sell more than 20,000 this year.  A penetrating insight by these reporters –Snark.

I guess it is late reporting of sales or losses thereof, but it is hard to make an exact accounting of the monthly sales figures.  The numbers change a lot. The auto industry accountants must have attended the same University as did the ones who issue the weekly national employment/unemployment figures.  Each week the old forecast is amended.

cbdakota

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Posted in Alternative Energy, Batteries, Domestic Energy, Electric Vehicles, fossil fuels, Green Jobs, Personal Automobiles, US Auto Manufacturers

Fracked Natural Gas Changing The US Economy

Posted on August 25, 2012 | 2 comments

According to a recent report issued(12/2011) by IHC  Global Insight**, shale gas (fracked natural gas) has changed the US energy outlook and the economy.   In 2010, shale gas provided 27% of the US natural gas (NG).  IHC forecasts that by 2035, shale gas will provide 60% of the US NG production.  Without the shale gas, a NG supply shortage would have necessitated the importation of liquefied natural gas(LNG). Today’s price of somewhere around $3 to $4 per million BTUs would likely be in the range of $10 to $12 per million Btus if importation had been necessary.  Longer term,  IHC forecasts 2035 NG price at $7.90 per million Btus (All values in their report are in constant 2010 dollars.) thanks to shale gas.

 The job creation due to shale gas has been outstanding and IHC forecasts continued increases in jobs.   IHC reports that shale gas, by 2010, had supported over 600,000 jobs.  They forecast jobs to grow to 1.6 million by 2035.   

There are other benefits as well.  In 2010 the industry contributed $18.6 billion in governmental tax revenues and royalty payments.  By 2035 the cumulative contribution of taxes and royalties are forecast to be $933 billion.   Additionally,  the capital expenditures made between 2010 and 2035 are forecast at $1.9 trillion.

In the future, electricity prices are forecast to drop by 10%  and parts of the chemical industry will be revived.  Our domestic industries will become more competitive because of the lower cost of natural gas as feedstock and NG’s impact on electrical cost.

Although there will be some redundancy relative to the preceding discussion,  the Key Findings page for IHCs report “The Economic and Employment Contributions of Shale Gas in the United States” is an excellent summary.  It follows:

• By 2010, shale gas had grown to 27% of total US natural gas production, and by September 2011,it had reached 34%.

• By 2015, that share will grow to 43% and will more than double, reaching 60%, by 2035.

• Nearly $1.9 trillion in shale gas capital investments are expected between 2010 and 2035.

• Capital expenditures are especially strong in the near future, growing from $33 billion in 2010 to $48 billion by 2015.

• In 2010, the shale gas industry supported 600,000 jobs; this will grow to nearly 870,000 in 2015 and to over 1.6 million by 2035.

Growth in the shale gas industry will make significant contributions to the broader economy in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and tax revenues:

• The shale gas contribution to GDP was more than $76 billion in 2010. This will increase to $118 billion by 2015 and will triple to $231 billion in 2035.

• In 2010 shale gas production contributed $18.6 billion in federal, state and local government tax and federal royalty revenues. By 2035, these receipts will more than triple to just over $57 billion. On a cumulative basis, the shale industry will generate more than $933 billion in federal, state, and local tax and royalty revenues over the next 25 years.

• The extent of job and GDP contributions reflect the capital intensity of the shale gas industry, the ability to source inputs from within the United States, the nature of the supply chain, and the quality of the jobs created.

The growth of shale gas is leading to lower natural gas and electric power prices and increased productivity:

• The full-cycle cost of shale gas produced from wells drilled in 2011 is 40-50% less than the cost of gas from conventional wells drilled in 2011.

• Without shale gas production, reliance on high levels of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports would influence US natural gas prices, causing them to increase by at least 100%.

• The lower natural gas prices achieved with shale gas production will result in an average reduction of 10% in electricity costs nationwide over the forecast period.

• By 2017, lower prices will result in an initial impact of 2.9% higher industrial production. By 2035, industrial production will be 4.7% higher.

• Chemicals production in particular stands to benefit from an extended period of low natural gas prices, as it uses natural gas as a fuel source and feedstock. Chemicals producers have already signaled their intentions to increase US capacity.

• Savings from lower gas prices will add an annual average of $926 per year in disposable household income between 2012 and 2015. In 2035, this would increase to just over $2,000 per household.

 

 It is well worth your reading the full report which can be accessed by clicking here. It is intended that the next posting reviews the IHC report on unconv entional gas’s c ontributions by State.  That posting is to be followed by a look at a similar report by the Bookings Institute on Green Jobs.

cbdakota

**IHS  Global Insight is one of the world’s leading economic analysis and forecasting firms.

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted in AGW, Alternative Energy, Domestic Energy, Energy Development, Environment, fossil fuels, Green Jobs, Oil and Gas Exploration, US Companies Manufacturing, US Manufacturing Companies

FISKER HAS ANOTHER FIRE

Posted on August 14, 2012 | Leave a comment

Another Fisker Karma fire, this time in Anaheim, California.   The owner had driven to a grocery store where he parked the car and went inside.  The fire occured in the left-front side of the vehicle.   Fisker says the fire was not caused by the battery pack which has been implicated in the previous fires.  Fisker has hired a firm to investigate the cause.

This youtube posting captured the firemen putting out the blaze: http://youtu.be/wzQiY4eUygA

This photo was taken after the fire was extinguished:

Photo from USAToday.

What ever the cause,  this is not good news for Fisker.

cbdakota

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Posted in Alternative Energy, Batteries, Electric Vehicles, fossil fuels, Green Jobs, Personal Automobiles

Volt And Leaf June Sales

Posted on July 3, 2012 | 1 comment

The good news is that Chevrolet Volt sales for June were 1,760 versus the previous month’s Volt sales of 1,680.  The bad news is that at the end of June there were 5,300 Volts in stock, an 82 day-supply.  The Volt production line has been idled twice so far this year because of low demand.

Meanwhile the news is not particularly good for the Nissan Leaf because June sales were only 535 and that brings the year-to-date total sales to 3,418.  Nissan still insists that they will sell 20,000 Leafs this year.

cbdakota

 

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Posted in AGW, Alternative Energy, Batteries, Electric Vehicles, fossil fuels, Green Jobs, Personal Automobiles, US Auto Manufacturers

Another Solar Energy Company To File For Bankruptcy

Posted on June 30, 2012 | 1 comment

Abound Solar, one of four solar energy companies provided loans by the Department of Energy is expected to file for bankruptcy protection the first week in July.  The company received $70 million in federal loans.  The company employs 125.  Solyndra was one of the four receiving loans, and as you probably know, it has gone bankrupt, too.

Slate.com posts “Why No One Should Be Surprised That Another Obama-Backed Solar Startup Is Going Bust.”  The tone of their posting is that Conservatives will be gleeful about this company going bust.  Conservatives do not get off on failures of companies and lost jobs.  In fact the people planning on causing people to loose jobs are those in the current administration doing their best to put all the people employed in the coal industry out of jobs.  If that objective is realized, as directed by President Obama,  it will make 125 jobs lost look insignificant.

Conservatives want R&D monies to be expended on solar cell research.  Not for the government to be picking and choosing businesses for which their record in one of failure.  The Administrations efforts to strong-arm wind and solar has so far yielded little to be proud of.  These operations are only valuable to their cronies that take little to no risk all at the expense of the taxpayer and specifically the ratepayers that have to absorb the vastly overpriced product .  The Energy Information Agency of the US Department of Energy categorizes wind and solar as Non-Dispatchable Technologies.  That means their delivery is too unreliable for the grids to be useable.   These technologies are not ready for PRIME TIME.   Wind and Solar will remain non-viable until such time that low cost,  large-scale energy storage is developed.

Yes, we know as Slate tells us,  the Chinese have dropped the prices of solar cells to a point where our domestic companies can not compete.  But even the cheaper solar cells don’t make solar farms viable.

cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, Alternative Energy, Domestic Energy, Energy Development, Environment, fossil fuels, Green Jobs, solar cells, Windpower

Not Much Joy In EV Land—May Sales Data

Posted on June 1, 2012 | 1 comment

The Chevy Volt hybrid May sales were 1680 up from 1462 in April.  The forecast annual sales of 45,000 seem to be a stretch with only 7057 Volts sold year-to-date.  A little arithmetic says that about 38,000 Volts need to be sold in the remaining 7 months of 2012.

The Nissan Leaf sales of 510 in May were up slightly over the 370 sold in May. Year-to-date leaf sales are 2613. The Nisan people maintain that they will sell 20,000 Leafs in 2012.  But the still under construction Smyrna, Tennessee plant, said to be capable of making 150,000 Leafs annually, is not scheduled to startup until late this year.  Until then, Nissan will supply the market from Japan.

Underperforming would seem to be the proper word for hybrid and EV sales in the US.  High gas prices and still the sales are anemic.  One more example of Obama’s costly green energy plan not living up to his overblown promises.

cbdakota

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Posted in Alternative Energy, Batteries, CAFE Standards, Electric Vehicles, EPA, fossil fuels, Green Jobs, Personal Automobiles

Solar Panels Don’t Work

Posted on May 31, 2012 | 2 comments

Ray Burgess, the President & CEO at Solar Power Technologies Inc posted on the Aol Energy website, “Solar Panels Don’t Work. And No One Knows.” That is a provocative title.  Burgess said: “Solar panels do not work that well. Often far below expectations.  And few know it. Not the owners who depend on power. Not the bankers who finance it. Not the brokers who insure it.”

The economic models that are used to finance, insure and subsidize solar farms assume the solar panels degrade about 0.5% per year. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) says that they can degrade as much as 4.5% a year or more.

At this point you may be wondering who or what is the NREL.  According to Wikipedia they are: “The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), located in Golden, Colorado is the United States primary laboratory for renewable energy and energy efficiency, research and development. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is a government-owned, contractor-operated facility; it is funded through the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).”   This is not an organization that opposes renewable energy.”

Burgess adds: The latest issue of the leading industry trade journal Photovoltaics International, asks the question: “What is the real quality of the products I am buying?”  Short answer: Nobody knows. In Italy last year, “they discovered that after one year in the field, over 90% of the (solar panels) from a one megawatt project began to delaminate and ended up on the ground.”   “Delaminate: Scientific talk for falling apart. And these panels had all the standard certifications.”

Burgess’ company sells systems that monitor performance of solar farms.  The company’s systems presumably can detect individual problem that are causing substandard performance.  He lists below, some of the performance inhibitors.

“Solar production in the field can go bad for dozens and dozens of reasons: An errant golf ball. A passing flock of geese. Bullets. Leaves. Shadows. Dirt. If a leaf or bird dropping prevents the sun from hitting part of your solar array, that knocks out solar production in an area 36 times the obstruction.”

Now I don’t know how that multiplier works, but I will take him at his word.

The above along with the problem of the inability to schedule energy production due to variability of the Sun, makes this form of energy less appealing.

cbdakota

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Posted in AGW, Alternative Energy, Domestic Energy, Energy Development, fossil fuels, Government Regulations, Green Jobs, solar cells

Garage Fire—Karma Caused?

Posted on May 19, 2012 | Leave a comment

Although a Fisker Karma was housed in a garage that burned down, early accounts suggest that the EV was not the cause. The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is assisting in the investigation of the early May fire at a home in Sugarland, Texas.

Roger Ormisher, a Fisker spokesman said: “The lithium-ion battery of the Fisker Karma was fully intact after the fire and has been tested and is in full working condition. Currently, the precise ignition source and cause of the garage fire is still to be determined.”

cbdakota

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Posted in Alternative Energy, CAFE Standards, Electric Vehicles, fossil fuels, Green Jobs, Personal Automobiles