Category Archives: cap and trade

OCT 09-US 3RD COLDEST SINCE 1895


TEMPS October_2009Joe D’Aleo has guest posted, on WattsUpWithThat,  information about current temperatures.  He prepared the chart shown above.  All but 7 of the lower 48 States had temperatures below normal in October 2009.

Remember,  Climate is measured in 10, 20 or more years.  What you are seeing in this posting is weather,  but this cold October is part of a trend of cooling global temperatures in this decade.  If this goes on for several more years we’ll have confirmed Climate cooling.  To read all of the story click here

Cbdakota

I have been doing only limited posting for several weeks as I am working on my Daughter’s house, preparing to put it on the market.  Two more weeks–I hope will finish it.

 

Climate Modelling Nonsense


An excellent entry in the Quadrant Online by John Reid titled “Climate Modelling Nonsense” discusses dangers of  governmental legislation based on the forecasts made by the General Circulation Models (GCM) developed by the IPCC and allies.  He believes that the scientific method has been abandoned by the man-made global warmist running these models.

Dr Reid is Phd who did his postgraduate work in upper atmosphere physics.  He says  the GCMs are not tested, but rather they are “verified”:

In the early 1980s I joined the CSIRO’s Division of Oceanography and worked in surface gravity waves (ocean waves) for a time. Much of the theoretical side of oceanography entails fluid dynamics which, because of its heavy mathematical load, is regarded as a sub-discipline of applied mathematics rather than of physics. Because of this, in my view, many practitioners of oceanography and climatology have a cavalier disregard for experimental testing and an unjustified faith in the validity of large-scale computer models.

Later in my career I was involved in running and refining numerical fluid dynamical models, so I gained some insight into how this modelling is done and how rigorously such models need to be tested. Naval architects and aerodynamical engineers do such testing in wave tanks and wind tunnels.

Meteorologists regularly test model “skill”. Climatologists don’t seem to have a concept of testing, and prefer to use the term “verification” instead—that is, they do not seek to invalidate their models; they only seek supporting evidence.

He also says it is his belief that the early models showed little increase in global temperatures with increasing atmospheric CO2, not the “desired” temperature increases they were looking for.  He adds:

However, an ingenious trick was used to make this happen. It is called “water vapour positive feedback” and appears to be used in all the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models. Without it, the climate models would show negligible increase in global temperature with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Water vapour positive feedback is only an assumption; but, importantly for the modellers, it is an assumption which makes the models work. There is little experimental evidence that it is true, and radiometer data collected by NASA scientist Roy Spencer and others indicate that it is not true.

Reid concludes with

People are entitled to entertain whatever apocalyptic view of the future they choose, but such ideas have nothing to do with science. Climate prediction is not science, it is pseudo-science, and sooner or later more real scientists are going to wake up to this fact.

Read his complete entry by clicking here

Cbdakota

SPPI Monthly CO2 Report–September


This month’s CO2 report highlights charts of atmospheric global temperature, Ocean Heat Content, atmospheric CO2 content, sea level and additional discussions about Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, hurricane and tropical cyclone activity, a discussion of CO2 residence time in the atmosphere, etc.  See full report here

Cbdakota

The Weakness of the AGW Theory


The “American Thinker” blog has an article by John McLaughlin that shows the weakness of the man-made global warming (AGW) theory.  The article Global Warming ‘Science’ discusses the fact that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, sponsored by the UN, was ..

Since its inception in 1988, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has sought to evaluate the risk of climate change brought about by human activity.  There has never been a requirement to also evaluate potential natural causes.”

The author discusses the impact the infamous Hockey Stick Temperature Graph had on the IPCC reports.

Their reports include a graph derived from mathematical models showing average global temperatures back to 1000 AD.  The graph appears relatively flat for over 900 years.  Then, about 1920, temperatures begin to rocket upward with but a brief pause around 1970 before heading still higher with no relief in sight.  So startling was this graph when it first appeared, it became known as the “Hockey Stick” chart.  The IPCC concluded the graph’s sudden change in character during the early 20th Century correlated with the introduction and increasing use of fossil fuel energy in that period, and that production of carbon dioxide (CO2) represented the principal man-made greenhouse gas culprit.

hockey stick graph

The Hockey Stick Temperature Graph

(Note, no medieval warm period & the “hockey stick” jump in temperatures)


Then he walks you through the story of how the Graph was exposed as a fraud:

As political hysteria over “man-made” or anthropogenic global warming (AGW) increased, other scientists began checking the mathematical analysis and measurements behind the hockey stick chart because it did not correlate with other known historical temperature data.  In 2003 Professor McKitrick teamed with a Canadian engineer, Steve McIntyre, in attempting to replicate the chart and finally debunked it as statistical nonsense.  They revealed how the chart was derived from “collation errors, unjustified truncation or extrapolation of source data, obsolete data, incorrect principal component calculations, geographical mislocations and other serious defects” — substantially affecting the temperature index.

And perhaps worse,  the National Academy of Sciences’ Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics concluded that:

“……the statistical methodology underpinning the hockey stick version was, indeed, profoundly flawed.  The Wegman panel submitted a report to the U.S. House of Representatives (which should have been available to all House members including Rep. Waxman) which cited results of an earlier National Research Council panel endorsing the work and results of McIntyre and McKitrick.  Wegman’s work also found the McIntyre and McKitrick analysis independently verifiable, their observations of the IPCC flaws correct and “valid,” and their arguments “compelling.”

McLaughlin also demonstrates that man-made carbon dioxide (CO2) can not be a significant cause of global warming.

Numerous gases make up the Earth’s atmosphere.  Of these, nitrogen represents about 78% by volume,  oxygen comprises just under 21%, and other gases (including “greenhouse gases”) make up slightly over 1% by volume remaining.  Of the principal greenhouse gases, water vapor is by far the most prevalent.  Second place belongs to carbon dioxide (CO2) at 0.04% with methane and nitrous oxide finishing a very distant third and fourth.

What complicates analysis of any manmade greenhouse effect is the relatively overwhelming prevalence of water vapor — a gas ignored by the IPCC.  The U.S. Department of Energy estimates water vapor makes up 95% of identified greenhouse gases and, of that amount, less than 0.001% can be attributed to manmade causes.  Thus, the IPCC and AGW proponents have focused on CO2 as the principal anthropogenic greenhouse gas.”

And :

Put another way, if accumulation of greenhouse gases has any impact on global warming, Department of Energy data indicates nearly 99.9% would have to be attributed to natural causes.  Nevertheless, AGW proponents blame approximately 1/1000 of all produced planetary CO2 — this trace gas  which, in its totality, comprises less than 4/10,000 of the atmosphere — as the principal cause of climate change because it provides the only way to link global warming to human activity.

Numerous scientists and climatologists point to the terrible flaw that the IPCC analysis totally ignores the impact upon climate of solar activity, water vapor, and effects of cloud formation on global air pressure, temperature and winds.  As Dr. Tim Ball, a former climate scientist at the University of Winnipeg, put it:  “The analogy that I use is that my car is not running that well, so I’m going to ignore the engine (which is the sun) and I’m going to ignore the transmission (which is the water vapor) and I’m going to look at one nut on the right rear wheel (which is the human-produced CO2) … the science is that bad!

He discusses that fact that actual data regarding global warming and sea level rise contradict the alarmists’ scare stories;  the fallacy of the “Consensus “ argument; and finishes with conclusions that contradict the thinking ChairmanWaxman used to justify the House of Representatives passing of the Cap and Trade bill.  To read the article in its entirety,  click here

Many things have recently come to light that further contradict the man-made global warming theory.    I will try to bring those to you in future blogs.

See    The Weakness of the AGW Theory-Part 2

The Weakness of the AGW Theory-Part 3

Cbdakota

Cap And Trade Cover-up by Obama Administration


While the admistration was coercing the OMB into coming up with the “it will only cost the price of a postage stamp a day (ca. $175/year)” for the impact of the House passed Cap and Trade bill,  it was  burying the Treasury Department’s assessment that the cost would be more than $1700 per family per year.

Ramireztooncapandtax072209

Cartoon by Ramirez—See his marvelous array of cartoons here

We have previously discussed the fact that the OMB’s “postage stamp” was bogus as it neglected to take in the effect on the GNP. see here The Treasury’s number coincides with that of the Heritage Foundation, the Brookings Institute and others.   The Treasury’s figure was pried-out by Chris Horner using the Freedom of Information Act.  Even then much of it was redacted.  So much for Obama’s promise of a “transparent administration”.

See the  full story here

Cbdakota

August CO2 Report


The Science and Public Policy Institute’s monthly CO2 report is now available.   It contain articles on OCEAN HEAT BUILDUP,  SEA LEVELS,  PREDICTIONS OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATIONS IN 2100,  THE QUITE SUN, WHY THE GREAT ICESHEETS WONT COLLAPSE,  ARCTIC  SEA  ICE  AREA, ETC.

Click here to read the report.

Cbdakota

Science and The Obama Administration—OSHA and the EPA


President Obama has stated he wants to “restore science to its rightful place”.   Now we are left to wonder how he squares that statement in view of his promotion of the man-made global theory  (see Cap and Trade).   Moreover,  it seems that he will tolerate more anti-science doings in his administration—-specifically in OSHA.   David Michaels is Obama’s nominee to head OSHA.

A Washington Times Editorial tells us that in the Supreme Court case, Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals all 9 justices …”agreed that trial judges could hold hearings without juries present to determine if proposed ‘expert testimony’ is “relevant and reliable,” based on objective criteria such as use of scientific method and peer reviews.  This way, a trial can be protected from being polluted by hired guns who may look and sound impressive enough to sway a jury that has no particular scientific expertise but who actually are peddling bogus theories or trumped-up evidence.”

Michaels has railed against this, saying that the ruling created a social imbalance away from the interests of plantiffs and their lawyers.  He also heads a group funded by George Soros’ Open Society Institute.  The group, Scientific Knowledge and Public Policy, was initially funded by a trust fund created from the silicone breast transplant scare (which subsequent studies have shown the scare was unfounded).

See the full story here.

Which brings me to the EPA.  A suit was filed by Massachusetts against the EPA saying that the EPA had to regulate greenhouse gases.  In a surprise ruling, the Supreme Court found that the petitioner had a good case and the EPA was charged by the Supreme Court to make a finding that CO2 was or was not a hazard.   The EPA‘s preliminary finding was that it is a hazard and should be regulated.  The EPA admits that they did not do any scientific study of their own but relied upon the IPCC 2007 report that concluded that man-made warming will result in a global catastrophe in the future. The EPA is soon to issue final ruling.

I don’t know what is more threatening,  passage of a Cap and Trade bill in the Senate to go along with the one passed in the House of Representatives or letting the EPA come up with regulations on how to reduce atmospheric CO2.  I have been predicting that the legislators would not enact cap and trade because they would be in danger of not being re-elected when the cost of that legislation was felt by the US citizens.  So, they would take the easy way and let the blame fall on the EPA if things turned out badly.

Now enter the US Chamber of Commerce which argues that the before a final decision is made that the EPA must be required to defend it scientific conclusions in front of an administrative law judge.  The EPA has said they don’t see the necessity of this. The following is statement by Senator James Inhofe, (Ok-R):

“Why would anyone oppose a full, open, transparent hearing to determine whether evidence supporting the most consequential regulatory decision of our time—affecting schools, hospitals, farms, apartment buildings, restaurants, nursing homes, and thousands of other sources—is up-to-date, accurate, and reflective of the best available scientific research? And why wouldn’t the Obama Administration, and its supporters in the environmental community, faced with a decision potentially imposing billions of dollars of costs on consumers and small businesses, favor a process that ensures maximum public participation and stakeholder input?”

“The answer is simple: in dismissing the Chamber’s petition as “frivolous,” EPA has made clear that, even before finalizing its regulation and considering thousands of public comments, it has already decided the question of endangerment. And in so doing, it has ignored, either deliberately or through omission, reams of scientific data, which the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has rigorously identified, undermining the case that greenhouse gas emissions endanger public health and welfare.

EPA has also made clear that it doesn’t want to hear dissenting voices on this important question. This runs contrary to President Obama’s speech last December, in which he expressed his views on scientific integrity in the administrative process. As he said, “It’s about listening to what our scientists have to say, even when it’s inconvenient — especially when it’s inconvenient.” (Emphasis added by Cbdakota)

Read Senator Inhofe’s full comments here.

Now that the President is on record for “restoring science etc……”  and “…..listening even when it is inconvenient”  shouldn’t you let him know that you want him to direct the EPA to have the hearing.

Cbdakota

Global Warming, Politics and Economy by Dr Akasofu


Translated from Japanese, Dr Syun Akasofu’s article “20 points of context on global warming, politics and the economy of the world” has been put online.  Dr Akasofu works at the International Arctic Research Center at the U of Alaska.  In his article he says that future global warming conferences, like the upcoming December Copenhagen Conference,  should be postponed until we know more science.  He has many more interesting comments such as:

8. One problem in this particular discipline of science is that scientists who base their research on computer simulations have become too arrogant, saying that they can predict the temperature in 2100, although too much is still unknown about the earth system. Ignoring natural causes of climate change and even unknown aspects of cloud physics, they rely on computer work in predicting the temperature rise in 2100. However, a computer is like a robot. It can perform only what it is instructed to do by the programs produced by the human brain. If a computer program is incorrect or inaccurate, the output will also be incorrect or inaccurate. In science, incorrect programs or hypotheses (produced by one or a group of scientists) are criticized by other scientists and can thus be improved. That is the way science should progress. However, the IPCC regards those who criticize them as “skeptics”, or “deniers”, etc., and brought this newborn and immature science to the international stage. They stated in 2007 that scientists have done all they can and that the science is settled, and the rest of the task should be in the hands of policy makers. Such a statement is very irresponsible.

10. The Obama administration is promoting wind power and solar power. However, there is no way to supply more than 10% of the US power needs (Obama says that they should try for 20%, but has he estimated the cost involved?) It is only about 2.5% at present. In any case, 80-90% of future electric power has to be found.

20. We should bring back the science of climate change to a basic science, avoiding interferences by policy makers and the world mass media. Only then can this particular science proceed in a scientifically healthy way. Only then can we discuss any global warming hypothesis as proponents and opponents (instead of as “believers” and “skeptics” or “deniers” in the religious sense), regardless of one side being in the majority or minority. In science, unlike in politics, a minority can be right.

While Dr Akasofu’s belief maybe accurate that Pres.Obama really wants to promote nuclear power, his left wing environmentalists don’t.  They will oppose with every lawsuit they can muster, every attempt at new nuke facilities.  While their success is not certain to stop these facilities, these environmentalists will delay startup and raise the cost.

Read all of Dr Akasofu  comments here

Cbdakota

The Rope to Hang Ourselves


We have been told that the Cap and Trade legislation will create millions of green jobs.  But thoughtful analysis plus experience in Europe tell us not to expect the new green jobs to be in millions.  And the analysis and experiences show that we will lose many more manufacturing jobs because the Cap and Trade bill rations and raises the price of energy in the US.

We have long known that the majority of the equipment needed for wind farms comes from overseas.   Now lets add to that knowledge.  It appears that the solar equipment will also be manufactured overseas.  The following quote is from the Energy Tribune’s entry “China’s Photovoltaic Industry: Exporting on the Cheap”:

“………it appears that Chinese PV producers will continue to push their panels onto the world market.  And they will do so at prices that undercut PV producers in the US and Europe.  Last month, the New York Times quoted Thomas M. Zarrella the chief executive of GT Solar International, a New Hampshire-based company that sells equipment to solar panel makers about the looming shift in global PV production.  ‘I don’t see Europe or the United States becoming major producers of solar products—-they’ll be consumers’, he said.”

The Energy Tribune blog notes that the pragmatic Chinese are exporting nearly all of their production overseas rather than using the panels in their own country. Read the blog here

Cap and Trade will construct the gallows and the Chinese will sell us the rope to hang ourselves.

Cbdakota

LET’S REDUCE FOREIGN CRUDE BY USING OUR OWN!


Why not use our own domestic oil supplies to reduce the amount of foreign crude we import!  Because our government restricts us from producing some 100 billion barrels of recoverable crude.   A recent exchange between Rep. Sestak (D Pa) and myself caused me to write this entry:
  • Rep. Sestak says that the US is without a comprehensive energy policy and that is why he voted for the Cap and Trade (ACES) bill.  But ACES does not improve our security but rather it jeopardizes it.
  • He says that he wants to reduce the amount of foreign crude oil used in the US.   If so, the best way to do that is to let our petroleum industry develop our Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) and ANWR oil fields.  We have four times more oil in these fields than we do in the fields we are presently allowed to produce.  But the Democrats and their militant environmentalist friends wont permit this to happen.
  • Russian, China, Brazil, Spain and Norway are obtaining OCS oil drilling leases from Cuba and the Bahamas.  In some cases the drilling will be less than 90 miles from the US.
  • The Democrats and the militant environmentalists say that it will take 10 years to develop those fields.  But Brazil is bringing in a large off-shore field in some 24 months.
  • Analysis shows that most of the 120 months that is typical in the US is due to government bureaucracy and environmental law suits.

The following is a more complete discussion of this issue and the source for the burger dot notes above.

In your letter’s 4th paragraph you say “For too long, this country has been without a comprehensive energy policy.”    We certainly agree on this point.   We have year by year increased the amount of foreign crude oil we import. Further, over those years the nation has sent untold billions of dollars to many countries that are not particularly friendly with us. And last year, when the supply got tight, the price of gasoline, rose to $4 per gallon.   You are right, our energy policy does not seem to be working.   The American Clean Energy and Security Act,  does nothing to make our energy policy cogent, and it  does not improve our security but rather jeopardizes it.   It seems odd that in your letter, you emphasize the need to reduce our nation’s use of crude oil, when ACES is clearly directed at the electrical utilities where crude oil is hardly used at all.  But lets discuss how we could really help improve our security.

It isn’t that we don’t have domestic crude oil.   The US  supplies about 40% of the our own crude oil needs from fields estimated to contain 25 billion barrels.  According to The US Geological Survey, there are other very large reserves that the US has.  That organization says that we have some 86 billion barrels of oil in the outer continental shelf (OCS).  In addition to that,  ANWR  is said to have reserves of 10 billion barrels.   The Baaken field in the Northern Plains is estimated to contain nearly 4 billion barrels—and there are estimates that the as yet unproven that Three Forks-Spanish formation may have equally as large reserves.  But OCS and ANWR are off limits because of environmental objections.  Just think how much better off we would be if we were allowed to produce the other 100 billion barrels reserves which are about four times greater than those reserves that we are allowed to use.    Robert Samuelson, in a Newsweek article titled THE BIAS AGAINST OIL AND GAS, says “Expanding any fossil-fuel production offends many Americans.  But policies placating this prejudice aren’t in our national interest.”  Read more here.

The Institute for Energy Research wrote to then President Bush urging him to increase domestic supplies by immediately repealing the Presidential Executive Order that established a moratorium on OCS energy production.  They wrote,

“Because of these outdated bans, more than 97 percent of our nation’s vast OCS remains fallow, with less than 3 percent being leased for energy production. We believe it self-destructive and immoral for us, as a nation to continue  to allow our consumers to suffer the economic consequences of government policies that deliberately restrict access to energy supplies.  The consequences of the OCS moratoria have been devastating to American energy security.  We are the only advanced country in the world that ties its own hands behind its back with such a policy.  Brazil, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Australia and Norway are all examples of advanced nations and allies that do not restrict their own energy production.   Americans are suffering unnecessarily.”

President Bush responded by removing the barriers.  But the Obama Administration has re-imposed so many restrictions that no US energy company can afford to move forward to tap these vast resources.   And get this, Cuba and the Bahamas have signed deals with China, India, Russia, Brazil,  Spain,  and Norway to begin exploratory drilling in the Caribbean .

“Wouldn’t it be ironic if the Russians could drill closer to our shores than American oil and gas companies? The losers would be the American consumers who are cut off from the trillions of dollars in government revenue and thousands of new jobs that could be created if more of America’s oil and natural gas resources could be developed,” Katie Matusic, media relations manager for the oil industry lobbying group American Petroleum Institute, wrote in an e-mail.

It would make most Americans mad if they were to learn that our government is letting others have this oil. Here again the mainstream media is covering for the radical environmentalists as I have yet to read about this in my local newspapers or hear it on TV.   The BBC, in an 29 July entry reported that  Russia is planning to drill off Cuba.  And the BBC added:

Russia is to begin oil exploration in the Gulf of Mexico, after signing a deal with Cuba, says Cuban state media. The Cuban state media are reporting this so it’s not a secret.   Read more here.

The Democrats have another strategy that says, well it will take 10 years to bring on the production and that is too late.   This is false on several levels.    Brazil has tapped a large OCS field and they are on schedule to have it producing oil in 24 months.  Why then do we have to take 120 months?   A Reasononline entry explains  why it takes so long in the United States.

“In Anchorage last month, Marilyn Crockett, executive director of the Alaska Oil and Gas Association, explained to me the following time frame for ANWR drilling: Expect 12 months or more for an Environmental Impact Statement after Congress approves drilling. And this is working fast.  It would likely take much longer.  Expect 12 to 18 months for the Department of Interior to draw up and bid out the lease-sale process.  Plan on two years for the oil companies to test drilling and analysis. Drilling and transport of heavy equipment can only be done in the winter months when the permafrost ground is solidly frozen, from December through April. Concurrently with oil drilling, a 75 mile pipeline spur needs to be built to connect to the main Alyeska pipeline from Prudhoe Bay to the Southern shipping port..  However, this time frame does not allow for environmental lawsuits ‘every step of the way’ as Crockett warned.  The rest of the 10 year time frame is to allow for lawsuits trying to prevent or harass production in one way or another. “

So, the majority of the time needed is due to government bureaucracy and the militant environmentalists.   If Congress were really serious about reducing oil imports, they could make it happen.  But the extreme environmentalists have them by some body part and are making them toe their green line .

The second reason why the “its always too late to drill” not valid is that the oil import situation is going to get worse long before it gets better.   The demand for energy is not going to go away.   India, China, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, etc want to bring their less developed nation’s population up to standards comparable to those that developed nations have.   They have categorically stated they are going to continue to use fossil fuels irrespective of what Europe, the US and Japan think.  As the price for manufacturing in the US skyrockets due to the rationing of lower cost fossil fuel forcing us to use high priced “renewable fuels” we will see our manufacturing sector leave for more economically friendly shores.   And the jobs will go to those countries.   It is laughable that there seems to be people who believe that these nations will give in and join us in the folly of rationing fossil fuels.  Read here to disabuse yourself of the idea that these nations are going to change their minds.

Cbdakota